Jose Fernandez is still learning how to make a deliberate comeback.
He is coming back from the first significant injury of his baseball life. It’s been a long process to this point as he nears his return to the Miami Marlins sometime within the next month, if everything stays on schedule. His natural tendency is to throttle forward and punch it, especially since he hasn’t pitched in the majors in more than a year.
That is why the Marlins must protect their ace from himself.
The 22-year-old Fernandez made his first rehab start Saturday since having Tommy John surgery in May 2014. He cranked it up, as he is known to do, his fastball topping out at 99 mph in the 54-pitch outing for Class A Jupiter. His two strikeouts both came on 97 mph fastballs.
“That means I was a little amped up,” Fernandez told reporters after the game.
The outing was a success despite Fernandez allowing five runs on eight hits in three innings because he came out of it healthy. And as long as that continues to happen, the final lines will not matter too much.
The lines that will matter during Fernandez’s rehab are those of the Marlins. Where they sit in the National League East standings at the time their ace is set to return should have more of an effect on how he is deployed going forward.
Their need for Fernandez is voided if they continue to torpedo downward in the standings. Their season is already wasting away at 10 games under .500 and seven games out of first place with three teams in front of them. They are farther back in the wild-card standings, with more teams to beat out.
Their rotation has been depleted with Mat Latos, Henderson Alvarez and Jarred Cosart all on the disabled list with Fernandez, and none of them have been very effective when they have been healthy. Through Monday's action, the rotation’s ERA is 4.42, which ranks 11th out of 15 NL teams. Heading into Monday's loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, in which fill-in starter Brad Hand lasted less than an inning and allowed six earned runs on six hits, the Marlins also ranked 11th in the NL in WAR (2.4), per FanGraphs.
The injuries to Alvarez, Latos and Cosart—those three were expected to lead the rotation during Fernandez’s injury—have been significant, but so have their shoddy performances.
“Is it a big blow? Absolutely,” manager Dan Jennings told reporters. "Those guys came into the season one, two and three.”
Because of where the Marlins stand, and how they got there in the first place, Fernandez is undoubtedly eyeing his return to stall the rotation’s struggles and find a way to pitch the Marlins back into relevancy. But that is the thought process of a young pitcher and completely unrealistic, as the Marlins are far from a single pitcher on an innings limit saving their season.
The bullpen has thrown 195 innings, the second-highest total in the league, and its ERA (3.74) and WHIP (1.33) are 11th.
The offense ranks 11th in OBP (.309), OPS (.686), weighted on-base average (.301), 12th in slugging percentage (.377) and 13th in weighted runs created plus (87), according to FanGraphs.
Fernandez has been patient through his entire recovery, and in spring training he even acknowledged he had surprised himself with that fact.
“Knowing how I am, I thought I was going to be crazy,” Fernandez told reporters in February. “It hasn’t been easy. But I think this surgery teaches you a lot. It teaches you as a person and teaches you how to be patient.”
But patience can wear thin. The Marlins as a franchise know that—their 2012 fire sale is plenty of proof—and the team’s standing could make their ace a little jumpy as his return date draws closer.
Fernandez is on a five-start plan with strict limits on pitch counts. His next start is expected to be Friday, and then the Marlins will discuss his next steps in the process.
What should also be discussed is if the Marlins can realistically find their way back into the playoff race. And with that, reassuring themselves that Fernandez’s tight leash cannot wriggle loose at any point, especially if games become meaningless after his return. Fernandez has to continue surprising himself with patience.
"No pain. I feel great. I'm really proud of the progress I've made in 3 months. Being patient is the biggest thing." -José Fernandez
— #VoteMarlins (@Marlins) August 13, 2014
He is a franchise cornerstone, the pitching equivalent to Giancarlo Stanton. Handling his comeback with the utmost care is the way to go. No matter what.
So far, Fernandez seems to understand that.
"I feel really, really healthy," Fernandez told reporters after his rehab start, "and I can't ask for anything else."
Neither can the Marlins.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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