The Major League Baseball offseason: where teams' wildest dreams come true.
Or, their worst nightmares.
Sad, but true. The offseason definitely giveth, but it can also taketh away and can play really hard to get. There are always teams that find that out firsthand every winter, and some out there are in danger of falling into the trap this winter.
Three teams in particular stand out. These are clubs that could have been expected to be big players on the offseason market—unlike, for example, the Pittsburgh Pirates—but are instead in danger of being chewed up and spat out by the offseason.
Let's take it away, starting with none other than the reigning champs.
Kansas City Royals
When we last saw the Royals, they were winning their first World Series title in three decades. Those were fun times. Filled with fireworks and champagne and everything.
Since then, though, things haven't gone so well.
It seems like every World Series winner goes on to suffer a talent exodus in the winter, and that's a tradition the Royals are keeping up. They've already lost ace right-hander Johnny Cueto and second baseman Ben Zobrist to free agency, and star left fielder Alex Gordon could be next.
The good news, such as it is, is that the Royals haven't been entirely dormant. They've at least re-signed Chris Young and replaced the departed Ryan Madson with old friend Joakim Soria. For general manager Dayton Moore and his crew, things could be worse.
But things do look pretty bad. With Cueto and Zobrist already gone and Gordon possibly next in line, FanGraphs' WAR projections for 2016 actually have the Royals pegged as one of MLB's worst teams.
That's a wee bit harsh but not totally off-base. The Royals lost a big-time innings-eater when Cueto signed with the San Francisco Giants, and they downgraded to Omar Infante at second base when Zobrist signed with the Chicago Cubs. If they lose Gordon, they'll be turning left field over to Jarrod Dyson.
And it does sound like Gordon is as good as gone. The word from Jim Bowden of ESPN.com is that the Royals are "lowballing [Gordon] with a four-year offer in the $12-$13 million per-year range." As Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported, it's no wonder there's a "sizable gap" between the two sides.
If you're expecting the Royals to change their tune and give in to Gordon, don't be so sure.
Though now seems like a time the Royals should be increasing payroll, Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes they're likely to keep their payroll close to last year's $115 million opening figure. Between their guaranteed dollars and their projected arbitration payouts, the Royals already have about $110 million committed to 2016.
That'll make it difficult for them to add significant talent in free agency, so their rumored interest, per Heyman (h/t MLB Trade Rumors' Jeff Todd), in players such as Scott Kazmir, Wei-Yin Chen, Yovani Gallardo, Gerardo Parra (per Jon Morosi of Fox Sports) and even Yoenis Cespedes (per Joel Sherman of the New York Post) should be taken with a grain of salt.
After all this, we don't need to make things sound any worse for the Royals. But because we're jerks, we will by noting the wolves are at the door. Elsewhere in the AL Central, the Detroit Tigers, Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox have all made significant upgrades.
But, hey, if there is one bright side for the Royals, it's that they may not have it as bad as their closest neighbors...
St. Louis Cardinals
You might say the Cardinals offseason hasn't gone...the right way.
Heck, we don't even have to get into the transaction wire to note as much. The Cardinals have been bitten hard by the injury bug. Steady right-hander Lance Lynn has been lost for 2016 due to Tommy John surgery, and all-important catcher Yadier Molina had to go in for a second surgery on his ailing left thumb. He'll be sidelined for most of spring training.
In times like these, it helps to have depth. However, the Cardinals have lost more of that than they've gained.
The two big losses are right-hander John Lackey and right fielder Jason Heyward. They were St. Louis' best pitcher and best hitter, respectively, in 2015, and their losses hurt all the more in light of how both left to join the Cubs' quest to dispel the Curse of the Billy Goat.
To date, the Cardinals haven't done much to recoup these losses. Their big moves have been signing Jonathan Broxton, trading for Jedd Gyorko and...well, that's it.
In their defense, the Cardinals have tried. They wanted to re-sign Heyward, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported they nearly signed David Price. They've also been linked to Gordon, per Nightengale, and Chris Davis, per Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports.
But now, they may be done trying.
"It's clear now this offseason is not going to have that dynamic signing that we tried to do with [David] Price and Heyward," Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said last week, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "There isn't anything now that we're chasing with a nine-figure contract. We can take the time to see what we have in the players we control. Obviously, we're always open to adjusting."
The notion that the Cardinals have bowed out of the winter's big spending theater might sound suspicious. They may not be known for dishing out the big bucks, sure, but this is an organization that just signed a $1 billion TV contract.
However, it's actually believable. The Cardinals need an ace pitcher, and the open market is out of those. They need a right fielder, and Gordon, Cespedes and Justin Upton all play left field. And though they could use Davis' power, maybe they're scared of the risk.
This leaves blockbuster trades as the only avenue for the Cardinals to add impact talent. But it typically takes young talent to acquire impact talent, and the Cardinals are short on that.
They don't have many expendable parts on their big league roster, and their farm system contains only two of MLB.com's top-100 prospects. One of those, right-hander Alex Reyes, was recently suspended for 50 games.
But hey, at least the Cardinals arguably have it better than one of their most bitter rivals...
Los Angeles Dodgers
All right, look: The Dodgers probably do have a master plan for this offseason. Call it an educated guess.
But goodness, are they making it difficult to believe they do.
The Dodgers started their offseason on a positive note by re-upping with left-hander Brett Anderson when he accepted his $15.8 million qualifying offer. They've since re-signed Chase Utley for some infield depth and recently swapped out three prospects for arguably three better prospects.
But the story of the winter in Los Angeles is not what the Dodgers have gained. It's what they've lost.
That list begins with ace right-hander Zack Greinke, who bolted to the Arizona Diamondbacks for a $200 million-plus contract. As if that didn't hurt enough, the Dodgers have also had a couple of deals fall apart. A trade for ace closer Aroldis Chapman fell through, and Hisashi Iwakuma returned to the Seattle Mariners after his three-year deal with the Dodgers hit a bump at the physical stage.
The Dodgers entered the offseason needing an ace starter and an ace reliever. Nearly two months into the proceedings, they've arrived at a point where they can't fill these needs on the open market.
Fortunately, they should be able to fill their need for a reliever on the trade market. Among others, the trade market has been said to include Andrew Miller, Mark Melancon, Jake McGee and Shawn Tolleson, according to MLBlogs.com's Jason Beck. Any of them should be in reach for the Dodgers.
But the club's need for a top-of-the-rotation starter looms considerably larger, and that's where the Dodgers are in a tough spot.
Most notably, they've been heavily linked to young Miami Marlins ace Jose Fernandez. But though they would seem to have the prospect depth for him, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com isn't so sure:
Elsewhere, MLB.com's Lyle Spencer speculated that Oakland A's right-hander Sonny Gray, who has a connection to Dodgers general manager Farhan Zaidi, could be a prime target. But there's no rush for the A's to move him, and they haven't given any indication they will.
As such, the Dodgers may be forced to settle for secondary options. According to Morosi of Fox Sports, those include Cleveland Indians right-handers Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco and Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi. Of that trio, Salazar or Carrasco admittedly wouldn't be a bad consolation prize for missing out on Fernandez and Gray.
But either of them would still demand a heavy asking price, and that raises another question: How far are the Dodgers even willing to go in trying to replace Greinke?
They're not lacking in prospect depth, to be sure, but Arizona's trade for Shelby Miller set the asking-price bar for true aces ridiculously high. In speaking with Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register, Dodgers boss Andrew Friedman indicated he's in no rush to pay any ridiculously high prices:
As such, don't be surprised if the Dodgers stick to their guns. Under Friedman, they've generally been averse to big risks. If the Dodgers settle for a guy like Odorizzi, we'll know they're sticking to those guns.
Mind you, this isn't the worst idea in the world. According to those projections we looked at earlier, the Dodgers actually have an elite team lined up for 2016. On paper, they're quite good.
But more so than any other team, the Dodgers should know that being good on paper doesn't necessarily translate to being good on the field. And with the Diamondbacks and Giants hot on their heels, they can't afford to lose an inch on the field in 2016.
In other words, it might be time for a sense of urgency at Chavez Ravine.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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