MLB MVP 2015: List of Finalists, Odds, Predictions for AL and NL Awards

While the Kansas City Royals are still basking in the glow of their first world championship in 30 years, Major League Baseball will put an official bow on the 2015 season on Nov. 19 with the announcement of the American League and National League Most Valuable Player. 

On Tuesday night, the Baseball Writers' Association of America announced the three finalists in each league who will compete for the prestigious honor.

National League

At the risk of taking away suspense, this is Bryce Harper's award. That's not to say Paul Goldschmidt and Joey Votto didn't have excellent seasons in their own right, but the Washington Nationals star was on a different level than anyone else in the NL this season. 

The only "argument" that a certain section of the voting populace will make against Harper is his team didn't make the playoffs. To counter that, I will say it's a completely irrelevant argument to suggest a team's disappointing season is a reflection of a player's outstanding accomplishment. 

Looking at the numbers Harper put up in 2015, just offensively, this is arguably the best season anyone has put up since Albert Pujols' final MVP season with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009. 

Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post took Harper's 2015 stats even further to illustrate why the former No. 1 overall pick is the NL MVP:

This isn’t just the best offensive season of 2015 (and we say “offensive” because we don’t even need to factor in the fact that Harper developed into a superior right fielder), but it fits in with the heydays of legends. That 1.107 OPS is the highest in baseball since 2008 (Albert Pujols, 1.114). Harper’s average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage slash line entering the weekend: .331/.461/.646, all at age 22. Compare that to .325/.451/.618. That’s the five-year average, from ages 22-26, for one Mickey Mantle. 

Before the season started, ESPN published an anonymous poll of MLB players in which Harper was named the most overrated player in the sport. It was ridiculous at the time considering he was just 22 years old, had already won NL Rookie of the Year and had been hampered by injuries. 

Now, eight months later at the ripe old age of 23, Harper is the overwhelming favorite to win NL MVP and should have that honor bestowed upon him for having a historic season when factoring in how young he still is. 

For comparison, this year's likely NL Rookie of the Year winner, Kris Bryant, is 10 months older than Harper. Washington's superstar lived up to his potential in 2015 and will only get better from here. 

American League

Unlike in the NL MVP race, things are much more interesting in the American League, even though the final voting likely won't reflect that.

The Kansas City Royals' Lorenzo Cain is an excellent inclusion, as he quietly posted a .307/.361/.477 slash line, saved 18 runs in center field playing most of his games at spacious Kauffman Stadium and racked up 6.6 wins above replacement. 

As good as Cain was in 2015, though, he has no shot to win this award because the two players he's competing against were on their own island in the AL.

This is one year in which two players have a legitimate case as MVP. Josh Donaldson and Mike Trout were neck and neck virtually all year, especially down the stretch when everyone is paying attention. 

Trout's biggest advantage comes in the most important category: on-base percentage. The basic goal of baseball is to try to score more runs than your opponent, which is only accomplished by getting on base. Trout was superior to Donaldson in that category by a substantial margin. 

Another factor that works in Trout's favor, especially when looking at offensive stats, is home ballpark. Donaldson went from the abyss of O.co Coliseum to the bandbox of Rogers Centre and, not surprisingly, had the best offensive season of his career. 

According to ESPN's Park Factors, Angel Stadium was the second-worst offensive park in baseball last season. 

There's also a myth that Donaldson performed better than Trout in clutch situations, something Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports called out:

Here is Donaldson with:
Runners on: .335/.409/.601
Runners in scoring position: .358/.445/.627
RISP with 2 outs: .254/.382/.444

Now Trout:
Runners on: .319/.458/.559 
Runners in scoring position: .352/.512/.693
RISP with 2 outs: .314/.556/.371

In every so-called clutch scenario, Trout is better. He’s 34 RBIs down on Donaldson because of these numbers, courtesy of Baseball Prospectus:

• Donaldson has come up with a runner on first base 204 times this year, Trout 197 times.
• Donaldson has come up with a runner on second base 121 times this year, Trout 95 times. 
• Donaldson has come up with a runner on third base 85 times this year, Trout 46 times.

In a race as close as this one, Trout's home park and significant advantage in on-base percentage should play a key role in deciding the outcome. 

However, as everyone knows, awards are as much about narratives as merit. Donaldson and Trout had fantastic seasons, but since only one can be rewarded for his efforts, voters will always lean the way of the player whose team was better. 

Harper's situation is different because he was so much better than the other NL contenders that voters, even those stuck on the playoff narrative, don't have an alternative to choose from. 

There's also something to be said for voter fatigue with Trout. It's not right or fair, but some in the BBWAA could consciously or subconsciously feel like they just want to give someone else their vote because the Los Angeles Angels star has been talked about in MVP discussion ad nauseam every year since 2012. 

Donaldson will win the AL MVP award because he was so great in 2015 and because the Toronto Blue Jays made the postseason. Trout is still the best player in the league, but sometimes that's not good enough to make you the MVP. 

Stats via FanGraphs.com unless otherwise noted

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