The 2015 Major League Baseball Rule 5 draft, being held Thursday at the winter meetings in Nashville, Tennessee, is not likely to churn out a future superstar or MVP candidate, but there are always diamonds found in the rough from the minor league scrapheap.
Josh Hamilton is the most famous Rule 5 draftee of the last decade, being selected by the Cincinnati Reds in 2006. The first overall pick in the 1999 draft, Hamilton worked his way back from rock bottom to have a three-year stretch as one of the most dominant hitters in baseball.
MLB rule changes since 2006 have made it more difficult to find impact talent because players are kept under control of a franchise for an extra year before teams must decide whether to protect them on the 40-man roster.
As you would expect, the longer a player is under team control, the more time he has to determine how much of a role he will have in the future. Age is also a big factor because a player who is 22 or 23 has a better opportunity to turn into something than a player who is 24 or 25.
Teams are not obligated to make a selection, and most likely won't. Once a team skips its selection, it can't make a pick if the draft goes into Rounds 2, 3, etc.
With a limited talent pool to choose from, teams must be more diligent while trying to find a player capable of holding down a 25-man roster spot so that the selection in the Rule 5 draft bears some fruit.
Top Prospects Available
Corey Black, RHP (Current Team: Chicago Cubs)
When the New York Yankees picked Corey Black in the 2012 draft, odds were working against him to be a starting pitcher by virtue of his being an undersized right-hander.
The 5'11", 175-pounder finally shifted to the bullpen in 2015 with 28 relief appearances (37 games), posting a terrific 101 strikeouts in 86 innings.
That is indicative of the power stuff Black brings to the table. MLB.com's scouting report noted the pitcher has hit 100 mph with "riding effort" and has a "mid-80s slider" to go along with it. The report added he has a deep arsenal, which is necessary to start, but is "destined to become a reliever because there's effort in his crossfire delivery and he lacks control and command."
The last part is relevant for why Black has been unable to get past Double-A despite being a college draftee with three years of professional experience. Along with his 101 strikeouts last year, Black had 47 walks. In 370.2 minor league innings, he's issued 188 free passes.
Black's erratic control and command are going to limit his ultimate ceiling because his power stuff is what every team hopes to find in a closer or high-leverage reliever.
He could get integrated into the big leagues as a swing man who works multiple innings at a time or as a sixth- or seventh-inning arm to see if his control will get better with consistent work at the highest level.
Teoscar Hernandez, OF (Current Team: Houston Astros)
Teoscar Hernandez is unlikely to be drafted on Thursday by virtue of having played one bad full season at Double-A in which he hit .219/.275/.362 in 121 games, but there is a lot to dream on with the 23-year-old.
For instance, Hernandez had 33 stolen bases and 17 home runs. He's a great-looking athlete at 6'2" and 180 pounds with the kind of tools that aren't often found in a Rule 5 prospect.
MLB.com grades Hernandez as having four average or better tools (power, run, arm, defense) while also highlighting what may be a fatal flaw in his package:
Hernandez stands out for his athleticism and power-speed combination. If he can develop more feel at the plate, he has the potential to become a five-tool player. To do so, he'll need to refine his pitch recognition and cut down on his strikeouts after whiffing in a quarter of his plate appearances during his first two years of full-season ball.
Hernandez is not ready for the big leagues, which is why the Rule 5 draft is problematic for a player like him. It requires players to be on the 25-man rosters out of spring training, or else they go back to their previous teams.
Yet just from a tools and prospect level, Hernandez is as impressive as any player who wasn't kept on a 40-man roster this offseason. As long as Hernandez maintains his speed and defensive profile, he projects as a solid center fielder.
Hernandez has to develop his hit tool. But the offensive bar for center field is lower than a corner spot, so it's plausible to think the Dominican Republic native can be in the big leagues late next season with a few adjustments.
Onelki Garcia, LHP (Current Team: Chicago White Sox)
If I were to bet on one player from the Rule 5 draft sticking in MLB when next season starts, it would be Onelki Garcia.
Admittedly, that's something of a cheat because Garcia already tasted the big leagues in 2013. He pitched 1.1 innings over three games with the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing four walks and two earned runs.
There is also another reason to think Garcia will catch on as a reliever out of spring training: He's left-handed. He's not the only southpaw available—Reymin Guduan and Sam Selman are other prominent lefties up for grabs—but his advantage over them is having already reached the highest level.
As noted by MLB.com, Garcia also has the necessary ingredients to become an impact reliever: "His fastball sits at 92-95 mph and seems quicker coming out of his deliberate delivery. He throws two versions of a curveball, a hard breaker that reaches the low 80s and gets swings and misses, and a mid-70s bender that he can locate for strikes."
Last year was a disappointing effort from Garcia, as he posted a 4.82 ERA with 64 hits allowed and 29 walks in 56 innings. The power arsenal was on display with 72 strikeouts, but the command around the zone has to improve to make his stuff work.
There's not a perfect player available in the Rule 5 draft, so teams have to be opportunistic. Garcia is the best of the lot because of his two-pitch mix, being left-handed and brief MLB experience. He may not be the first player taken, but his impact will be the greatest in 2016.
Stats and measurables courtesy of MiLB.com unless otherwise noted.
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