The addition of a second wild-card slot has had a huge effect on the MLB trade deadline the past three seasons. With so many teams on the fringes of contention, teams that have actually chosen to auction off assets have enjoyed a thriving seller's market due to the scarcity of real impact.
Entering the All-Star break this season, 18 of the 30 teams have at least a 16 percent chance of reaching the Wild Card Game, per Fangraphs' playoff odds. While teetering teams like the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers may add to the list of sellers, there again figures to be fierce competition for the top trade assets on the block.
With the league at a standstill for the next few days, let's round up the latest trade buzz roughly two weeks before the July 31 deadline, starting with a pair of Cincinnati Reds stars.
Astros in on Cueto
The Houston Astros have been the biggest surprise of the season, and despite losing the AL West lead they held for most of the first half, Fangraphs still pegs the young squad with a 56.2 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Consequently, Houston is looking to boost those odds with the highest-profile rental of the deadline period, per CBS Sports' Jon Heyman:
The Astros have keen trade interest in Reds starter Johnny Cueto, and it appears he may even be their top target, if as expected Cueto hits trade market soon, people familiar with their thinking say.
The Astros just fell a half game out of first place after a very nice first half in which they led the AL West basically the whole way, and one person connected to their team said that "they know they need a starter."
The Astros do have a nice one-two punch at the top of their rotation with All-Star starter Dallas Kuechel and potential Rookie of the Year Lance McCullers. However, apart from Collin McHugh, the rest of the rotation has been a sinkhole, especially after Scott Feldman's knee injury in May. Brett Oberholtzer and Vincent Velasquez have been roughly replacement-level starters, and the Astros need at least one pitching upgrade if they intend on swimming with the top contenders in 2015.
Though Cueto got snubbed of an All-Star berth, his numbers aren't all that far off from last season, when he finished runner-up in the NL Cy Young voting. His 3.06 FIP is actually lower than the 3.30 mark he posted in 2014, and he's cut his walk rate from 2.40 BB/9 to 1.67. Cueto has gotten opposing hitters to chase 37 percent of his pitches outside the zone, the fifth-highest mark in the league, as his swing-and-miss stuff is clearly there:
Houston's offense could use another table-setter besides Jose Altuve who can get on base, but pitching looms as an equally strong need. Cueto would only be an Astro for two months given his expiring contract, but he would also enhance Houston's chances of delivering a playoff berth ahead of schedule.
Bruce on the Block
Cueto isn't the only player who could ship out of Cincinnati, as right fielder Jay Bruce could also end up elsewhere come August. Heyman reports that the Reds are about to become full-fledged sellers, so despite being under contract, the 28-year-old could still move at the deadline:
Reds right fielder Jay Bruce is available in trade, league sources say.The Reds are expected by rivals to become a full-fledged seller in coming days, perhaps shortly after the All-Star Game here, but to this point the one name being heard is Bruce, which is somewhat curious since they have multiple big players who are free agents after the year, and Bruce isn't one of them.
ESPN's Buster Olney added that Bruce had been on the block long before Heyman's report, even though the media buzz surrounding Cueto has been much stronger in recent weeks:
Bruce has offered a proven power bat in the middle of the lineup for years and, according to Heyman, is under contract for a reasonable $19.5 million total through the end of next season (plus a $13 million player option for 2017). With at least two years of team control, the Reds might be able to extract as large a haul for Bruce as Cueto or Mike Leake, both of whom are free agents after this season.
After a horrid start, Bruce has heated up recently, posting a gorgeous .342/.390/.632 line in July. The poor BABIP luck that plagued him last season has begun to rebound, and with his lowest strikeout rate (22.2 percent) since 2009, teams in need of lefty power like the Angels and Royals could start a bidding war for Bruce's services in the upcoming weeks.
Padres Shopping Shields
The San Diego Padres were one of the biggest spenders this offseason, but the money hasn't bought them a contending ticket. Sitting 10 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West and 7.5 games behind the second wild-card spot, Fangraphs pegs the Padres' playoff odds at a minuscule 2.4 percent. Facing that bleak outlook, San Diego is apparently shopping one of their big offseason adds, according to Peter Gammons:
On the surface, James Shields has regressed from his Kansas City days, posting a 4.01 ERA that would be his highest mark since 2010 and a career-high 3.09 walk rate. However, as Beyond the Boxscore's Murphy Powell argues, Shields' peripheral stats suggest poor flyball luck that could spell a second-half rebound:
James Shields is striking out more than 10 batters per nine innings and walking nearly three per nine. If you prefer percentages, he’s striking out about 27 percent of the guys he faces and walking 7.7 percent, all of which are career highs. The home run rate will likely come down — it would be fairly remarkable to see that mark stay higher than 17 percent all year when the league standard is about 11 percent. Shields has made some changes with his curveball usage, and it's been useful for the most part. The strikeouts and whiffs are great. With a 3.21 xFIP, we might see some better overall results for Shields soon.
Powell notes how Shields' fastball and cutter have both gotten pounded for power this season, a troubling development given how often he throws those pitches. Nonetheless, Shields' batted-ball profile is virtually copy-pasted from last year, as he's not giving up much more hard contact. If the Padres really do sell low on Shields, they might be underselling his bounce-back potential.
Shields' market might not be robust given his age (33 years old) and $62 million salary over the next three seasons, though he can technically opt out after 2016, per Spotrac. Given his "Big Game" moniker, it would only be fitting for Shields to return to a contender in time for October once again.
*Unless otherwise cited, all stats via Fangraphs.
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