What happens to a team when its strongest attribute goes south? Although the Dodgers' hitting was nothing to write home about, what really ruined them was their pitching.
A 5.30 ERA in the postseason. A 7.30 ERA in the NLCS. Starters like Kershaw, Wolf, and Kuroda fell apart against the Phillies.
Who would have thought it? Would the Dodgers have won their division if their pitchers had pitched like this in the regular season? Probably not.
By contrast, the Phillies had ERAs of 3.04 in the postseason, and 3.07 in the NLCS, basically Dodgers type numbers.
The Dodgers "outhit" the Phillies. In batting average, that is, .232 to .231, with two more hits in eight more at-bats. This, after being first in the National League in this regard.
But the Phillies' batting was superior in every other way: 10 home runs to six; 19 extra base hits to nine, and tellingly, 23 walks to 12. Put another way, the Phillies had many more total bases (78 to 59) and a much higher on base percentage or OBP, (.348 to .287).
By multiplying total bases by the respective OBPs, the Phillies led in (theoretical) runs created, 27 to 17. The actual tally was 35 to 16, meaning that the Dodgers were sabermetrically unlucky for about nine runs (small sample size), but it hardly made a difference.
The Phillies' "Pythagorean" (theoretical) winning percentage was .827 using actual runs, and .716 using runs created, versus an actual percentage of .800. Either way, the Phillies should have won at least "three and a half" games out of five, so far, which rounds to four.
The Dodgers' one win started out as pitching duel between Vicente Padilla and Pedro Martinez, but was decided by their better bullpen. And even the division series was won by the bullpen, with Padilla earning the only victory for the starters.
To beat the Yankees (or the Angels) in the World Series, the Phillies will have to maintain their strong hitting, while continuing to "get lucky" (perform above normal) with their pitching, as the underdog St. Louis Cardinals did in 2006.
Had the Dodgers advanced, they would have had to get lucky with their hitting, while maintaining strong pitching. But that is precisely what did NOT happen for them in the NLCS.
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