Milwaukee Brewers: Evaluating Jarrod Washburn

Doug Melvin and the Brewers seriously pursued Washburn this past summer as a trade candidate. So the organization obviously believes he can augment the starting rotation (as if that would be overly difficult).

The lefty also is a Wisconsin native. The argument is that Washburn may wish to pitch close to home to end his career, as he will be 35-years old next season.

Quickly glancing at the numbers, Washburn compiled a 3.78 ERA in 176 innings with both the Seattle Mariners and the Detroit Tigers. His earned run average was even more impressive prior to the Detroit trade, as he sported a 2.64 ERA before blowing up following the trade.

Another sub-4.00 ERA pitcher in the rotation would be nice, right? Doug Melvin should pull the trigger and offer a multi-year deal to land the 12-year veteran, right?

Not exactly.

Washburn's 2.64 ERA in Seattle prior to the trade last season was an aberration. He had not posted an ERA below 4.32 since 2005 and owns a career earned run average of 4.10.

While that is certainly not below-average, Jarrod Washburn has been earning between $9-10 million per season with the Seattle Mariners to post average numbers. With Scott Boras as his agent and a knee issue in Detroit on which he can conveniently blame his struggles, it is highly unlikely that the left-hander is going to command less than that $9 million mark next season.

The issue with Washburn is not whether or not he can improve the starting rotation. He most certainly would augment the organization's league-worst ERA, but would it be a cost effective move for the Brewers to dole out a multi-year deal worth $9-10 million per year?

It would not.

Jarrod Washburn benefited from an outstanding outfield defense in Seattle last season that saw Franklin Gutierrez and Ichiro Suzuki post a +28.5 and +10.1 UZR, respectively.  Safeco Field is also a very pitcher-friendly park, allowing the sixth fewest home runs in the major leagues last season (with Progressive Field in Cleveland ranking as the least home run friendly). Washburn only surrendered four home runs at Safeco—a trend that would obviously not continue at a more neutral Miller Park.

For a fly ball pitcher with a career 0.83 GB/FB ratio, those two factors greatly added to his success in Seattle. Add an unsustainable .257 BABIP, which included a .261 and .375 BABIP after moving to Detroit, and it is not difficult to understand that Jarrod Washburn greatly benefited from the perfect atmosphere for him to be successful with the Seattle Mariners in 2009.  And that he got quite lucky.

Milwaukee should be targeting more upside pitching than that this offseason.

The starting rotation is not one arm away from being above-average. The organization needs to scour the pitching market for an arm that could come in and make a significant impact, such as Florida's Ricky Nolasco or impending free agent Justin Duchscherer.

A pitcher such as Jarrod Washburn, with a career 5.33 K/9 strikeout rate and a career 1.16 HR/9 rate in pitcher-friendly parks, is not an upside play.  It is exactly what Doug Melvin has been doing the past two or three years in the starting rotation—a veteran arm with a mid-to-low 4.00 ERA and a low strikeout rate. 

It smells of a Jeff Suppan or Braden Looper type move.

Milwaukee could do a lot worse than signing Washburn to a one-year, $8 million deal.  It would provide a stabilizing force behind Yovani Gallardo and give Doug Melvin the flexibility to sign or trade for an impact arm.

Unfortunately, the lefty's convenient sub-4.00 ERA season and Scott Boras as his agent will make a one-year deal for less money than he is currently making ($9.85 million) almost impossible. 

A three-year, $25-27 million deal is not a financially responsible deal for an aging pitcher such as Washburn, especially an aging pitcher who did not pitch up to his contract in a single season until an unsustainable BABIP in 2009 helped him do so.

Count me out on Jarrod Washburn this offseason, unless he and Scott Boras are willing to talk about a one-year deal.