After a five-month wait, baseball is finally here.
Actually, it was only four months that I longed for baseball, with March Madness really prolonging the desire for the seven-month marathon known as the MLB season.
However, baseball is here, my life is jam-packed with high school baseball season, fourth quarter projects, and studying for final exams. When this arrives, I know it's time to record my predictions somewhere.
I won't bore you with endless analysis of why I believe Houston will finish behind Pittsburgh, or why Florida will finish third in the NL East, but I will give you the division winners, the wild cards, the awards, and other miscellaneous predictions that I believe will have a large impact on the 2010 MLB season.
So without further adieu, I present to you my 2010 MLB predictions!
AL West: Seattle Mariners
When the Chone Figgins and Cliff Lee acquisitions were made, Seattle became a trendy pick to win the AL West. However, once Cliff Lee was put on the DL, and Seattle suddenly had question marks offensively and in the back of its rotation, they became a trendy pick to finish third. I will have none of this, and hereby stick with them to win the division.
I believe Los Angeles has more holes than Seattle overall, and while I do think they will be in the hunt until September, I just don't think they will be able to reclaim the division. Los Angeles' rotation just doesn't have the consistency they once did, with Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and Joel Pineiro all having question marks about their production. Paired with the loss of John Lackey, the Angels just won't have the pitching they once had.
Texas is a more interesting contender. If Rich Harden can give them 160 innings, Scott Feldman's production is close to his 2009 campaign, and Derek Holland matures, Texas has more than enough firepower offensively to win this division. However, I can not be sure of any of the above pitchers doing what they need to, and therefore, by process of elimination, we have the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle isn't as bad as most people think in terms of their depth of starting pitching, and their offense. Once they get Cliff Lee back, they will have the best 1-2 punch in baseball, and their back of the rotation should be very formidable. Bedard (looking for a June return) has some of the best stuff in baseball, Ian Snell is looking more comfortable, and Ryan Rowland-Smith is very underrated as a control pitcher.
Offensively, Casey Kotchman should give Seattle around a .290 average and 15 homers, which is very nice when you consider his sparkling defensive capabilities. Chone Figgins is essentially another leadoff hitter for the M's, Jose Lopez could hit 30 homers, Franklin Gutierrez should post Shin-Soo Choo type numbers, Milton Bradley looks like he's returned to his 2008 form, and Ichiro remains Ichiro. Look for Ken Griffey Jr. to play X-Factor, and if he returns to his 2007 form, Seattle could very easily take this division.
AL Central: Chicago White Sox
This race should come right down to the wire. Minnesota and Chicago are both clear-cut contenders in the very mediocre AL Central, and should be the only ones competing come September.
I'm worried about Minnesota's pitching. I believe wholeheartedly in Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker, but after that, it gets shaky. Carl Pavano needs to step up for an entire season for Minnesota to take the division. Also, their bullpen is very weak now with the subtraction of Joe Nathan. Rauch could be the guy, but Minnesota has come out and said they will do a closer-by-committee. Of the playoff contenders last year, Tampa Bay tried that...and that didn't work out so well.
Minnesota's offense should be fine. Mauer will look to defend his MVP season, Morneau should improve on his average, Hardy will return to hit 25 homers, Span looks great as a catalyst atop the order, Cuddyer and Kubel should hit 25-plus homers, and Delmon Young is primed for a breakout season after his offseason conditioning.
However, I will come out and say that because of Minnesota's loss of Joe Nathan, I'm giving the division to the White Sox.
Take a look at the rotation. Jake Peavy is healthy, Mark Buehrle is as consistent of a pitcher as you will find, John Danks is always improving, and Gavin Floyd has figured it out on the big league level.
I hate Bobby Jenks as their closer, but take a look at the rest of the bullpen. Matt Thornton did a splendid job setting Jenks up last year, and should get first crack at the closer role if Jenks falters. JJ Putz is a former closer, and he's finally healthy. Scott Linebrink is an excellent setup man that has been looking to close for a while now.
Offensively, Kornerko is a 30-home-run hitter, Gordon Beckham will be a star, Alexei Ramirez should improve and work towards being a consistent 20-20 player, Juan Pierre is an excellent leadoff man, Alexis Rios had a fluky year last year and will provide more power-speed help, and Carlos Quentin is healthy and ready to hit 30-plus homers once again. Andruw Jones has won the DH role and should hit 30 homers given full time playing. He has lost weight as well, which should help his average.
Look for this to be a possible one-game playoff at the end of the season.
AL East: New York Yankees
This is not as easy of a choice as most would make. The Yankees are aging, and their rotation still has questions, even with the return of Javier Vasquez. Even still, I'll go ahead and take them over Boston and Tampa Bay.
Sabathia will be a horse again, AJ Burnett should settle in during his second year in the Bronx, Andy Pettite will deliver another good season, and Javier Vasquez almost won the NL Cy Young award in 2009. Phil Hughes will be given a full shot at the fifth spot, and I expect he will be one of the best fifth starters in the bigs.
Looking at the lineup, Teixeira, Cano, Jeter, Rodriguez, and Granderson will remain All-Stars. In Yankee Stadium, I wouldn't be surprised if Granderson hits 40 homers. I'm not predicting that...but it wouldn't surprise me if it happened.
AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay Rays
Twenty-two blown saves. Seven walk-off losses. Thirty-two blown leads. Fourteen times, two or more runs were allowed in the ninth inning alone by Tampa Bay. These numbers are surely a recipe for failure in the American League East. (Yes, I am very much enjoying my subscription to Baseball-Reference's Play Index!)
Enter Rafael Soriano, proven closer. Assume Tampa Bay's bullpen cuts the blown saves in half. Assume they now blow 21 of their leads. That's 11 more wins, which gets Tampa Bay into the playoffs easily. The rotation is only improving with Jamie Shields due to bounce back, Matt Garza blossoming into an ace, David Price pitching in his second MLB season, and Jeff Niemann with another full year at the major league level.
The offense wasn't as good as Tampa hoped last year either. Carlos Pena hit .227, Dioner Navarro stunk it up, and Longoria came back down to earth after an incredible first couple months. The right field job was awful, Pat Burrell was too, as was BJ Upton.
Only assuming Longoria improves, and BJ Upton's shoulder problems are gone, paired with Tampa's pitching, you have a very, very dangerous team. They have to get off to a fast start, though, because if they don't...Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena won't be in a Rays uniform in August.
NL West: Colorado Rockies
Colorado is here because they have the least amount of questions of any team in the West. Arizona has the questions of Brandon Webb, the back end of the rotation, and the consistency/maturation of their young offense. San Francisco has no offense outside of Pablo Sandoval, and Los Angeles has questions about their rotation outside of Clayton Kershaw, and about their offense outside of Matt Kemp.
Colorado is the most well-rounded team in the West. Their pitching is strong with a bona fide ace in Ubaldo Jimenez, and a solid rotation in Jorge De La Rosa, Aaron Cook, Jason Hammel, and possibly Jeff Francis. Their offense is deadly, with spark plugs Dexter Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez atop the order, and sluggers Troy Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart, and Brad Hawpe. This future Hall of Famer named Helton also plays for Colorado.
NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals
Strangely enough, the two weakest divisions (the AL and NL Central) gave me the most trouble in selecting a winner. Here, Milwaukee was the team that challenged St. Louis in my mind.
Milwaukee's offense looks to be great with Carlos Gomez and Alcides Escobar wreaking havoc on the basepaths, and Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder mashing away with their bats. However, outside of Yovani Gallardo, their pitching staff looks very weak.
St. Louis is extremely balanced outside their lack of a leadoff hitter, and should take this division if Chris Carpenter stays healthy. Wainwright and Carpenter are the best 1-2 punch in the National League, and Pujols and Holliday are a heck of a heart of the order. Brendan Ryan at short could provide them the leadoff hitter they are missing, but if not, Skip Schumaker hit .300 last year, and should be able to get on for Pujols and Holliday. Colby Rasmus had a good rookie year, and looks to improve on his average and power, while Ryan Ludwick looks to bounce back.
NL East: Philadelphia Phillies
Take the best team in the National League, and upgrade their ace to, say...the best pitcher in baseball. Need I even explain why I am taking Philadelphia here?
NL Wild Card: Atlanta Braves
In Bobby Cox's last year, Atlanta will do something they haven't done in a while: get back into the playoffs. Tommy Hanson leads a strong pitching rotation that includes Jair Jurrjens, former Cy Young Award winner Tim Hudson, an improving Kenshin Kawakami, and strong bounce-back candidate Derek Lowe. The stagnant offense of 2009 is improved with slugger Troy Glaus, a motivated Chipper Jones, an improved Yunel Escobar, a full year out of Martin Prado and Nate McLouth, and the very special Jason Heyward, who could very well have an Albert Pujols-type rookie year.
When I make awards predictions, my only rule to make things interesting is: Don't pick last year's winner. Although Albert Pujols will probably win the NL MVP, I can't pick him because of this rule. Keep this in mind.
AL MVP: Evan Longoria
His first two years were great. It's time for him to step up and be spectacular. I'll predict .298, 42 homers, 10 steals, topping the century mark in both runs and RBI.
NL MVP: Hanley Ramirez
If I'm not taking Pujols, I'm taking the shortstop who won the batting title, and could go 30-30 this year, possibly 30-40. I'll predict .336, 28 homers, 35 stolen bases, also topping the century mark in runs and RBI.
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
The King puts it all together, much like his 2009 campaign, only this year he gets the hardware to show for it: 2.63 era, 232 innings, 220 strikeouts, 20 wins.
NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay
Who else? Roy gets his second Cy Young with a 2.42 ERA, 236 innings, 210 strikeouts, 25 wins. Yes, the 25 wins is a huge prediction, but with the type of firepower the Phillies have offensively, it's certainly doable.
AL Rookie of the Year: Wade Davis
Great stuff + a shot at the fifth starter job for a top-five baseball team + a little bit of experience = Rookie of the Year. 3.76 ERA, 190 innings, 180 strikeouts, 12 wins.
NL Rookie of the Year: Jason Heyward
Like I said before, Heyward is special; the next Ken Griffey Jr. He has no real flaw in his game, and should take this award easily. He could have an Albert Pujols rookie year, but I'll play this one a little safe: .293, 26 homers, 8 steals, 95 RBI, 87 runs. Do I want to go bigger with the numbers? Yes. But for my credibility's sake, I won't.
AL Comeback Player of the Year: Francisco Liriano
It was Liriano or Milton Bradley. I went with the one with no anger issues and a sparkling spring.
NL Comeback Player of the Year: Manny Ramirez
Such a poor 2009 for such a great hitter. Ramirez will want a big contract again, and will play like it.
World Series: Mariners over Phillies
Come June, I may regret the decision to take the Mariners if Lee remains hurt, Felix falls apart, Bedard isn't ready to come back, and/or Milton Bradley resumes his torment of Major League Baseball teams. However, I firmly believe that the stars are lining up for Junior in his last year (in all probability), and would love to see Cliff Lee versus Roy Halladay, possibly twice in this series.
The matchup just intrigues me so much—small ball versus home runs, small market versus big market, Roy Halladay versus Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez versus Cole Hamels. Now, in a couple months I may have the Rays here, but for the moment I have the Mariners sending the Kid into retirement with a World Series ring. Bon voyage Junior, you've had a tremendous career.
Miscellaneous Predictions
- Speaking of which, Ken Griffey Jr. will be a factor in the Mariners' World Series run, and hit 20-plus homers.
- Carl Crawford finishes behind only Longoria and Mauer in MVP voting, stealing 78 bases.
- Roy Halladay wins 25 games for the first time since Bob Welch in 1990.
- Matt Garza and Justin Verlander both toss no-hitters
- For this year's head-scratching no hitter, I'll go with Jorge De La Rosa.
- Justin Upton finishes fourth in MVP voting, hits .295 with 38 homers, 22 stolen bases, but doesn't have enough RBI or runs to overtake Pujols or Ramirez for the MVP...this year.
- Ryan Braun goes 40-15 while hitting .320. Yeah, he finishes third in the MVP voting. Wow.
- Ryan Howard, finishing all the way down at fifth in MVP voting, hits an astounding 52 homers. Welcome to prominence, National League.
- Welcome back to relevance! Brad Penny, Gavin Floyd, Barry Zito all get 16 wins, Andruw Jones hits 30 homers if he gets 550 at-bats.
- Juan Pierre steals 72 bases for the Go-Go-Sox 2.0. Speaking of which, Beckham and Teahen both steal 15, Rios and Ramirez both steal 30.
- BJ Upton puts it together, hitting .280 with 23 homers and 45 steals.
- Franklin Gutierrez puts together a 20-20 season, as does Chris Young and Carlos Gonzalez.
- Milton Bradley hits above .300, and puts up at least 20 homers.
- Bobby Cox gets thrown out in what would be his last playoff game, but instead of ending his career ironically, he actually comes back for one last year: 2011.
- The National League finally takes the All-Star Game.
These are my random hair-brained predictions that I strung together at the last minute. My division winners though, took a lot of thought and research.
So, let's get this straight. The Mariners win the World Series, the National League wins the All-Star Game, Jorge De La Rosa throws a no hitter, Milton Bradley plays well without disrupting Seattle's clubhouse, we have two 70-plus base stealers, and someone who hits 52 homers finishes fifth in MVP voting?
You heard me.
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