Few events in sports feature as much mystery as the MLB draft, and that won't change in 2016.
The 2016 class has plenty of quality players from both college and high school, but none of them have separated themselves above the rest of the prospects. This could lead to plenty of surprises throughout the 40 rounds—and especially in the first round on Thursday.
Even when the picks are made, it will be years before we know which teams made the right decision and which ended up with busts.
While this increases the pressure for front offices, the drama should also create plenty of excitement for fans hoping their teams can build toward the future over the next week.
Full draft can be streamed online through MLB.com.
Full order courtesy of MLB.com.
Top Picks
Philadelphia Phillies: A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida Gators
The fact that there is no consensus best player in the draft makes things difficult for the Philadelphia Phillies, but it also keeps their options open. According to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, the team is considering talent as well as signability with the top pick.
Amateur scouting director Johnny Almaraz explained how he plans to approach the draft, per Zolecki:
If you look back to 2005 and look at the first overall pick and the performers in their class, a lot of the No. 1 picks are eight, nine, 10 as far as performance is based. A lot of guys that were taken between the fifth and 20th pick have outperformed the No. 1. We're doing our job to take the best player with the best ability. But knowing that, it's helped me widen the range of prospects as far as we're concerned at No. 1.
Even with a full list of options, the Phillies appear likely to take Florida lefty A.J. Puk with the first pick.
Puk has all the physical tools you look for in a prospect. The 6'7", 230-pound lefty has a strong fastball and good enough secondary stuff to be excited about his possibilities. However, he has failed to turn that into the type of production you want from the first overall pick.
The Florida starter had just a 2-3 record in 15 starts during the regular season and struggled with control all year long, with 31 walks in 70 innings. After allowing five runs (four earned) in 4.1 innings in the NCAA tournament regionals, his ERA has jumped to 3.51.
Although the potential is there for success, he's still a risk at No. 1.
Cincinnati Reds: Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee Volunteers
It's never easy making the jump from college to professional baseball, but Nick Senzel could have an easier transition than most. The third baseman is one of the most advanced hitters in the draft and should quickly rise through any system.
Senzel has been productive throughout his career, but took a major leap this season by batting .352 with 25 doubles, eight home runs and 59 RBI. The boost in power numbers helped him tally an impressive 1.051 OPS.
Meanwhile, he showed great patience at the plate with 40 walks and only 21 strikeouts all season. This type of production is a reason Baseball America listed Senzel among the best in the class in strike-zone discipline and overall hitting.
Although picking the third baseman at No. 2 remains a bit of a reach, Wes Rucker of 247Sports reported the Cincinnati Reds are still considering the move:
With Senzel's relatively high floor and his ability to help the team early in his career, this pick makes a lot of sense.
Atlanta Braves: Jason Groome, LHP, Barnegat HS (N.J.)
There is quite a risk for whichever team takes Jason Groome, but the upside might be worth the high pick.
ESPN's Jim Bowden listed the left-handed pitcher as the best overall player in the 2016 class. MLB.com feels the same way, putting him on top of its prospect rankings.
Chris Crawford of Baseball Prospectus explained in an interview with Dayn Perry of CBS that he also believes Groome should go No. 1 and would pick him if he were in charge of the Phillies:
Despite some late season struggles and a controversial suspension, he's the best player on my board as a southpaw who has shown two plus-plus pitches in his fastball and curve, plus an above-average change. There's more volatility here than I'd like—which is why the Phillies won't take him—but I have always believed in taking the best player on the board, and that's Groome.
There is risk in taking any high school player in the draft, but Groome has the type of upside you want, especially for a team like the Atlanta Braves that needs plenty of talent. This makes it hard to expect him to fall too much further in the draft.
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