Separated for most of the division series, the American League and National League coalesce for a full batch of MLB playoff action on Monday.
The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros, both sporting 2-1 leads, can punch tickets past the American League Division Series by winning Game 4. Each squad has a chance to advance at home against the favored opposition.
While neither Game 3 on the Senior Circuit side carries the same dire ramifications, the stakes are certainly high with each series at a 1-1 stalemate. MLB.com's Richard Justice highlighted the significance of taking a tiebreaking Game 3 in a best-of-five series:
Upping the ante, both home clubs are hosting their first playoff games in quite some time. Wrigley Field and Citi Field will be rocking during these pivotal NLDS clashes.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs, an organization led by analytically inclined general manager Theo Epstein and universally respected manager Joe Maddon, won a playoff game by bunting the St. Louis Cardinals to death.
Bunting gets a bad reputation, and rightfully so. Outs are precious, so giving them away is suboptimal strategy. Maddon, ever the adaptable tactician, uncharacteristically had his club lay down not one, but two bunts to drive in runs during Game 2's five-run second inning.
“Everything has to be set up properly for that,” Maddon told Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan. “It just was. I mean, that happens every so often. I guess it’s a harvest moon possibly.”
They also benefited from two Cardinals errors and a homer from Jorge Soler, who didn't start Game 1. Now the series returns to Chicago even at one victory apiece, and Jake Arrieta will start Wrigley Field's first playoff game since 2008. As noted by Bleacher Report's MLB Twitter account, he's having himself a nice little stretch:
Michael Wacha, meanwhile, limps into this monumental matchup. The 2013 October hero has allowed 21 runs over his last five starts, issuing seven home runs, 18 walks and 19 strikeouts through 24 abysmal innings. Through four meetings, the Cubs touched him up for 16 total runs, including 10 in two September collisions.
Examining his late-season hiccups, FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan discovered a steep decline in Wacha's command:
One of the things about Wacha—when he’s right, he’s a strike-thrower. He throws about two-thirds of his pitches for strikes, which is comfortably better than average. Never before has he been in a serious extended strike slump. His rate the last five games is 60%, and until now he’d barely ever spent any time below 65%. Since becoming a regular starter, Wacha’s had six starts where he fell short of 60% strikes. Three of them have come in his last four outings.
Wacha, who had never thrown over 150 innings through a professional season before logging 181.1 this year, needs to transform from train wreck back to ace in a hurry. There's no room for error against the galaxy's hottest hurler.
Over his last four starts, Arrieta has tossed 31 scoreless innings, recording 38 strikeouts and one walk. Those are pretty good numbers. It'd take some mystical Cardinals devil magic to pull off a victory against the red-hot ace.
Prediction: Cubs 5, Cardinals 1
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Heading into Game 3, a slew of magnificent starting pitching should permeate the headlines. Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Greinke combined to register 41 strikeouts over two games at Chavez Ravine.
Instead, the top story is Chase Utley saving the Dodgers by breaking Ruben Tejada's leg. The veteran second baseman and longtime Mets antagonist offered a terrifying justification pointing to a damaged culture in need of change.
"I was trying to put a body on him to try to break up a double play," Utley said after Saturday night's debacle, per USA Today's Jorge Ortiz. "You're taught from a young age to try to break up double plays. I think that's winning baseball."
Rather than immaturely retaliating in Citi Field's first ever home game, the best revenge will be earning a victory. Wilmer Flores, who turned into a fan favorite due to the Carlos Gomez false alarm, will now start at shortstop in place of Tejada. The 24-year-old sported a .600 slugging percentage against lefties, so don't be surprised if he makes his presence felt against Brett Anderson.
After the Utley incident, most of Monday's attention will hover around Matt Harvey. Weeks ago, his postseason availability remained in doubt. At best, it looked like he'd make a short start to avoid an extensive workload in his first year back from Tommy John surgery.
The Mets twice skipped his turn to preserve his innings. On Sept. 20, they pulled him after five innings and 77 pitches of one-hit ball against the New York Yankees. Then they oddly reversed course, having Harvey pitch 6.2 innings against the Cincinnati Reds and six more frames in a meaningless final start against the Washington Nationals.
Don't expect the 26-year-old righty to log 121 pitches like deGrom, but his stern restrictions are seemingly tossed out the window. The pitcher indicated as much last week, as relayed by MLB.com's Anthony DiComo:
There'll be no shortage of remarks about The Dark Knight needing to save the city. For all the concern of his health, he has grown stronger down the stretch, allowing two runs with 24 strikeouts and one walk over his final three outings.
Anderson is a serviceable starter, but this is the first time he made 30 or more starts since 2009. A 3.69 ERA and 5.79 strikeouts per nine innings makes him the weak link in a star-studded series of starters. Anything can happen in one game, but Yoenis Cespedes and David Wright should offer enough run support for Harvey.
Prediction: Mets 5, Dodgers 3
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