Rumor turned to report when the MLB offseason's first blockbuster trade unfolded Monday.
Following constant buzz about the Atlanta Braves shopping Jason Heyward, they dealt him and relief pitcher Jordan Walden to the St. Louis Cardinals for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins. MLB's Twitter page pounced on the news:
The trade signifies Atlanta's plans to look ahead, as Heyward represents the best player involved in the exchange by a wide margin. Despite his stilted power production, his .351 on-base percentage and Gold Glove defense earned him a 5.1 WAR in 2014.
Miller, meanwhile, regressed with 6.25 strikeouts per nine innings, a 4.54 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and 0.2 WAR. Yet, with Heyward hitting free agency in a year, the Braves took the long-term approach with the 24-year-old pitcher under team control.
This move is the first major deal of the offseason, but it won't be the last. Let's take a look at what other trades could follow.
Andre Ethier on the Move?
The Los Angeles Dodgers house three exorbitantly paid outfielders, and that doesn't include star Yasiel Puig and top prospect Joc Pederson. New president Andrew Friedman has a tall task ahead of him as he tries to unload Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and/or Matt Kemp.
Per Cot's Baseball Contracts, those three outfielders will combine to earn over $60.5 million in 2015. The end isn't in sight either, as they're all on the books for at least three more years. Friedman would make an immediate positive impact by unloading Ethier or Crawford.
According to ESPN's Buster Olney, he has the best chance of finding a trading partner for Ethier:
The cheapest of the three, the 32-year-old lefty will make 53.5 million over the next three years with a 2018 club option. That, however, remains a steep price to pay for someone who hit .249/.322/.370 with four home runs last season.
Despite that down season, he's a .285/.359/.462 career hitter who notched a 2.9 WAR in 2012 and 2013. If another team gets that guy, Ethier goes from massively overpaid to just a tad overpaid.
Crawford, 33, had a much better 2014, hitting .300/.339/.429 with eight homers, 23 steals and a 2.5 WAR. His troubled past of injuries are likely steering teams away, as he has averaged 95.5 games played per season over the past four years.
Mariners "Fielding Offers" for Hisashi Iwakuma
The best team to miss the postseason, the Seattle Mariners fell short of October baseball with 87 wins and a plus-80 run differential. A pitching staff that led the American League in team ERA (3.17) could not overcome an offense that placed 25th in OPS.
A year after signing Robinson Cano, the Mariners are still eager to procure another marquee bat. According to The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, that drive has led them to entertain offers for their second ace, Hisashi Iwakuma: "Seattle has fielded inquiries from a few teams on the 33-year-old Iwakuma. The Red Sox have had at least internal conversations about him. The Mariners would want an impact hitter, such as Yoenis Cespedes, in return."
During his third MLB season, Iwakuma registered a 3.52 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a 3.0 walk percentage, the second-lowest clip among starters after Phil Hughes. Joining forces with Felix Hernandez gives Seattle one of the game's most potent one-two punches.
The emergence of young hurlers Taijuan Walker and James Paxton could compel the Mariners to shop Iwakuma for a big-time bat. He'll also warrant a sizable raise upon reaching free agency next year, but they'll need a big return to deal him and stay in contention during 2015.
Padres Dangling Top Starters for Offense
Last season, the San Diego Padres placed last in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. They cannot blame those foibles all on Petco Park, as they recorded a .621 OPS on the road. They need better hitting in the worst way.
If giving up one of their top starting pitchers is what it takes, Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal said they're willing to have that discussion:
Rosenthal listed those potential trading partners before the Braves acquired Miller, so they're now a far less likely candidate. All three starters posted great stats in 2014, but other teams must beware the Petco factor, particularly for Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner.
Ross has three more years under three control, Cashner two and Ian Kennedy just one. Set to turn 30 before next Opening Day, Kennedy makes the most sense for a win-now team to scoop up, but his expiring contract hinders the return San Diego can net.
If that wasn't enough to confirm San Diego's persistence on fortifying a floundering offense, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman also linked the club to free-agent Pablo Sandoval.
The Padres, who held a $90.6 team payroll in 2014, would have to offer the third baseman an exorbitant contract to convince him to play half his games in Petco for one of the San Francisco Giants' divisional foes.
After a 77-85 season, the Padres are on the way up. In order to continue that climb back into relevancy, they'll need to snatch some impact position players any way they can get them.
Note: All advanced statistics are courtesy of FanGraphs. Contract info via Cot's Baseball Contracts.
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