Justin Verlander has struggled this year. Actually, that’s a bit generous.
Sugarcoating aside, he has been terrible. His current 4.54 ERA is the second-highest of his career, and his strikeout total is at its lowest since 2006, his first full season in the big leagues. His 1.40 WHIP is tied for the highest in his career, and he just hasn’t been the dominant ace he once was.
However, maybe that ace is starting to come back as the games become more important. He pitched a gem two starts ago against the Royals, the Tigers’ biggest AL Central competitors, and outdueled White Sox ace Chris Sale on Wednesday.
In that start against Chicago, he was masterful. He allowed seven hits, struck out six and did not walk a batter while pitching eight innings for only the second time all season.
Verlander’s recent performance is almost a carbon copy of last year's. He was not quite as bad in 2013 as he has been so far this year, but it seems that he is once again flipping a switch as October nears.
In last year’s postseason, Verlander took the team on his back, leading the Tigers past the Athletics with two stellar outings in the ALDS. He started Games 2 and 5, and his two fantastic outings in those games brought back memories from his Cy Young-winning 2012 season.
In Game 2, he struck out 11 in seven scoreless innings of work, but the Tigers couldn’t muster any offense and lost 1-0. Then, with the season on the line in a winner-take-all Game 5, Verlander prolonged the season with 10 more strikeouts in eight scoreless innings, catapulting Detroit into the next round.
He turned in a similar effort in Game 3 of the ALCS, but the one run he gave up in eight innings was enough to get him the loss as the Tigers once again came out on the short side of a 1-0 game.
2014 has been eerily similar. He started the season strong but ran into a wall in the second month of the season. He pitched poorly in May, June and July, amassing ERAs of 5.54, 6.82 and 4.78, respectively.
He started pitching better in August, but then a debacle against the Pirates saw him pitch only one inning, give up five runs and then injure himself running to first after a sacrifice bunt. That fluke injury forced him to miss some time, and it seemed like he and his team had both hit rock bottom.
Even after acquiring David Price from the Rays in a stunning trade minutes before the trade deadline, the Tigers were out of first place and in danger of missing the playoffs altogether. The bullpen was so bad that some speculated about the Tigers inserting Verlander into the closer’s role for the postseason.
The Tigers decided to stick with Verlander in the rotation, and he has made good on that trust. The Tigers are 6-1 in Verlander’s seven starts since returning to the rotation, and he has gotten the victory in five of those.
Detroit’s magic number is now three, meaning if a combination of Tigers wins and Royals losses reaches three, the Tigers clinch the division and avoid the treacherous one-off Wild Card Game.
If Verlander is right, which I think he is now, the Tigers are going to be scary over the course of a five- or seven-game playoff series.
An overpowering pitching rotation of Max Scherzer, David Price, Verlander and Rick Porcello will be very tough for any opponent, and the offense is pretty good as well.
Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are two of the best hitters in the entire MLB, and the additions of Ian Kinsler and Rajai Davis give the lineup a dynamic it didn’t have last year. For example, when Davis stole his 35th base of the season in Wednesday’s win against the White Sox, it matched the number of steals the Tigers stole as a team in 2013.
In last year’s playoff run that ended in the ALCS against the Red Sox, the offense did not have anything even resembling a running threat, forcing the Tigers to play base-to-base baseball, basically waiting for an extra-base hit or a string of hits to score runs.
Now, though, they have Davis, who has over 300 stolen bases in his career. He has been one of the league’s most prolific base stealers over the past six years; he has averaged 42 steals over those years. You can guarantee that if the Tigers are locked in a close game, Brad Ausmus will have the confidence to give Davis the green light to get into scoring position.
Back to pitching, the bullpen has been disastrous for most of the season. The Tigers signed Joe Nathan in the offseason, but his ERA has been around five all year. They acquired Joakim Soria at the deadline for some late-inning help, and Anibal Sanchez has returned from the disabled list as a reliever as well.
However, Verlander might be the X-factor. Which one will show up: the terrific Verlander or the one with a 4.50 ERA?
If last year is any indication, Verlander will turn it on and be an ace. If he can pitch at the same level he did in last year’s postseason, the Tigers have to be dark-horse candidates to advance all the way to the World Series.
The American League is loaded with the likes of the Angels, Orioles, and A’s, but with Verlander at his best, the Tigers have three Cy Young-caliber pitchers to go along with one of the best offenses in the league.
It’s going to come down to Verlander, and if he is up to the task, watch out for the Detroit Tigers.
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