Voting for the 2015 MLB All-Star Game concluded Thursday night, but the league doesn't reveal its final tally until Sunday. And given the hullabaloo surrounding the potential results of this year's fan vote with the American League ballot, there should be more interest than usual in a typically academic unveiling.
Kansas City Royals aside, there were plenty of tight races and deserving starters sitting on the outside when the last updates were released before voting closed. With half the season in the books, we've reached the point in the season where sample size is no longer an issue in evaluating individual head-to-head resumes.
Taking a look at the last June 29 updates via MLB Communications, let's highlight some of the most intriguing storylines to keep an eye on for the vote reveal.
Tightest Race: AL Designated Hitter
Mathematically, the National League third base race between Matt Carpenter and Todd Frazier is actually closer. But Frazier made up plenty of ground in the last update as Carpenter continued his June swoon; the Cardinals leadoff hitter finished the month with a horrific .190 average. Thus, the more interesting race may actually be at designated hitter between Seattle's Nelson Cruz and Kansas City's Kendrys Morales.
Along with Josh Donaldson, Cruz helped displace part of the Royals' monopoly on the starting lineup (though Kansas City still has five starters at the moment). On his third team in as many years, the 35-year-old has been an invaluable source of right-handed power for a largely disappointing Mariners squad. Cruz's 20 home runs rank fourth in the AL, while his .248 isolated power ranks seventh in the league.
Morales' value has largely stemmed from the traditionalists' favorite stat, RBI. The DH successor to longtime fan favorite Billy Butler, Morales has driven in 51 runs, seventh-most in the AL, and has rebounded well from a lackluster and injury-riddled 2014 campaign.
However, Cruz has posted twice as much WAR (1.8 to 0.9) because of ballpark adjustments. His 158 weighted runs created (wRC+) ranks fourth in the AL and sits 23 percent better than Morales' 125 wRC+ mark. Cruz is the rightful new leader, and the guess is that his lead widened by the end of the voting.
Prediction: Cruz starts
Underrated Race: NL Outfield
MVP favorite Bryce Harper is the run-away leading vote-getter in the National League outfield, with the largest lead of any player in the senior circuit. However, major injuries have thinned out the next three places behind Harper, with Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Holliday and Nori Aoki all sidelined for the summer classic.
Consequently, there's a host of candidates who could swoop in and snag one of those final spots. The prior fifth- and sixth-place outfielders were Andrew McCutchen and Joc Pederson, respectively. The former MVP McCutchen will likely get in on reputation and likability, but the Pirate has seen a sizable dip in power and batting rate stats this season. Though his 142 wRC+ is certainly nothing to sneeze at, the fans probably got it right by initially excluding him from a starting spot.
Pederson is a more interesting case. The potential Rookie of the Year has garnered poor batting average and strikeout totals, but with 20 home runs and a whopping .281 ISO (fifth in the NL), the Dodgers outfielder has quickly become a cult hero. Coupled with excellent defense, only Harper and Stanton have accumulated more WAR among NL outfielders. Even without injuries, Pederson was always a deserving starter.
Among the players outside the current starters, Jason Heyward and Starling Marte have supplied the best all-around value of power, average, baserunning and defense. Justin Upton's bounce-back power season in San Diego has also garnered some deserved attention, which should make McCutchen and Pederson sweat out the final results.
Prediction: McCutchen and Pederson join Harper as starters
Biggest Potential Snub: Jason Kipnis, Cleveland, 2B
Fans of schadenfreude and general chaos will want to see replacement-level Royals second baseman Omar Infante nab the starting spot over Jose Altuve, but in reality, neither comes close to deserving the starting nod. The Indians' leadoff hitter has put together one of the league's best bounce-back campaigns this season after a lackluster 2014, and has been arguably the league's best pure hitter for two months:
Though his .392 BABIP is surely unsustainable moving forward, Kipnis' .344 average doesn't figure to dip too severely because of his revamped plate approach. The fourth-year pro has cut his strikeout rate from 18.0 percent in 2014 to 13.6 percent this season, while his walk rate has risen to career high 10 percent.
But with barely half the votes of Infante and Altuve, there's no shot for Kipnis to claim the starting spot he's earned. He will get the deserving All-Star nod as a reserve, and if Altuve can pass Infante, the AL will at least have a respectable starter. Altuve's average has come down, but he's still posting a high on-base and fielding well as the face of baseball's most inspiring Cinderella story thus far.
Nevertheless, with Miguel Cabrera having regained the AL first base lead over Eric Hosmer, the choice for biggest snub is fairly simple. At the very least, Kipnis can take solace that this snub may actually do more to put him on the map for a possible redemption if he can post a similar season in 2016.
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