The San Francisco Giants were coming up short for a while there. After going into 2016 amid loads of hype, they were under .500 as recently as May 10.
But all of a sudden, the Giants are making it look suspiciously like an even year.
It took a confrontation with reigning Cy Young winner/freak of nature Jake Arrieta and the Chicago Cubs Friday at AT&T Park to snap the Giants' eight-game win streak. But they got right back in the proverbial driver's seat Saturday, beating the Cubs 5-3 to run their record to 26-19.
That's one bit of good news for the Giants. The other bit of good news is that an old standby is beginning to resemble his old self for the first time in a long time.
Matt Cain was the Giants' biggest contributor in Saturday's win, clubbing a two-run double and stifling the Cubs' high-powered offense with six one-run innings. That's now three strong starts in a row for the veteran right-hander, as he allowed only three runs across 15 innings in his previous two.
Like that, an ERA that was a problematic 7.84 is now down to a considerably less problematic 5.37. And quite possibly even falling further.
There's certainly no ignoring that Cain's recent travels have been fraught with peril. He was terrific (and literally perfect one time) in posting a 2.93 ERA between 2009 and 2012, but he managed just a 4.37 ERA and struggled with injuries between 2013 and 2015. After having surgery on his arm during spring training and then getting off to a slow start, it seemed like 2016 was going to bring more of the same.
Things seem different now. Asked to explain what Cain has found in his last couple of outings, Giants skipper Bruce Bochy theorized the big change has been a mental one.
"His bullpens have been fine, and his pregame warm-ups," Bochy said after Cain silenced the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 15, per Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group. "In the game, it just wasn't going well for him. I think he's realizing, 'Hey, I'm fine, and my stuff is great. I'm healthy.' It's all about the confidence now that he's settled in with."
The most noticeable difference is in how aggressively Cain is going right at hitters. He was throwing first-pitch strikes 62.1 percent of the time in his first six outings. He upped that to 70.7 in his next two and kept it going with first-pitch strikes to 18 of the 25 Cubs (72 percent) he faced Saturday.
That's one way to snap out of a slump, but it never hurts to also have better stuff. Though data for Saturday's outing isn't available yet, Baseball Savant reveals that Cain's average spin rates this season break down like so:
- First 6 GS: 2,437 rpm
- Next 2 GS: 2,526 rpm
It's going to take more than just three starts for a definitive conclusion to form, but Cain's resurgence doesn't appear to be well-timed good luck playing a trick on the Giants. He's pitching like a guy who wants to be a weapon again.
And at the thought of that, you can almost hear the rest of the National League letting out a groan.
For the competition, the thought of the Giants having another weapon in their starting rotation alone is distressing enough. This is, after all, one of only two rotations in the league that features three qualified starters with ERAs 2.70 or under.
That's the trio of Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija. The Giants knew what they were going to get from Bumgarner this year, and they've gotten even more than they bargained $220 million for out of Cueto and Samardzija. They've been worth every penny and then some.
“They’re definitely the catalyst,” right fielder Hunter Pence said this week of the club's star-studded rotation, per John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. "It makes you look really good when your starting pitching is doing that kind of exceptional work. It’s not to be taken lightly but enjoyed.”
The Giants lineup isn't too shabby in its own right. All the key figures from an offense that finished fourth in the National League in OPS in 2015 are back. And though the 2016 offense has been guilty of starting and stopping, it could soon get going for good. Pence and Brandon Belt are having terrific seasons, and Brandon Crawford and Denard Span are showing signs of life.
So is Buster Posey. After narrowly missing a home run Friday, he definitely didn't miss against Jon Lester in Saturday's game:
Where things aren't all happiness and sunshine is in the Giants bullpen. Following yet another home run served up by Santiago Casilla, it now has a 4.01 ERA that ranks in the bottom half of the league.
It's a bit soon to say the sky is falling, though.
The Giants bullpen's collective ERA is skewed by some especially bad performances by Vin Mazzaro, Chris Heston and Mike Broadway. With a 2.04 ERA and 21 strikeouts in 17.2 innings, even Casilla is doing well despite the home runs. And with Chris Haft of MLB.com reporting right-hander Sergio Romo is close to returning from a strained flexor tendon, the Giants bullpen is about to get a key piece back.
That is to say, the Giants may not be far from pretty much having it all. Cain's return to effectiveness means their rotation is about more than just its three best guys. The starters are backed by an offense with plenty of potential and a bullpen that could soon be stabilized.
As it is, the coming-together process the Giants are undertaking has already been good enough to put them atop the NL West. Coming into the year, that's where they expected to be sooner or later.
And from the looks of things, they mean to stay there.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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