Sometimes, all a manager can do is sit back and shake his head.
Joe Torre was forced to sit and watch a high-caliber team under perform and make too many mistakes in a forgetful 4-1 NLCS series loss to the Philadelphia Phillies.
In their four losses, the Dodgers actually outhit the Phillies 35-34.
Considering that they went 79-15 during the regular season when outhitting an opponent, that’s a pitiful result for the Dodgers.
They had too many runners left on base or caught stealing.
Casey Blake and Rafael Furcal batted a combined 5-for-40 (.125) in the NLCS.
Even worse, Furcal scored zero runs during the series. His lack of production at the top of the order further incapacitated an already struggling lineup.
Matt Kemp, despite a mammoth home run, struck out eight times in only 20 at-bats.
Manny Ramirez hit a gift-wrapped changeup off Cole Hamels for his only two RBI of the series, but otherwise was dismantled by fastballs in on his hands.
As if the offensive problems weren’t devastating enough, the pitching staff collapsed under the weight of strenuous regular season.
The bullpen proved to indeed be overworked, showing multiple times the inability to hold a deficit down, and instead allowing leads to grow out of control.
The starting pitchers couldn’t navigate past the fifth inning, falling victim to a lack of first pitch strikes eventually resulting in fastballs being tattered all around the yard.
It was a complete and utter collapse after the team had gritted out a three-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals in the divisional series.
Now, the front office is faced with many decisions as they have key position players either growing old or becoming detraction for their lack of production on the field.
The question then becomes: with two straight exits in the league championship series to the Phillies, has this team peaked?
Not quite, but the current Dodgers roster just doesn’t have that extra gear that a World Series champion possesses.
The additions of Jim Thome, Ronnie Belliard, and Vicente Padilla were an excellent patchwork job by general manager Ned Colletti to ensure a second consecutive NL West title, but they aren’t enough to unseat the Phillies atop the NL.
They didn’t have one player bat .300 this season, even though they led the NL in batting average and on base percentage, and that is something that needs to change. Too many players went up to the plate looking for a walk late in the season rather than looking to drive the ball somewhere.
This is a problem that needs fixing, and the only way to do it is to make some aggressive moves for bats this offseason.
The Dodgers have the most potential players up for free agency with 16, and the big chip in that pile will be Manny Ramirez and his decision on a $20 million player option for 2010.
Ramirez will more than likely take the money and come back to LA next year, as no other team will be willing to shell out that kind of cash.
That would leave the team with 15 free agents possibly departing, giving Colletti a lot of backup positions to fill.
As you will see from the breakdown below, however, the Dodgers are very limited by the contracts they possess and the below average free agent market in play this offseason. In turn, Colletti will have to be creative in bringing on quality backups for the starters to give this team the necessary depth for a World Series championship run.
(Keep in mind that moving forward, they have to pay Andruw Jones $3.2 million and Will Ohman $200,000)
Infield
James Loney has an unbelievable glove at first base and is certainly an asset in the field.
At the plate, he hits for a high average but doesn’t provide the pop from a corner infielder that is crucial in the National League. In the American League, you can get away with less power from your first baseman because of a designated hitter to counter-balance it.
In the Senior Circuit, you have to get power from that position because of the pitcher occupying a spot in the order. This is why Loney just doesn’t cut it in my opinion, but he could be of great value to an American League club like the Tampa Bay Rays.
Casey Blake and Rafael Furcal will hold their jobs on the left side of the infield.
Blake is locked into a contract through 2011 with a club option for 2012.
Even though he is getting up there in age, he can still be a solid veteran presence on a young club that needs a decent bat to shore up the order.
Furcal is owed $9.5 million next season, and his play on the field is falling quickly.
Aside from a surge in the final two weeks of the season, Furcal maintained a below average on base percentage for a leadoff hitter.
Russell Martin had a shockingly bad season and showed no signs of snapping out of his spell offensively.
Second base is an open race in Los Angeles and is the most glaring hole in the roster.
Both Ronnie Belliard and Orlando Hudson are going to be free agents, and I don’t see either of them returning for 2010, which means that finding an everyday second baseman is a top priority for this team.
The Florida Marlins’ Dan Uggla has been speculated as a possible option for the club, and his powerful bat would be an excellent addition to a lineup in desperate need of pop.
I think this would be the best possible solution for both the short and long term, and they could look at dealing pieces like Loney for Uggla. They could throw in a bullpen arm like Ronald Belisario and a deal could be struck if the Marlins like what is offered.
Projcted starting infield: Loney, Uggla, Furcal, Blake
Outfield
Unfortunately, Manny Ramirez possesses a player option for 2010 that could limit the Dodgers financially. He is due to receive $10 million dollars next season, and then another $10 million paid out through 2013.
Considering his diminishing bat speed, life-long inability to field, and a child-like approach in the clubhouse, he has no value to this team moving forward. However, he will most likely be back next season, and the Dodgers will have to run him out there everyday as to not be wasting money.
We saw them do it with Jason Schmidt this season, and they won’t break habit with Ramirez.
The team needs to make sure Ramirez trains hard in the offseason, and also needs to hope that the reason for his second half swoon was due to him missing 50 games and losing his timing at the plate.
Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are undoubtedly the future of the franchise and give the outfield excellent stability both offensively and defensively.
Both youngsters exploded this season to become one of the most dangerous outfield combinations in baseball.
A 40-40 season is well within the grasp of Kemp in his future, especially with the way he developed more power at the plate in ’09. He shortened up his swing to cut down on strikeouts, fanning 14 fewer times this season in 10 more plate appearances than last season.
Ethier, dubbed Mr. Miracle by Vin Scully, crushed four walk-off home runs this season and may have single-handedly won the NL West for the Dodgers.
Despite his explosive power numbers, Ethier saw a two point drop in slugging percentage and a 14 point drop in on base percentage from last season, not to mention a 33-point drop in batting average.
I think the Dodgers can live with his being more of an all-or-nothing type player, because they need that big bat in the middle of the order to command respect from opposing pitchers. The key to offsetting that characteristic of his is to surround him with good contact hitters that reach base frequently.
Projected starting outfield: Ramirez, Kemp, Ethier
Starting Pitching
The lingering issue for the Dodgers it that they lack a staff ace.
Chad Billingsley was the pre-anointed ace, but he proved to be flat out unreliable, and that’s exactly what makes Billingsley a risky proposition going forward for the Dodgers.
I love the arsenal he brings to the hill; a crisp fastball, a biting curveball, and a changeup to boot. Yet he consistently displays an inability to navigate out of difficult innings.
Clayton Kershaw made his case for taking the top spot in the rotation, but he is still just 21-years-old.
However, he could do what Felix Hernandez did in Seattle, and take over the pitching staff at a young age.
Speaking of Felix, who is still yet to sign an extension with Mariners, the Dodgers need to be aggressive in pursuit of the young right-hander. But more to come on that later in the week. …
Hiroki Kuroda is locked into a contract for over $15 million next season, and I think that without the numerous injuries he suffered last season, he woulnd’t have had that blowup against the Phillies in the NLCS.
Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla are two of the 16 free agents, and it’s unlikely that they will return because of their desire for multi-year deals in which the Dodgers really don’t want to commit.
Some might make the case that Wolf earned the multi-year deal by becoming the workhorse of this staff in the second half of the season, but I don’t see him maintaining that level of production next season.
He is 33-years old now, which is not by any means old, but his career ERA of 4.13 indicates that his mark in ’09 (3.23) will regress closer to he mean next season, as this season marked the first time he had a sub-four in seven season.
I think southpaw Scott Elbert will slide into the back of the rotation and take over the starts left vacant by Wolf.
He was used out of the bullpen this season, but he showed good poise on the mound and his track record of starting in the minors’ projects well for the future.
Just 23-years old and a first round pick in the 2004 draft, I like the thought of sending him to the mound every fifth day for five innings of solid contributions.
The final spot in the rotation will be up for grabs, and they could resign Jon Garland to plug into the rotation. He performed very well in his time with the Dodgers this season, but the expensive option the team holds over him might the deciding factor in his departing from LA after only a handful of starts.
Projected starting rotation: Kuroda, Kershaw, Billingsley, TBD, Elbert
Relief Pitching
Yes, Jonathan Broxton did some very bad things.
No, it is not time to bail on the big guy.
The guy throws 100+ MPH with a 93 MPH slider, and that’s something you just can’t teach.
Broxton simply falters from time to time because he loses confidence in his ability to overpower a hitter and he starts to aim his pitchers too much. This causes him to lose control of that dominant fastball and work from behind in counts, forcing him to throw fastballs over the heart of the plate.
And no matter how hard you throw, a major league hitter can drive a fastball over the plate.
Besides the closer role, the bullpen was the shining star of the team until the NLCS.
George Sherrill gave up an uncharacteristic home run to a left-handed hitter in Game One, and after that it seemed like the wind came out of the sails of the unit as a whole.
They were unable to hold down deficits to allow the offense a chance to mount a comeback, and they gave up far too many home runs to the Phillies while doing so.
Ronald Belisario and Ramon Troncoso were the hidden gems of last season, shouldering the load for most of the regular season and pitching far beyond what their arms had seen in past seasons in the minors.
It will be interesting to see how their right arms bounce back from such a strenuous season, because both Cory Wade and James McDonald suffered the same fate of overworked arms in ’08 causing arm troubles in ‘09—making me very cautious in projecting more success for Troncoso and Belisario next season.
Another pitcher who had arm problems in ’08 bounced back and returned to form in ’09, as Hong Chi-Kuo continued to baffle trainer Stan Conte with his ability to rebound from four different surgeries on his throwing arm.
He will be back next season, and along with Sherrill and Broxton, makes for a tough late-inning tripod.
But, as they showed in the NLCS, each one is vulnerable and has to work hard to shore up their deficiencies on the mound in order for this team to take things to another level.
Jeff Weaver and Guillermo Mota are both free agents, and I don’t see any value in resigning either.
Torre didn’t have the confidence to bring them to the NLCS, and that tells me that the likes of Eric Stults could just as easily fill that role in the bullpen.
Projected bullpen: Broxton, Sherrill, Troncoso, Belisario, Kuo
So is it time to blow up the Dodgers?
I don’t think quite yet, but that is more because of a lot of limiting factors that are going to hinder the Dodgers ability to reshape the roster.
There are certainly major issues that need to be addressed if Joe Torre wants to make a run at the World Series in his final season with the Dodgers, and I think that Torre’s position will drastically affect the way Colletti handles the offseason.
Colletti will be hesitant to make blockbuster deals for important players on the club. He will most likely want to keep the core of the team intact so that Torre can have his best run at taking this team to the pinnacle in 2010.
However, it has been nine seasons since Torre added a World Series ring to his collection, and something has to be added to put this team over the top.
A slugger like Dan Uggla could really give the team some new blood and a long-term solution at a position that has been aging for years, starting with Jeff Kent and ending with Orlando Hudson.
Anything short of a World Series championship will be a disappointment for Dodger fans next season, but with the addition of Uggla and one more quality starting pitcher, this team is in line to make a run at that championship in 2010.
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