Somebody different will win the World Series this year.
Sick of the San Francisco Giants hoisting MLB's trophy every even year? Tired of the St. Louis Cardinals filling all the gaps in between? Longing for the day where the Evil Empire gets conquered while the other budding, big-market villains in Boston also step aside? Good news: Both the American League and National League Championship Series present fresh faces far removed from their last victory parade.
Of the four teams standing, the Toronto Blue Jays were the latest to run the table. They last brought the title to Canada in 1993, two years before current closer Roberto Osuna was born. The Chicago Cubs have a slightly longer drought to snap.
These two series have a tall act to follow. After concluding a wild division series full of controversial calls, broken legs, broken feelings, near riots, shattered baseballs and five-star bat flips, four teams remain standing.
ALCS Preview: Royals vs. Blue Jays
Both favorites took a hectic path to the ALCS showdown, but the AL's top two teams survived five-game series capped off by Game 5 rallies.
Think Wednesday got testy between the Blue Jays and Texas Rangers? The Jays and Royals aren't exactly best buds, either. Tensions mounted when these contenders collided for a heated August series. Royals pitcher Edinson Volquez hit Toronto third baseman Josh Donaldson early in one game, and he further infuriated the MVP candidate by continuing to pitch inside.
Per the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough, the 32-year-old pitcher showed no sympathy after the game.
“He’s a little baby,” Volquez said. “He was crying like a baby. He got mad at everybody like he’s Barry Bonds. He’s not Barry Bonds. He’s got three years in the league. We’ve been around longer than he has.”
Guess who's starting Game 1? McCullough confirmed Kansas City's decision shortly after eliminating the Houston Astros:
Bad blood aside, a pitcher with a 3.82 fielding independent pitching (FIP) must combat baseball's premier offense. For their standards, the Blue Jays' 19 runs scored over their final three American League Division Series wins are perfectly normal.
The Royals are no offensive juggernaut, but they're better than the unit that fell one victory shy of winning the World Series last year. They finished No. 7 in runs scored and No. 11 in weighted on-base average (wOBA). For the record, Toronto rates first in both those categories and virtually everything else.
Beating the Blue Jays at their game doesn't work. Ask the Rangers. Unfortunately for everyone else, scoring runs is the entire point of this game. Kansas City will have to make the most of its speed and defense to overcome its powerful adversary.
Toronto boasts a clear offensive edge, but neither side can claim a far superior pitching staff. Both clubs rate in the middle in terms of ERA and FIP, but the Blue Jays bring better command into a series against a hyper-aggressive offense.
During the opening round, Clayton Kershaw broke the "He can't pitch in October" narrative. Now it's David Price's turn. The 30-year-old, who was acquired by Toronto at the trade deadline, surrendered five runs in Game 1's loss. Then, inserted into Game 4 with a 7-1 lead for some weird reason, he relinquished three more scores.
He now holds a career 5.04 postseason ERA, with Texas inflicting most of the damage. Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post even suggested Toronto didn't want Price pitching Game 5. Those 50 innings, however, are too small of a sample size to suggest a former Cy Young Award winner with a career 3.09 ERA in the regular season can't handle October.
After overcoming an unceremonious exit down 2-0, Toronto is back in the driver's seat as the team to beat. Ferocious hitting and a couple of strong starts from Price and Marcus Stroman will lift the Blue Jays past the defending AL champions.
Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com
- Login to post comments