There was a time, about a year ago, when Jordan Zimmermann was to be the prince of this winter’s dynamite class of free-agent starting pitchers.
The right-hander was coming off a career year last offseason, putting up the best marks of his career in terms of ERA, ERA+, strikeouts, WHIP, FIP and strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished fifth in National League Cy Young Award voting for the Washington Nationals and earned a second consecutive All-Star selection.
With one more season to produce before entering free agency, it seemed Zimmermann just had to stay healthy in 2015 to become the head of the class. Another season like the one he had in 2014, and he would become the first Tommy John survivor to put a nine-figure salary next to his name.
Well, Zimmermann stayed healthy enough. He just did not produce anywhere near the ace-like numbers expected of him this past season, and he became a fairly mediocre pitcher with a 3.66 ERA, a pedestrian 110 ERA+ and his strikeout rate dropped significantly from 22.8 percent in 2014, a career high, to 19.7 percent, good for 48th among qualified major league starters in 2015.
“Feel like I took the ball every time they asked, did what I could,” Zimmermann told reporters in late September, glossing over his career with the Nationals. “Some days I didn’t have it, some days I was good.”
Zimmermann needed to be better than good to land top-tier money this offseason, the kind that allows an ace to fill out some team's blank check. With a deep pool of starting pitchers on the market this offseason, his numbers in a contract year do not stand out—his 3.66 ERA was easily a career worst for any of his full seasons—and leave him bunched in with the likes of Jeff Samardzija, Mike Leake and maybe Yovani Gallardo, if not just a tick above that trio.
Whoever might reside in Zimmermann’s echelon, one thing is certain: He pitched himself out of the group containing David Price, Zack Greinke and maybe even Johnny Cueto, depending on how the market views Cueto’s late-season/postseason struggles and injury concerns. Price and Greinke, who is expected to opt out of his current contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers within the next week, will command the majority of the money on the market.
Price, the ace of the Detroit Tigers and Toronto Blue Jays this past season, has a 2.90 ERA and 133 ERA+ over his last four seasons while averaging more than 200 strikeouts a year in that time. He turned 30 in late August, but he has been durable throughout his career, is left-handed and remains one of the game’s true aces. That resume, despite his 5.46 ERA over his last nine postseason outings, could command a deal in the $180-200 million range.
Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors thinks Price’s goal could be to exceed the $215 million extension Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers, and that is certainly a possibility considering Max Scherzer got $210 million from Washington as a 30-year-old last winter.
Greinke, who will be leaving three years and $71 million on the table when he opts out, could look to raise his average annual value with a four- or five-year deal, or he could try to get as much as six years and more than the $155 million, similar to what the Chicago Cubs gave Jon Lester last offseason.
Greinke is 32, but he has relatively no injury issues, could win a Cy Young Award for his work this past season—19 wins, 1.66 ERA, 225 ERA+, 0.844 WHIP—and is not the kind of ace that relies on a power fastball, so a sixth year might not scare away every suitor.
Postseasons matter, though. That could work against Price and Cueto, who struggled down the stretch of the regular season and was wildly inconsistent in the playoffs for the Kansas City Royals until his complete-game gem in Game 2 of the World Series.
Cueto also missed time this summer with elbow stiffness and discomfort, but seems to have ended the World Series in ace form. However, everything considered, his price could be affected unless Price signs early and for a ton of money, which would drive up numbers for other guys.
With Price and Cueto struggling during this postseason, Zimmermann’s stock could see a boost without throwning a pitch in October. Even though his summer was not as great as expected, he could pick up the money lost, if any, by those two.
Seems like two big free-agent winners from postseason are: A) Zack Greinke, and B) Jordan Zimmermann, who hasn't thrown a pitch.
— Phil Rogers (@philgrogers) October 29, 2015
Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal believes the San Francisco Giants will stick their toes in Zimmermann’s pool, but he also thinks the Wisconsin native would like to stay in the Midwest. That puts the Cubs and possibly the Tigers into play.
The Dodgers, New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox are going to have interest, obviously, as might teams like the Arizona Diamondbacks, Seattle Mariners and Los Angeles Angels. Zimmermann will be a thick market.
He is no longer among the best the market has to offer, and his ace title has been stripped from his negotiating leverage. Still, whatever deal Zimmermann signs will go well beyond $100 million, and while hitting the $150 million mark is iffy, if he regains something close to the form he showed in 2014, Zimmermann will end up being one of the steals of this offseason.
Advanced stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired firsthand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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