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MLB Playoffs 2015: Updated Odds, Predictions for NL Wild Card, ALDS Matchups

Playoff baseball is officially underway.

The 2015 MLB postseason field is down to nine after the Houston Astros dispatched the New York Yankees on Tuesday night. After Wednesday night's National League Wild Card Game, eight squads will remain standing.

While the NL will showcase an array of aces—starting with Jake Arrieta and Gerrit Cole—the American League figures to display a stronger offensive punch despite Tuesday's offensive shortage. Yet anyone accustomed to the playoffs knows the stars don't always steal the show.

After examining postseason odds, courtesy of Odds Shark, let's take a look at three unheralded players who will play pivotal roles for their respective clubs.

 

Playoff X-Factors

Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs

Don't expect much offense with Arrieta and Cole sparring at PNC Park. Every minuscule detail will matter for the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates in a low-scoring contest, which puts a premium on defense behind both pitching studs.

Chicago holds the fielding edge, finishing the season No. 4 in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). While rookie Addison Russell didn't match Kris Bryant and Kyle Schwarber's offensive impact, he dazzled with his glove.

For most of the season, the Cubs slotted him at second base, which is like driving a Ferrari below the speed limit. The 21-year-old excelled there with nine defensive runs saved (DRS), but he saved 10 runs in less time once converted to shortstop.

ESPN.com's Mark Simon named Russell September's Defensive Player of the Month for his stellar work at short:

It hasn't mattered where the Cubs put Russell this season, whether it be second base or shortstop. He's performed remarkably well at both. Entering Thursday he ranked fourth in the majors in defensive runs saved for the season at both second base and shortstop. He might not win a Gold Glove, but he will be a legitimate candidate for The Fielding Bible's annual award for multi-positional excellence.

Buried down the order with a below-average bat, he won't likely alter the Wild Card Game in the batter's box. On the diamond, however, he'll continue to empower Arrieta's late-season surge.

 

Ryan Madson, RP, Kansas City Royals

Last year, the Kansas City Royals overcame a frail offense and shaky starting pitching in part thanks to their excellent bullpen. Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland formed an untouchable trio, but they won't have Holland's services this time around.

The closer recently underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. He'll miss the postseason and likely all of 2016.

This does not, however, spell doom for the Royals. They still have two strong arms anchoring the bullpen, and Ryan Madson will now assume a larger role. One of the season's best but least talked-about stories, the 35-year-old reliever pitched in the majors for the first time since 2011.

Back from his own UCL tear, the veteran notched a 2.13 ERA and 0.96 WHIP through 63.1 innings, amassing 58 strikeouts and 14 walks. Back in June, Fox Sports Kansas City's Matthew DeFranks profiled Madson's grueling recovery:

Madson underwent exercises that summoned expletives and commanded tears from grown men. For some, the workouts bordered on torture, the pain too excruciating and the treatment too intense. Madson would see people at EVO [Evolutionary Training] once before they vanished, chasing comfort and escaping torment. But he needed to regain his arm strength.

"That's what I had to go through to get it back," Madson says. "Not everybody is willing to go through that. Flat out. That hard work, pain, that's what it took."

Once again, starting pitching is not Kansas City's top strength, especially with midseason acquisition Johnny Cueto reeling. Manager Ned Yost will look to recreate last year's magic with Madson and Herrera bridging the late-inning gap to Davis.

 

Chris Colabello, DH, Toronto Blue Jays

Even though they had a chance to obtain home-field advantage on the season's final Sunday. the Blue Jays didn't show much urgency. They instead allowed Mark Buehrle to aim for his 15th straight 200-inning campaign despite starting on one day's rest.

In all fairness, they have little reason to fear the Texas Rangers. The AL West champions rank No. 23 with a 4.23 team ERA, and Toronto's .344 weighted on-base average (wOBA) led all offenses by a wide margin.

Here's the scary part: The Blue Jays are even better against lefties, sporting a .354 wOBA. That's bad news for the Rangers, who will rely on ace Cole Hamels and fellow southpaw Derek Holland to pull off the upset.

From Josh Donaldson to Jose Bautista to Edwin Encarnacion, the Blue Jays are loaded with premium sluggers. If Troy Tulowitzki snaps out of his funk, even better. He won't receive the same level of attention, but Chris Colabello should also concern Texas.

The unlikely breakout star, cast away by the Minnesota Twins, hit .321/.367/.520 through 360 plate appearances. Carrying a .400 wOBA against lefties into the postseason, he should at least get hacks against Hamels and Holland.

While a .411 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) fueled his improbable success, he hasn't showed any signs of cooling down yet.

 

Note: All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Read more MLB news on BleacherReport.com

Poll

Best of the American League
Tampa Bay
19%
Boston
19%
Chicago
7%
Minnesota
10%
Los Angeles
17%
Texas
27%
Total votes: 270

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