The ignored sibling of sports selection processes, the MLB amateur draft doesn't receive all-out fanfare due to its unpredictability.
More than any other major sport, superstars are snagged in late rounds while top picks fizzle spectacularly. Signability issues also cloud the event, and patience is required with prospects spending years honing their craft in the minor leagues.
It will take a while before anyone can praise or second-guess picks, making baseball the toughest draft to project. Yet football and basketball shouldn't have all the fun, so let's analyze some of the top first-round candidates for Monday's draft.
Brendan Rodgers, SS, Lake Mary (Fla.) High School
Although Vanderbilt's Dansby Swanson is a popular choice, there's no clear-cut No. 1 pick this year. If the Arizona Diamondbacks pass on shortstop Brendan Rodgers, the high school standout won't fall much further.
ESPN Insider Keith Law has him going No. 2 but added that the Houston Astros are not overly high on him. David Rawnsley of Sports Illustrated pegged him a spot lower to the Colorado Rockies, and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo ranked Rodgers the top available prospect.
Having worked out with the teenager, Tampa Bay Rays infielder Nick Franklin sung Rodgers' praises to Mayo.
"Ultimately, he's got a great shot, not only just getting drafted, he's got a great shot at being at the big league level and staying there for a while," Franklin said. "I've seen a lot of guys, I've worked with a lot of high school guys, but he's probably one of the best high school guys I've ever seen."
The 6'1", 190-pound shortstop hit .366 with eight homers during his senior season, leading scouts to envision a potential 15-20 homer middle infielder. Three years removed from drafting Carlos Correa, the Astros double-down with another talented high schooler.
Prediction: Houston Astros (No. 2)
Dillon Tate, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
The best of a deep batch of right-handed pitchers, UC Santa Barbara's Dillon Tate will compete with southpaw Tyler Jay for the honor of first hurler off the board.
ESPN Insider Eric Longenhagen scouted the 21-year-old's last outing, impressed with his pitching repertoire despite some lapses in composure. "This is a potential No. 2 MLB starter if everything comes together," he wrote. "A physical and athletic arm headlined by two plus-plus pitches and average or better control."
Previously a reliever, the 6'2", 200-pounder notched a 2.26 ERA, 111 strikeouts and 28 walks through 103.1 innings as a starter. Although projected to go No. 4 by Law and No. 2 in Rawnsley's mock, Tate isn't viewed as an early lock. FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel noted that the Chicago Cubs, who own the No. 9 selection, kept close tabs on his last start:
MLB.com's Jim Callis also wouldn't be surprised if Tate tumbled:
With his stock dropping, the Chicago White Sox are a prime candidate to pounce at No. 8. They have a history of taking MLB-ready college arms, most notably Chris Sale and 2014 first-rounder Carlos Rodon. If the Texas Rangers pass at pick No. 4, Chicago will welcome him over Vanderbilt's Carson Fulmer.
Prediction: Chicago White Sox (No. 8)
Ian Happ, 2B/OF, Cincinnati
Any team searching for an established position player will chase Cincinnati's Ian Happ, one of college baseball's most productive hitters this year. His stellar season earned him a nomination for the Golden Spikes Award, an honor given to the nation's top college player:
That graphic leaves out his .490 on-base percentage, showing plus plate discipline from the versatile 20-year-old. Having played second base and outfield, Happ will also provide defensive flexibility for whoever snags him around the 10-20 range.
He certainly has a fan in Patt McCloskey, his coach at Mt. Lebanon High School. “I could not be happier for Ian even if he were a member of my own family,” McCloskey told the Pittsburgh-Post Gazette's Megan Ryan. “He is everything that is right about baseball.”
Happ draws varying evaluations from across the industry. While Law pegged him as a top-10 selection, Mayo listed him as the No. 20 overall player. Teams with an affinity for upside will pass, but someone searching for a short-term starter will bite.
His gaudy slash line would attract the Oakland Athletics with the No. 20 choice, but the retooling Milwaukee Brewers need reinforcements fast. In the middle of Round 1, Happ represents a solid value at No. 15.
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers (No. 15)
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