Dominoes are starting to fall this Major League Baseball offseason at the winter meetings, opening the door for deals to come fast.
Ben Zobrist shook things up on Tuesday by signing with the Chicago Cubs, per Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. The ripple effect from that deal was Starlin Castro moving from the Cubs to the New York Yankees, and the New York Mets, who were in the Zobrist market, trading for Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Neil Walker, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
Marquee free agents are still all the rage this winter, as there are plenty to go around, though teams currently seem to be playing things slowly while waiting to see if they can get players to accept deals on their terms instead of driving up prices.
When the one big domino—Jason Heyward, Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton—signs, the rest will follow quickly.
The key is trying to figure out which side is in control at this point, so here are the latest rumors and predictions for key players available.
Baltimore's Ultimatum
The market for first baseman Chris Davis has been slow to develop, leaving hope for the Baltimore Orioles to bring back the prolific power hitter.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported the Orioles met with Davis' agent, Scott Boras, twice on Tuesday, specifically to discuss re-signing the 29-year-old.
However, Rosenthal added in that report the Orioles told Boras "they soon might pivot" away from Davis if a deal isn't reached.
It's a hard stance the Orioles have to take because Boras loves to play the market as long as he can to get top dollar for his clients, so they could be out of options if Davis' negotiations get extended into January.
The Orioles have made a strong, legitimate offer to Boras for Davis, with ESPN's Buster Olney reporting it is for $150 million over seven years.
Davis is smart to wait before accepting any deal because he offers something that every team covets: power. The 2013 All-Star has led the league in homers twice in the last three years and hit 26 in a dreadful 2014 season.
That 2014 season is a big problem for Davis' negotiating leverage. He hit .196/.300/.404 in 127 games and was suspended 25 games for amphetamines.
How is a team supposed to trust that Davis will show his 2013 or 2015 form, rather than what he did in 2014, throughout the course of a long-term extension?
It's one of the questions every franchise has to ask itself before deciding whether to sign a player, but Davis carries more risk because he bottomed out in spectacular fashion so recently.
As a result, it's hard to see any team surpassing Baltimore's offer for Davis. The Orioles know they need his production in the middle of their order to keep up with a much-improved Boston Red Sox team and still-dangerous Toronto Blue Jays in the American League East.
Prediction: Davis re-signs with Baltimore for seven years, $150 million.
St. Louis Alternatives
The St. Louis Cardinals are facing big questions this offseason, largely because their rivals in Chicago have all the momentum after a 97-win season and the addition of Zobrist and the Pittsburgh Pirates are still as dangerous as anyone in the National League.
The Cardinals also have to deal with losing arguably the best position player available (Heyward) with no obvious alternative, but Rosenthal has added one name to the mix:
Speaking of Heyward and the Cubs, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported the team still has interest in the star right fielder even after signing Zobrist. Heyman also added the Cubs are looking at Denard Span "and others" to plug their hole in center field.
In the event Heyward becomes too expensive for the Cardinals, Gordon wouldn't be a bad alternative. He's got an obvious connection to the state of Missouri after being drafted by the Kansas City Royals and spending nine years with the franchise.
Gordon will also cost significantly less than Heyward by virtue of being more than five years older. He's not the same dynamic talent, but their career hitting lines are very similar:
The Cardinals don't necessarily need to add another outfielder this offseason with Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk locked into starting roles.
But Holliday and Grichuk combined to miss 148 games last year, and the Cardinals could explore trade options to bolster their starting rotation with one of those outfielders in the event they add Gordon to the mix.
Heyward still feels like the Cardinals' No. 1 option, and the team has plenty of television money that will start coming in for the 2018 season, but the long-term cost of Gordon is more in tune with what they can do.
Prediction: Gordon signs with St. Louis for four years, $75 million.
New Dexter Fowler Suitor
One underrated free agent who will draw a lot of attention when the major players are off the board is Dexter Fowler, who is coming off a stellar year with the Cubs in which he hit .250/.346/.411 with a career-high 17 home runs.
A team in the market for outfield help that has at least mentioned Fowler's name is the San Francisco Giants, according to ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.
Adding Fowler would require some maneuvering for the Giants, who have two center fielders in Angel Pagan and Gregor Blanco, but need someone to play left field. Fowler has played center field throughout his career, but has not done it well.
Putting a player with Fowler's limited defensive skill set in AT&T Park's spacious center field has disaster written all over it.
The Giants certainly know this and should present Fowler with an opportunity to play left field for them, where his defense can be hidden and his .363 career on-base percentage will play nicely atop a lineup that features Joe Panik, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt right behind him.
Ahmed Fareed of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area reported the Giants will "go big for another pitcher or a left fielder, but not both." They already spent $90 million over five years to put Jeff Samardzija in their starting rotation, per MLB.com.
Fowler does have concerns beyond his glove. Last year was the first time since 2012 and just the second time in his career he's broken the 140-game barrier, so injuries have to be considered as he prepares to turn 30 in March.
Yet for a franchise built to win now and in desperate need of another outfielder, the Giants need to find a solution this offseason. Fowler will likely be a cheaper alternative to even Gordon because his defense isn't at the same level.
Prediction: Fowler signs with San Francisco for four years, $52 million.
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