When Monday rolls around, 20 disappointed MLB teams will head home to watch their adversaries fight for a championship.
While the National League contestants are all set, three American League spots remain up for grabs. The final weekend's drama will largely reside in the American League West, where a comfortable Houston Astros advantage has decayed into a three-team race.
None of the AL's wild-card combatants look particularly terrifying, but the powerhouse awaiting the winner has everything pointing its way entering October. With so much up in the air, let's take a look at the current playoff picture and World Series odds, courtesy of OddsShark.
Break Up the Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays are decisive favorites to win it all for good reason. Armed with a smothering offense and pitching reinforcements, they're October's team to beat.
Since starting 50-50, Toronto has won 42 of its last 58 games. Wednesday's latest victory wrapped up its first AL East crown and playoff berth since 1993. As noted by ESPN Stats and Info, the clinching 15-run outburst was far from an aberration:
Even before the Blue Jays caught fire, they had the makings of a dangerous club. Troy Tulowitzki hasn't helped the offense much, but they still lead baseball in runs, home runs, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. A dozen players have hit more than 35 homers in 2015. The Blue Jays have three of them (Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion).
No wonder why their run differential is leaps and bounds ahead of the pack:
Heading into October, the Blue Jays also possess something they sorely lacked throughout the season: pitching. Acquired from the Detroit Tigers at the trade deadline, David Price has posted a 2.30 ERA through 11 starts, tallying 87 strikeouts through 74.1 innings.
The unexpected return of Marcus Stroman offers another big boost. Projected to miss the entire season with a torn ACL, the 24-year-old righty has resurfaced in September with immediate success, recording a 1.67 ERA through four victorious starts.
Just like that, Toronto has a legit one-two postseason punch to accompany a hulking lineup. Anything can happen in a best-of-five series, but it sure looks bad for any team headed to Canada.
NL Central Intrigue
As it stands now, one of baseball's three best teams will only play one postseason game. Another will get eliminated, leaving one survivor from the trio.
The St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs enter Thursday with MLB's top-three records. Pittsburgh and Chicago will settle for a wild-card game, where the winner advances to face St. Louis, who clinched a spot on Wednesday night with victory No. 100.
All roads to the World Series now lead to St. Louis, who control home-field advantage throughout the National League. Shortly after losing budding ace Carlos Martinez, the Cardinals welcomed back veteran Adam Wainwright.
Originally deemed out for the season with a torn Achilles, the 34-year-old righty made his season debut on Wednesday. He expressed his excitement to pitch again, per MLB.com's Jenifer Langosch:
Rather than replacing Martinez in the rotation, Wainwright will move to the bullpen, where he flourished during the team's 2006 title run. He provides another experienced arm and a morale boost for a club hoping Yadier Molina can don the catcher's match next week.
Meanwhile, the Cubs and Pirates are set for an epic, winner-take-all collision on Wednesday. The likely starters, Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole, respectively rank No. 2 and 3 in fielding independent pitching (FIP) behind Clayton Kershaw, according to FanGraphs.
Angels are Alive
On Sept. 1, the Los Angeles Angels trailed the Houston Astros by 7.5 games at 65-66. After rattling off seven straight victories, they now Houston by half a game for the AL's second wild-card bid.
Everyone expected much more from the defending division champs after a 98-win season culminating in a devastating ALDS sweep against the Kansas City Royals. Instead, they appeared poised to waste another MVP-caliber season from Mike Trout.
Now they can not only make the playoffs, but steal the division. They close the season with a four-game series against the Texas Rangers, who hold a three-game advantage. Current standing aside, the Angels don't profile as a prolific playoff contender.
Despite their 83-75 record, they have allowed more runs (650) than scored (643). The 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks were the last team to make the playoffs with a negative run margin (-20).
They rate No. 13 in team ERA and No. 25 in OPS, so how are they still standing? They have already won 10 one-run games this month, giving them an AL-best 33 victories by exactly one score. To keep this up, the bullpen must keep shining. In September, they have collectively recorded a 3.40 ERA, 101 strikeouts and 31 walks through 90 innings.
With such a tiny window of opportunity, everything must go right for them to redeem last year's postseason shortcoming.
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