If you know the feeling when you walk into a restaurant and the server tells you the place is out of your favorite dish, you can empathize with baseball executives heading into this offseason.
Free agency typically provides general managers with a wide-ranging selection of players who can improve their chances heading into the upcoming season. This offseason, though, it’s as if baseball is out of everything on the menu.
Winter might actually feel like August in Death Valley for the likes of hopeful contenders in 2017. The list of available impact players is shorter than that of presidents on U.S. currency, making a typically prosperous time seem like a drought for championship-thirsty organizations.
All of it means that contenders will have to turn their attention toward the trade market to try to improve their teams for the upcoming season. And as those teams engage in bidding wars with sellers, this winter could have more of a trade deadline-like feel to it.
This year’s class features Toronto Blue Jays first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, but he slates more as an AL player. His 2016 teammate, outfielder Jose Bautista, offers similar power at the plate but, at 36 years old, is less of a long-term solution. Los Angeles Dodgers third baseman Justin Turner rounds out a paltry list of impact position players, while there isn’t a single front-line starting pitcher available.
Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Jeremy Hellickson is the best among them but only had a 3.71 ERA in 32 starts with the club last season. His 3.98 FIP (fielding independent pitching) suggests he was worse than traditional metrics might otherwise indicate.
Back-end relief is the area that boasts the most talent. Chicago Cubs lefty Aroldis Chapman, Dodgers reliever Kenley Jansen and Washington Nationals righty Mark Melancon are all elite closers available for hire.
But one bullpen signing isn’t the answer for teams eying a World Series.
Those teams need to find players under contract on other teams. That’s the only way they will drastically improve.
The good news: The dearth of free agents might motivate rebuilding teams to be more active in trading MLB talent this winter.
Teams like the Chicago White Sox, Detroit Tigers and Milwaukee Brewers are undergoing some form of a rebuild and have players on their rosters who could impact a division race.
The lack of free agents could prompt teams to overpay for players like White Sox left-handed starter Chris Sale, Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun or Tigers first baseman Miguel Cabrera and starting pitcher Justin Verlander.
The New York Yankees (No. 2), Houston Astros (No. 3), Dodgers (No. 5), Washington Nationals (No. 6) and Boston Red Sox (No. 7) are all contenders in 2017 with top-10 farm systems, according to MLB.com’s midseason rankings.
Each of those teams made playoff appearances in at least one of the last two seasons. The Dodgers, Nationals and Red Sox were all division winners in 2016.
Add in the World Series champion Chicago Cubs and AL West champ Texas Rangers, both also have promising prospects they could deal, and sellers could be overpaid for star players.
The teams primed to contend in 2017 have the kind prospects selling teams might be looking for. Any team rebuilding will want young talent in return.
So a bidding war could easily ensue among these contenders.
Verlander, Cabrera, Braun and, particularly Sale, who is playing under a team-friendly deal, would each command a huge haul of prospects that could alter the future of their respective organizations.
The circumstances of this year’s free-agent class will raise the demand for under-contract stars to unusually high levels for this time of year.
Of course, there is no hard offseason trade deadline. Only one, which organizations impose on themselves for the benefit of knowing their respective rosters heading into spring training.
But such a weak free-agent class drives up the demand in the trade market. While typically teams eying contention in the upcoming season are the most active during the offseason, baseball could see unusually high activity among all of its clubs.
Teams looking to rebuild will want to take advantage of the market and those organizations desperate to add to their 2017 rosters.
With desperation often comes frenzy.
The more interest teams gain on players, the longer they might drag out trade talks, trying to induce teams into bidding wars. That kind of drama is usually reserved for the July trading period.
But with very few free agents who can impact a division race, teams have nowhere to turn but to one another.
Which could all spur the most head-spinning offseason baseball has seen in some time.
Seth Gruen is a national baseball columnist for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @SethGruen.
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