Since Jim Leyland took over as the manager of the Detroit Tigers in 2006, the Tigers have followed a disturbing trend in every season except 2008 (when the heavily favored Tigers finished in last place and were never in contention). Each season the Tigers started hot, only to fade quickly after the All-Star break.
A team collapse once or twice happens, but four out of five years definitely warrants concern among the fan base.
All is not hopeless though, and there is reason for excitement for the 2011 version of the Detroit Tigers. Dave Dombrowski has upgraded the roster this offseason adding All-Star Catcher/DH Victor Martinez, reliever Joaquin Benoit who is coming off one of the greatest seasons by a reliever in history and former All-Star starter Brad Penny, who by all accounts is completely healed from a back injury that cost him nearly all of his 2010 season.
Two infielders were resigned. Johnny Peralta, who was obtained in a mid-season trade with the Indians, offers a serviceable option at shortstop while Brandon Inge was resigned in an attempt to continue to add to his Detroit Tigers all-time strikeout record.
The under appreciated Magglio Ordonez was also resigned after giving a hometown discount for the Tigers, or so says Scott Boras. The 2010 Tigers team never came close to recovering from Magglio's broken ankle he suffered shortly after the All-Star break (or Brennan Boesch's free fall) and the team faded into obscurity soon after without much protection for Miguel Cabrera.
I think we can break down the roster into a lot of knowns and a few unknowns. The knowns are fairly predictable. We've seen enough of these guys that we know what we're getting, good or bad. The unknowns, however, can swing either way. They either haven't shown consistency yet, are looking to bounce back from injury or are getting their first full time opportunity.
The Tigers have fewer unknowns going into this season than years past and the unknowns that they do have, have higher upside than we've seen.
In order to challenge the remarkably consistent Twins and the much improved White Sox, the Tigers are going to need the knowns to come through to their normal ability and a few of the unknowns will have to have career seasons. If this doesn't happen, the Tigers will be battling the Indians and Royals to defend their JV Title...Third Place.
THE KNOWNS
At 1B, Miguel Cabrera will be a bonafide MVP candidate and starter Justin Verlander will be a top 10 ace. They've both proven this year in and year out and they're the two superstars on this team.
I'm assuming Max Scherzer has turned the corner as a quality second starter. Argue if you will, but Scherzer was 1-4 with a 7.29 ERA after being demoted to Toledo in mid-May. After being called back up, he went 11-7. He never pitched less than five innings and only allowing more than four earned runs once. He finished the season with a 3.50 ERA and nearly one strikeout per inning pitched. I'm guessing he's figured it out and is living up to his high draft position.
RF Magglio Ordonez and DH Victor Martinez will produce at their typical 80-100 RBI pace given their track record. They both are getting older, but haven't shown many signs of slowing down. Magglio, in particular, enjoyed an excellent first half to 2010 before the injury. Martinez will also be counted on to catch meaning on those occasions Magglio or Cabrera will move to DH for those games.
CF Austin Jackson had an incredibly impressive rookie campaign after everyone (including me) cried for weeks after the Curtis Granderson trade. Jackson proved to be just as dynamic as Granderson and much closer to a true leadoff hitter. His drawback is he strikes out. A lot. 170 times to be exact. The strikeout totals lead to the biggest argument as to why Jackson's season was a fluke. His Batting Average for Balls In Play (BABIP) was an astronomical .396 last season (keep in mind, Ichiro has a career .356 BABIP as of 2009).
Basically, when Jackson didn't strike out, he nearly hit .400. If his BABIP decreases, so will his productivity. However, as he gets more used to major league hitting he should cut down on his K's increasing his productivity. To me the argument of his BABIP showing him to be a fluke doesn't hold much weight.
I'm going out on a slight limb and saying closer Jose Valverde numbers will average out to what they were last year, 3-ish ERA with 40+ saves and a middle tier closer. He's not as good as he was in the first half nor as bad as he was in the second half.
3B Brandon Inge and SS Johnny Peralta will produce their typical 60-70 RBIs and 15-20 HRs. Peralta will hit for a better average than Inge and you can accept his numbers for the typical light hitting shortstop position. Inge will produce nowhere near the power numbers you want from the third base position, but he'll dive for a ground ball once a game and the fans will love him for it.
He'll run for governor when he retires and win in a landslide. Seriously, a huge year from him would be crucial but I've grown to accept that it isn't going to happen.
Alex Avila at C and the Will Ryhmes/Scott Sizemore/Ramon Santiago/Danny Werth four-headed beast at 2B will be counted on for defense only and any offense is a plus. When Martinez catches, the offense will obviously improve but the defense will take a hit.
With the shocking news that Carlos Guillen will once again be injured (gasp!) going into the season, I'm going to leave him out of the discussion all together. With all these injuries, I'm beginning to wonder if the Lions QB moonlights as Carlos Guillen.
THE UNKNOWNS
The rest of the roster in my opinion is the real key to a successful season. If several of these guys have career years, the Tigers will roll into the playoffs. If most of them have down years, expect another .500 season.
Ryan Raburn will be given every opportunity to lose the LF spot. He's earned the right after actually outproducing Miguel Cabrera in the 2nd half of the season (.315/13/48). Raburn is pretty much the anti-Inge to me. A guy that people have been unjustly trying to run out of town since he got here.
However, I see a roller-coaster fielder who can get really hot at the plate when given a full time opportunity. He's going to have to get off to a good start because if he fails to produce, Jim Leyland will have a quick hook and Brennan Boesch or Casper Wells will get the job.
The back end of the bullpen could be trouble. With the pending loss of Armando Galarraga, Phil Coke's move to the rotation seems like it wasn't just talk. I already stuck my neck out for Valverde at closer.
Benoit will be the set-up guy. He had an unbelievable 2010 for the Rays (1.34 ERA/.068 WHIP in 60 innings), but how in the world can he be expected to keep it up. 75 percent of the season he had last year would be terrific.
The seventh inning guy will be either Joel Zumaya if healthy or Ryan Perry. Both have dynamic arms but both have had their issues. Perry with confidence and control and Zumaya with moving boxes, Guitar Hero and too much confidence. One of those guys has to have a career year for the bullpen to be anything.
The situational lefty is even more of a mess. Brad Thomas is a long reliever if he makes the team. Daniel Schlereth is like Ryan Perry II, great stuff but hasn't put it together. Fu Te Ni bombed out early last year after a promising 2009 but is still a Spring Training invitee. John Bale has logged 173 big league innings with mediocre results, but has decent strikeout numbers and might be another Leyland reclamation project.
Someone is going to have to grab that role and perform.
More than any other position, the bottom three starters need to produce. Currently Rick Porcello is the third starter. Porcello had an excellent rookie season but was way too hittable in 2010 with a .288 opponents batting average. He looked a little better his last handful of starts and needs to carry that over to 2010. A 13-15 win season would be as much as anyone could expect.
Phil Coke is penciled in as the fourth guy in the rotation. I fully expect this project to explode. He was too valuable in the bullpen and seemed to lose his effectiveness whenever Leyland relied on him for more than an inning or so. My guess is Andrew Oliver eventually takes that lefty rotation spot from Coke.
Brad Penny is the wild card in the rotation. If the Tigers get nothing out of him, they'll likely have to call up Jacob Turner earlier than they want to or see what Jeremy Bonderman is doing. 10-12 wins is the least that should be expected of a pitcher with Penny's experience, but it's far from a given due to his increasing age and decreasing durability.
SUMMARY
Although far from a perfect team, the Tigers have a lot to look forward to in 2011. The team has a mix of superstars, veterans and some rising young players.
They'll need to count on their known commodities whom have proved to be reasonably consistent and as with every team, the players with question marks attached to them need to produce.
For the first time in years, this group of players have a higher upside and are guys who have proved they can play at this level. It is just a matter of them either getting back there or proving they can do it consistently.
If this falls into place, the Tigers should be playing baseball in October.
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