After scoring a combined 11 runs over the first two games of the National League Division Series, the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets put on a show in Game 3, which saw 20 runs scored, 26 hits and the home team jump out to a 2-1 series lead.
But the series is far from over.
The Dodgers certainly have their backs against the wall and are staring elimination (and another wildly disappointing season) in the eye. While the Mets can lose and still live to play another day, another cross-country trip and meeting with Zack Greinke aren't things they want to deal with.
While much of the talk heading into the game will revolve around whether a bloodthirsty Citi Field crowd will finally get what they want—Chase Utley dusting himself off at home plate after being knocked down (or worse)—there are still nine innings of crucial baseball that need to be played.
Delivering on the following keys will go a long way toward both teams getting what they want—a Game 4 victory—when the action gets underway at 8:07 p.m. ET Tuesday night.
The Real Clayton Kershaw Must Show Up
If it feels like we've seen this episode of Dodgers baseball before, it's because we have, as Bill Plaschke writes for the Los Angeles Times:
In each of the last two seasons, Kershaw has pitched the Dodgers' final elimination game of the season, and both times his rescue attempt has failed.
Last season, working on three days' rest, he allowed three runs in six-plus innings in losing to the St. Louis Cardinals. In 2013, after pitching on three days' rest earlier in the postseason, he allowed seven runs in four innings in a loss to the Cardinals.
That's two must-win games that became season-ending losses, 10-plus innings, 10 earned runs, yet full steam ahead, because what other choice do the Dodgers have?
The truth is that the Dodgers don't have a choice. Other than Zack Greinke, there's no pitcher the Dodgers could reasonably send to the mound in a win-or-go-home scenario. And Greinke isn't available, having thrown seven innings in Game 2.
Despite Kershaw's less-than-Kershaw-esque postseason numbers (1-6, 4.99 ERA), there is reason for optimism in Los Angeles: He's never lost at Citi Field.
In four career starts spanning 26.2 innings of work, Kershaw has allowed a total of three runs and 15 hits, walking nine while striking out 31. Sure, we're talking about a small sample size, but those are the kind of numbers we've come to expect from the three-time NL Cy Young Award winner.
The Dodgers are going to need that Kershaw on the mound if they're going to bring the series back to Dodger Stadium.
The Mets Must Continue Ignoring the Splits
We talked about New York's lack of production in front of the home crowd leading up to Game 3, specifically pointing to four players—Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d'Arnaud, Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy—who needed to elevate their games at home if the Mets had any chance of winning.
That foursome was the reason the Mets emerged victorious in Game 3, hitting a combined .450 (9-for-20) with four extra-base hits (two home runs), 12 RBI and seven runs scored. But the numbers say they'll be hard-pressed to deliver an encore performance in Game 4.
Only Murphy has had any sort of success against Kershaw, and the group's combined .200 batting average (7-for-35), one extra-base hit and two RBI certainly don't foretell of another Ruthian performance.
If the Mets are going to end the series, that fearsome foursome is going to have to continue to ignore the splits—both at home and against the Dodgers ace.
Win the RISP Battle, Win the Game
Through the first three games of the series, the Dodgers have hit .276 (8-for-29) with runners in scoring position, the Mets .368 (7-for-19), far better than they performed in those situations during the regular season.
That's about as close as two teams can get across multiple statistical categories, and it's what makes winning this battle so essential to victory in Game 4, especially with a pair of starting pitchers that were adept at stranding runners throughout the regular season on the mound.
While it was Greinke that led all qualified starters with an 86.5 percent strand rate, Kershaw was no slouch, stranding 78.3 percent of all batters that got on base against him.
New York's Stephen Matz was even better in that regard with a ridiculous 91.4 percent mark, nearly 10 percent higher than his best showing in the minors. But that came over only 35.2 innings of work, and there certainly would have been regression to the mean had he spent the entire year in the majors.
It's not about how many runners a team puts in scoring position, it's about leaving fewer there than the opposition. Whichever team does that will be the one that walks off the field with their heads held high in Game 4.
Unless otherwise noted/linked, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs.
Hit me up on Twitter to talk playoff baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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