Back in 2007, the Washington Nationals had a center fielder who had no power, couldn’t bunt and tried to hit left-handed pitching from both sides of the plate, neither with any success. For most of the season, his on-base percent was below .300 and yet then-manager Manny Acta publicly supported him and guaranteed that he would remain the team’s everyday center fielder.
We fans grunted and groaned because we knew he was a bad player and yet there he was, trotting out to center field for almost every game. Acta, it seemed was in love with a guy who had no talent.
But following the season, Nook Logan just disappeared into the ether of poor performance, never again donning a major league uniform.
Sometimes, fans are right.
And now, current manager Jim Riggleman is faced with a similar choice. On the one hand, he can replace the departed Josh Willingham in left field with Michael Morse, a Jayson Werth clone who over parts of six major league seasons has batted .291/.353/.456, averaging 20 homers and 85 RBI over the equivalent of a full season.
Last season, Morse batted .289/.352/519 with 15 home runs in just 266 at-bats. And while he will never win a Gold Glove in the outfield, he has yet to make an error and has a very strong arm.
Or Riggleman can go with Roger Bernadina, one of the few remaining players who was part of the organization when it still played in Montreal. Bernadina—who like Andruw Jones is from the island nation of Curacao—has roughly the same major league experience as Morse but hasn’t fared nearly as well, hitting just .246/.306/.364 with 11 home runs and 49 RBI.
Last season, playing semi-regularly, he batted .246-11-47 with 16 stolen bases and a .307 on-base percent. Defensively, Bernadina has far better range than Morse but did make four errors last year.
Riggleman likes Bernadina because of his “untapped” potential. He is without question the most athletic player on the team and brings a ridiculously ripped physique to the clubhouse. Riggleman thinks that Bernadina—at 26—is ready to blossom and wants him in Washington when he does.
The Nationals manager doesn’t think that Morse can hit the elite pitchers in the league and so he sees him more as a platoon player, perhaps becoming the right-handed half of a platoon with Bernadina.
Let’s see if any of that makes sense. Here are the two players' splits over their career:
Bernadina vs. Right-handed Pitching
.238/.302/.357
Morse vs. Right-handed Pitching
.279/.341/.421
Bernadina vs. Left-handed Pitching
.258/.333/.409
Morse vs. Left-handed Pitching
.313/.375/.518
Bernadina is one of those lefties who actually hits left-handers better, so platooning forces him to bat from his weaker side. Morse, on the other hand, hits both left-handers and right-handers very well.
So why would a platoon even be considered? Remember, the Nationals are floating the idea that if they can’t come to an agreement with Adam LaRoche, they will sign left-hander Casey Kotchman and platoon him and Morse at first base.
I think the most important number to compare is how well a player hits with runners in scoring position and two out. Too many players—like Adam Dunn—are All-Stars with the bases empty but end up “missing in action” when the team needs them the most.
And how does Roger Bernadina and Michael Morse fair with the game on the line?
Bernadina: .161/.235/.258
Morse: .350/.435/.500
So let me see if I can understand Jim Riggleman. Michael Morse’s career batting average is 50 points higher than Bernadina, his on-base percent is 47 points better and his slugging average is 88 points higher.
With runners on base and two out, Morse is plus-189 in batting average, plus-200 in on-base percent and plus-257 in slugging.
And yet Riggleman and the Nationals want to give Roger Bernadina 450 at-bats in 2011 and Michael Morse about 125.
What is it I’m missing here?
Certainly, Bernadina could one day become a .290-20-80 hitter who plays quality defense. But right now—today—Michael Morse has 618 at-bats worth of proof that he will hit as good as they hope Bernadina might.
Here are Morse’s career statistics based on 565 at-bats, typical for a 162-game season:
Runs: 70
Hits: 171
Doubles: 31
Triples: 2
Home Runs: 20
RBI: 84
Average / On-Base Percent / Slugging Mark: 291/.353/.456
And I’m not guessing what Morse would hit; this is what he already has hit, just over six seasons.
And to be successful in the major leagues, players need to be consistent. One of the biggest knocks on Adam LaRoche is that he doesn’t start hitting until May or June (in his first five years, he has an April batting average of just .210).
Here are Bernadina’s month-by-month statistics in 2010:
April: .143/.333/.243
May: .250/.284/.434
June: .329/.409/.476
July: .259/.274/.397
August: .255/.318/.439
September: .161/.243/.215
Bernadina was successful in just one out of six months. Other than June, he was a hindrance to the team. In a player’s first full season, September is an indicator of epic proportions. Either the player begins to figure out major league pitching or major league pitching finds holes in that player’s swing.
The above numbers tell that story all too clearly.
Now take a look at Morse’s monthly breakdown from last year:
April: .167/.167/.167 (just six at-bats)
May: .333/.455/.333
June: .361/.410/.639
July: .385/.415/.718
August: .251/.272/.460
September: .270/.375/.485
Where Bernadina had just one good month, Morse had just one bad one (I’m not counting Morse’s April because of the limited at-bats). And still, Bernadina is ahead of Morse on the team’s depth chart (and I suppose that Rick Ankiel is as well).
So what gives? Even nationals.com's Bill Ladson isn’t giving Morse much of a chance. Here is an excerpt from his most recent mailbag:
2. Who will be the Opening Day left fielder?
The battle will be between Ankiel and Roger Bernadina. Bernadina ended the season in a hitting slump, while Ankiel had a season he would like to forget. Whomever wins the job will be in a platoon situation with Mike Morse, who had the best season of his career.
So let me get this straight. Two players have terrible years, one has the best of his career, and the guy who succeeded gets the short end of the baseball stick?
I see a lot of Jayson Werth in Michael Morse. Both are 6”5” and 230 pounds. Both are lanky and athletic. And Werth, like Morse, didn’t get much of a chance to play early in his career. Over his first five seasons, the newest National totaled just 976 at-bats and averaged .259-17-78 over a full 162-game season (lower than Morse’s .291-20-84) and with the same .352 on-base percentage.
Defensively, however, Werth was still learning his craft. In his first five seasons, he committed 15 errors in roughly 2,300 innings (compared to Morse’s zero errors in a little less than 700).
You would think that someone with the Nationals would say, “You know, this kid has a lot of Jayson Werth in him. Let’s give him 2011 and see what he can do.” But no, it appears that’s not going to happen.
I have dug so deep into the statistics of Roger Bernadina and Michael Morse that I’m about to hit oil. There is no indicator anywhere that suggests that Bernadina will have a breakout year or that Morse won’t.
As the roster is currently constructed, the difference between a left fielder that hits .240-10-50 and one that hits .280-23-80 is the difference between another bad year and at least the chance for a competitive (read: .500) season.
I’ll bet if I look really close, I’ll find that Bernadina is really Nook Logan on steroids.
Sigh…
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