In 2010, Matt Kemp had a -15 DRS. Before I define and explain, let me put in perspective, if only for shock value.
In 2010, Juan Rivera had a -8 DRS.
Yes, the same Juan Rivera who attacks fly balls with the same ferocity that Dodger fans chase beach balls with on a lazy Sunday afternoon.
For the layman, DRS stands for "defensive runs saved." Among the worst defensive outfielders, according to DRS, are Carlos Lee (shocking), Jonny Gomes, Andre Ethier (Dodgers outfield not faring too well, eh?), and Scott Podsednik.
Also making the top 10 (or bottom 10, as it were) is BJ Upton. Upton is pretty universally renowned for his defense, so I'll take DRS for what it's worth.
Nevertheless, any Dodgers fan can attest to a falloff, if not total meltdown, of Kemp’s defense in 2010.
Using any measuring stick available, including my own peepers, Kemp took a precipitous fall last year. Whether he was overrated to begin with is another question in itself.
Allow me to humbly submit the following: that he was not overrated, that he is a star, and that he will only get better.
Last year was an aberration, defensively and offensively, and Kemp should bounce back in a major way in 2011.
In his first three seasons after his 52-game rookie campaign, Kemp batted .342 (in 292 ABs), .290, and .297, respectively. In 2010, he fell to .249.
Never a high OBP guy, Kemp still maintained a .350-ish on-base percentage those same three seasons, until falling off to .310 last year.
His strikeout total rose from 139 in 2009 to 180 last season, and his strikeout percentage was 28.2, the highest of his career. His walks stayed about the same, but his stolen base percentage went from 34 SB/8 CS (caught stealing) to 19 SB/15 CS.
From the look of things, Kemp swung at just about anything last year, and when he connected he hit for power. His fly ball percentage was higher than ever before, and his line drive percentage was lower than ever.
Its hard to demonstrably prove a guy tries to hit homers, and you’ll never find a player admitting as much, but the preponderance of evidence indicates Kemp may been doing just that. His total of 28 home runs was the highest of his career.
That’s about the only positive Kemp can take from his 2010 campaign.
Last year's numbers are giant valleys for a 25-year-old stud to have, and the situation bears questioning as to what exactly Kemp is doing to prepare himself, and how seriously he's taking the game.
So, where is the guy's career going?
The good news: Kemp is still a world class athlete. Like Deion Sanders, Lebron James, Dave Winfield, and Randy Moss, he probably could have played any pro sport he chose.
If Kemp merely reverts to his 2008 or 2009 form, he should hit nearly .300 with close to 30 homers. It's hard to imagine he'll again be thrown out nearly 50 percent of the time on stolen base attempts, if only because he won't be allowed to run if he continues to get pegged at such a dismal rate.
Kemp is not hurt, so there's no reason to question his health. Rather, it seems to be merely a matter of desire and effort. While those intangibles cannot be quantified, Kemp's age and track record point to a bounce-back year.
I'll be surprised if he doesn’t have his best year yet in 2011.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments