There's always that dark-horse team that gets in the way of your MLB free agency predictions.
Don't worry; it happens to everybody.
But staying informed on the hottest free-agent rumors makes it easier to decipher which teams will be players for which free agents. Of course, you'll always have those situations like when the Seattle Mariners shocked the entire universe and outbid the New York Yankees for Robinson Cano.
But that doesn't happen often.
The next month or so is crucial for the outlook of the MLB offseason. Winter meetings will be upon us in a few weeks, and that's usually when the first of the big deals go down.
Read on to find out which big names could find new homes in the near future, as well as predictions for where those homes will be.
David Robertson
David Robertson stepped up to the challenge of replacing Mariano Rivera last season, saving 39 of 44 games for the New York Yankees. That doesn't mean he's a lock to return, though, as he rejected the team's qualifying offer and is seeking a lucrative contract.
Ken Davidoff of the New York Post reports that there's at least one team out there ready to talk turkey with the 29-year-old: "The Astros have communicated with Robertson’s agent Scott Leventhal to express their interest in the Yankees’ closer, an industry source said."
Houston's bullpen prevented the team from reaching .500 last season, making Robertson a logical fit for the organization. Davidoff writes, "Their relievers tallied a woeful 4.80 ERA, and they converted just 54.39 percent (31-for-57) of their save opportunities, worst in the AL."
If there's one team on the market desperate for late-inning help, it's Houston. It has a problem.
Of course, it's truly impossible to rule out the Yankees. Uncertainties surrounded the closer role prior to last year, and Robertson stepped up. Does the team want to go with a first-time closer yet again in 2015? It'd likely be Dellin Betances tasked with shutting the door. He might not be the most reliable option.
The question for the Yankees comes down to just how highly they value Robertson—not as a member of the organization, but as a piece toward building a larger puzzle. ESPN's David Schoenfield broke down how Robertson stacked up to other relievers in 2014:
Robertson is coming off a 3.08 ERA -- that's nothing special these days for a reliever. Sixty-nine relievers who threw at least 50 innings had a lower ERA in 2014. He saved 39 games in 44 opportunities. That's a save percentage of 88.6. Sounds good, but again, it's nothing special; 13 closers with at least 20 opportunities had a higher percentage in 2014. Robertson also allowed seven home runs in 2014, six to right-handed batters.
Does that sound like a pitcher deserving of a contract in the ballpark of $50 million?
The Astros' desperation makes them more likely to pay the type of money Robertson seeks. The Yanks will make a push, but there are other arms in the organization capable of taking over, ultimately ending their pursuit.
Prediction: Astros
Pablo Sandoval
Pablo Sandoval is widely considered to be the offensive crown jewel of the offseason, making his list of suitors quite a lengthy one. It seems as if he's already done some deliberating, however, as ESPN reports that he is nearing a decision:
Free-agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval is expected to make a decision about his baseball future this week, according to his brother and co-agent.
Michael Sandoval did not specify which teams are in the running, but he told ESPNBoston.com's Gordon Edes on Saturday that Pablo Sandoval has received contract offers from all of the teams under consideration and will take the weekend to weigh his options.
Multiple teams have been linked heavily to the 28-year-old. The Boston Red Sox are known to have major interest, as are the San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays and San Diego Padres, notes ESPN.
Sandoval is a hero in the Bay Area, so it would be a shock to see him move on. He was a catalyst for the Giants in the World Series, recording 12 hits and almost single-handedly keeping his team from allowing the Kansas City Royals to build significant momentum. He has won three rings in his seven-year career.
Of course, it would be hard for the third baseman to turn down a lucrative offer from another team. His agent would be wise to convince him to take the money, as questions surrounding his weight will surely inhibit him from making money the next time he hits the open market.
A player on the wrong side of 30 with his build (5'11", 245 pounds) certainly won't make top dollar. Now he can.
CBS Sports' Jon Heyman tweeted that the Sox had inked Sandoval, but his agent, Gustavo Vasquez, denied reports, via Alex Speier of 93.7 WEEI: "We have offers, [but] no deal."
Something's cooking, however, and it appears imminent that Sandoval will join Boston.
Prediction: Red Sox
Jon Lester more than likely won't return to the Oakland Athletics, meaning he's gearing up to change addresses this winter for the second time since July. Where he'll go is anybody's guess, and Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that "at least six [teams] are interested."
That doesn't count the Yankees, though, and Rosenthal makes a point to say that the Yankees' stance on Lester could change in an instant given their propensity to quickly decide whether or not they want to outbid other teams for a top star.
Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe described the team's strategy when courting players: "[Brian] Cashman is one of the best at not showing his hand. He will downplay every possible move the Yankees should or could make, and when it comes down to doing it, the Yankees pounce swiftly."
Cashman is well aware of the holes his team has, and it's probably overwhelming to figure out which hole to fill first. The Yankees have a ton of pitching, but Cashman is admittedly concerned with the health of his staff, via Cafardo: "I think we have good pitching, but there’s obviously some volatility in it because of the health status and health histories of some of them."
Will that lead the Bombers to Lester?
Cashman did admit that "ownership has always been very beneficial with the resources to put the team on the field," so he certainly can't rule out a big-ticket acquisition.
The Yankees' insistence on not dishing out big contracts to aging players has preoccupied much of their thinking. CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez haven't panned out particularly well in recent memory.
But look what happened when the team had them all going strong early in their deals in 2009. The Yankees won the World Series.
Winning the Fall Classic is worth suffering through a few tough years when the contracts are close to expiring. If Cashman wants to truly improve his team, then he'll go hard after Lester in hopes of recapturing the same magic he had prior to the team's last championship.
Given the resources at his disposal, Cashman can make it happen.
Prediction: Yankees
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