For the second time during this young postseason, two National League aces will clash in a winner-take-all elimination showdown when the New York Mets face the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night.
Before beginning the division series, Jake Arrieta guided the Chicago Cubs past Gerrit Cole's Pittsburgh Pirates in the NL Wild Card Game. Years could pass before witnessing such a star-studded pitching affair with everything on the line.
Or maybe just eight days. Zack Greinke didn't garner an attention-grabbing finish on par with Arrieta' sizzling second half, but he led MLB with an unconscionable 1.66 ERA. Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom notched a 2.54 ERA and recently registered 13 strikeouts and zero unintentional walks to win Game 1.
After outdueling Clayton Kershaw, he'll need to throw another gem against Los Angeles' other Cy Young Award candidate to lift New York into the National League Championship Series.
Mets vs. Dodgers: Game 5
When: Thursday, Oct. 15 at 8:07 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California
TV: TBS
Live Stream: Watch TBS
Odds (via Odds Shark): LA -1.5
Tickets: ScoreBig.com
Preview
Runs are not going to come easy at Chavez Ravine. Researching the Greinke-deGrom matchup, Sporting News' Jesse Spector discovered their combined 4.20 ERA is the lowest ever of two qualified starters in an elimination playoff game.
David Wright, who hasn't recorded a hit since breaking Game 1 open with a two-run single, discussed the marquee aces once again stealing the show.
“We’ve had big pitching matchups this whole series,” Wright said, per Spector. “I mean, you look at Kershaw-deGrom and then Greinke-(Noah) Syndergaard, and then you go back out there for deGrom-Greinke—if you like pitching matchups, this is the series for you.”
Through four games, both teams have compiled a combined 89 strikeouts. Leading the way with 13, deGrom tied Tom Seaver for the club's postseason franchise record, per MLB's Twitter page:
Yet it's easy to see why Vegas favors the Dodgers. They'll play a home game with baseball's ERA leader on the mound, and Greinke has earned a quality start in every Dodger Stadium outing this year. His adversary, on the other hand, showed some vulnerability down the stretch—allowing six runs to the last-place Philadelphia Phillies in August and another six against the Miami Marlins on Sept. 15.
L.A. getting to deGrom is feasible. Greinke pitching the Dodgers out of fighting distance? Not as much.
While deGrom has a lower floor, his 2.70 fielding independent pitching (FIP) topped Greinke's 2.76 tally. Matt Harvey entered 2015 as New York's top draw, but that's no longer the case. Mets manager Terry Collins is comfortable with hedging the club's season on deGrom.
"He's the guy we want on the mound," Collins told MLB.com's Anthony DiComo. "You kind of feel real confident that he's pitched well out there and that he's going to go out and do it again. Once again, this is a time when you need your guys to step up, and you certainly think he'll do that."
Kershaw, who put to bed any nonsense about his inability to pitch in the postseason, also gave deGrom credit, per ESPN New York's Adam Rubin:
Each squad will head into Thursday with the same goal: break into the other team's bullpen before its closer. Kenley Jansen and Jeurys Familia are two of the game's most electric relief pitchers, but things get interesting beforehand.
In Game 1, the Dodgers scored a run off Tyler Clippard before Collins turned to Familia for the four-out save. Dodgers manager Don Mattingly took out Kershaw after seven on Tuesday, briefly giving Citi Field a second wind before inserting Jansen into the game for another four-out finish.
With so much on the line, Collins and Mattingly should consider avoiding the inevitable and using their stars for two innings. Collins, however, could have one more ace up his sleeve in Noah Syndergaard, who will enter Thursday night on four days' rest.
Considering the heat he fired throughout Saturday's start, via ESPN Stats & Info, just imagine how hard Thor could throw in a one-inning relief cameo:
The Dodgers are favored because of the setting and slight pitching edge, but the Mets sport the offensive upper hand. Following the All-Star break—shortly before acquiring Yoenis Cespedes, promoting Michael Conforto and welcoming Travis d'Arnaud back from the disabled list—they posted an NL-best .770 OPS. Conforto will return to the starting lineup against a righty. Curtis Granderson, Daniel Murphy and the struggling Lucas Duda no longer have to face a like-handed pitcher.
Mattingly, however, must again decide if he can trust the slumping Yasmani Grandal and Joc Pederson. Worse yet, Yasiel Puig doesn't look recovered from a hamstring injury yet, going 0-for-6 with three strikeouts this series.
This game is a toss-up too close to predict. Now here's your prediction. After another strong start from deGrom, Syndergaard and Familia close the door on a tight lead, creating a NLCS matchup of historic hard-luck losers with the Chicago Cubs.
Prediction: Mets 3, Dodgers 2
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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