If the New York Mets are going to win the 2015 World Series, they'll need to claw their way out of the 2-0 hole they've dug themselves against the Kansas City Royals.
Yeah, it sounds bad. But some of you may remember it's nothing the Mets haven't done before, as they had to fight back from a 2-0 deficit the last time they won the World Series back in 1986.
And maybe, just maybe, they'll be able to do it again in 2015.
Certainly, the first order of business is to get over the shock of what just happened. Whereas the Mets were in it every step of the way in a dramatic 5-4 loss in 14 innings in Game 1, they fell totally flat in a 7-1 loss in Game 2 on Wednesday evening at Kauffman Stadium. The ever-enigmatic Johnny Cueto decided he wanted to be an ace again, allowing just two hits and three walks in a complete-game victory, as MLB highlighted via Twitter:
On the flip side, Jacob deGrom just didn't have it in Game 2. He started strong but was done in by a very Royals-like four-run rally in the fifth inning. As they are wont to do, they just kept putting the ball in play and finding holes.
"They live up to what people say," said Mets skipper Terry Collins afterward, per Erik Boland of Newsday. "They put the ball in play."
That they do, and the Mets have felt the effects. Their normally overpowering pitching staff has struck out only 10 batters in 21.1 innings—a reality that's pushing back against the notion that great pitching always beats great hitting.
But lest anyone take that as a sign that the Mets are absolutely, positively and categorically doomed, there actually is a positive spin to put on things.
We know this, of course, because that's what we're about to do.
If all you're focusing on is what happened in Game 2, then what you see is a Mets team that's badly overmatched against a Royals squad that's looking more and more like a team of destiny.
But let's remember that the narrative was drastically different in the aftermath of the series' marathon opener in Game 1. The Mets came one ill-fated Jeurys Familia fastball away from winning the game, and overall they did a fine job of proving that they could hang with the Royals even in a Royals-style ballgame.
And keep in mind that said Game 1 lasted 14 innings, thereby accounting for most of the World Series so far. The Mets have thus been a good match for the Royals for the bulk of the series. Glass half-full, people. Glass half-full.
On that note, here's another thing: It definitely doesn't hurt that the Mets are going back home. You can take it from deGrom, per MLB.com's Anthony DiComo:
If nothing else, going back home is a good thing based on the fact the Mets went 49-32 at Citi Field in the regular season. Speaking more specifically, the move back to Citi Field could be just what the Mets need to tilt this series' offensive battle in their favor.
One thing the Mets know is the Royals lineup will lose veteran DH Kendrys Morales to the bench. In addition to robbing the Royals of one of their best and most dangerous hitters, that's going to break up the string of left-handed batters in Kansas City's lineup—it's normally Eric Hosmer, Morales and Mike Moustakas—that presents a serious matchup problem.
Apart from that, the Mets can hope going back home will allow their offense to look more like itself.
As Grantland's Jonah Keri (and quite a few others) pointed out, the Mets have gotten this far in large part because their offense has turned into a power-hitting terror in the latter half of 2015. That's a collective talent that doesn't play at Kauffman Stadium, which ESPN.com's park factors say was the league's No. 25 home run park in 2015. Citi Field was significantly friendlier, checking in at No. 17.
As for what else needs to happen, it's imperative that the Mets put the first two games behind them and regain control of the starting-pitching matchup that was supposed to be theirs with no questions asked. This will be a challenge, but it is possible.
After handling Edinson Volquez well in Game 1, the Mets were shut down by Cueto in Game 2 largely because he had his smoke-and-mirrors attack firing on all cylinders. As per usual when he's on, he was disrupting the timing of Mets hitters by mixing up his delivery patterns and making things even tougher by locating and sequencing his pitches.
All told, it was a master class of, well, pitching. Fortunately for the Mets, that's something they shouldn't have to experience in any of the next three games.
Yordano Ventura will throw some electric stuff at them in Game 3, but he's not known for his craftiness. Chris Young needs to be crafty to get by, but it'll be a shock if he pitches any more than five innings in Game 4. And if the series gets to a Game 5, the Mets will be back around to Volquez and his comes-and-goes effectiveness.
For their part, the Mets can't ignore the reality that the Royals showed they could handle Matt Harvey and deGrom. But neither had his best stuff, meaning the stage may be set for the Royals to get a harsh reality check at the hands of Noah Syndergaard in Game 3. Harvey and deGrom are better pitchers, but Syndergaard has better pure stuff than either of them.
If Syndergaard's golden right arm can get the Mets back on track in Game 3, Steven Matz's golden left arm could take things from there in Game 4. After that, Harvey and deGrom would get their chances at redemption. Bing, bam, boom...Mets no longer doomed.
Or so they must hope, anyway. If we can speak even more honestly for a moment, we can grant that the Mets are definitely in an unenviable position.
Per Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal, only 10 of 51 teams to ever fall into a 2-0 hole in the World Series have come back to win. The last nine to try, alas, have all failed. Ever a great, big, jerky jerk, history is not on the Mets' side.
But for what it's worth, this Mets team is not staring at the most difficult 2-0 World Series comeback in franchise history. The 1986 team dropped the first two games of the Fall Classic to the Boston Red Sox at home. That's about as bad as it gets, and yet that all turned out all right.
So, though things definitely aren't good for the present-day Mets, they could be worse. They are not totally overmatched against the Royals, and now they have the home-field advantage with their power bats and power arms ready and able to make a difference.
A comeback isn't likely, but don't call it impossible.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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