A chill in the air, "Deck the Halls" blaring in every department store and the New York Yankees throwing gobs of cash at a top-tier free agent—those are the signs that tell us winter is on its way.
This year, though, the Yankees are threatening to break with tradition.
On Nov. 3, as the hot stove was just crackling to life, Mark Feinsand and Bill Madden of the New York Daily News reported that after handing out $450 million in contracts to free agents Masahiro Tanaka, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran last year, the Yankees weren't "looking to add any more $100 million deals to their payroll."
Bob Nightengale of USA Today concurred, predicting the Yankees, despite finishing 84-78 and missing the playoffs, would stand pat and try "to keep their team from a year ago intact."
Not everyone was convinced. Super-agent Scott Boras spelled it out to Nightengale: "The Steinbrenner history has always been 'We're going to win.' It serves their brand."
Boras' star client this offseason is Max Scherzer, the pre-eminent arm in a crowded market. Not coincidentally, Scherzer and New York have been linked in more than a few rumors and rumblings.
Nothing's moved past the speculation phase, but CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman thinks the Yankees "may revisit their initial instinct to largely sit this winter out," and that Scherzer could be the reason why.
He's certainly tempting. New York needs pitching (what club doesn't?), and Scherzer can flat-out pitch.
After winning the American League Cy Young award in 2013, the 30-year-old right-hander posted a 3.15 ERA with 252 strikeouts in 220.1 innings for the AL Central champion Detroit Tigers in 2014.
Of course, big numbers mean a big price tag. Scherzer rejected a six-year, $144 million offer from the Tigers in March and opted instead to test the free-agent waters, per Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com.
Expect Boras to ask for more years and dollars, and get both.
The Yankees are no strangers to gargantuan pitcher paydays. Prior to the 2009 season, they inked CC Sabathia to a seven-year, $161 million pact, at the time the biggest ever for a hurler.
Will they break another record, and the bank, to secure Scherzer?
One factor that could force New York's hand is the aggressiveness of the Boston Red Sox. The Yankees' hated AL East rivals have already made sizable free-agent splashes, signing Hanley Ramirez, per Heyman, and Pablo Sandoval, also per Heyman, two of the biggest bats on the block.
As Joel Sherman of the New York Post put it: "In the good old days—let’s call that the early part of this century—the Yankees and Red Sox had a Pavlovian baseball relationship. One would act decisively and the other would counter-punch. Usually this would be done with swelled egos and even larger wallets."
Then there are the defending AL East champion Baltimore Orioles and retooling Toronto Blue Jays to consider.
And yet, Sherman adds, this year's Yanks are preaching discipline and restraint. It's a new mantra for a club that has long reigned as baseball's biggest spender and still trails only the Los Angeles Dodgers in the check-writing department.
Really, New York's primary targets could be internal—guys like pitcher Brandon McCarthy, closer David Robertson and third baseman Chase Headley.
Add those potential contracts plus the impending return of the enigmatic Alex Rodriguez, and New York is poised to spend plenty next season without welcoming a single new face.
Still, does that feel like a Yankees offseason—or an offseason, period? This franchise doesn't simply re-up its own and call it a day.
They're the Bombers. They swing for the fences.
That's what a Scherzer signing would be: a cut from the heels, with all the attendant risk and reward. It could be a bang; it could be a bust.
Either way, it'd put New York back in the headlines. It'd shift the balance of power. And most essentially, it'd make winter feel like winter.
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com.
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