While trade chatter in the Hot Stove League has begun to regurgitate many of the same names we've been talking about for much of the offseason, a list that includes Carlos Carrasco and Jose Fernandez, one new name has begun making the rounds on the rumor mill—Jake Odorizzi.
Overshadowed in his own rotation by Chris Archer and the fact that he plays in Tampa Bay, which isn't exactly the planet's biggest media market, works against him in terms of the attention he gets, but it wasn't that long ago that Odorizzi was considered one of the game's brightest pitching prospects.
As he's just entering his prime, the market for his services figures to be robust. What follows is a look at just how valuable a trade chip he is—and the kind of packages teams might have to put together in order to facilitate a deal.
What's His Actual Trade Value?
The short answer is "whatever another team is willing to give up," and that's not only true in Odorizzi's case, but it also applies when looking at any player, in any sport, as a potential trade chip. But that doesn't really help us here, and it certainly isn't thought provoking or interesting at the least.
Thankfully, we only have to go back a few weeks to find a comparable pitcher that was traded: Shelby Miller. While Miller is the younger player, heading into his age-25 season, it's Odorizzi, who will be 26 in March, that comes with more team control—four years to Miller's three.
As for their respective numbers, well they're close.
Close, but Odorizzi comes out looking like the better pitcher, especially if you're a fan of WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Still, that doesn't mean other teams are going to line up and present Tampa Bay with the same kind of deal Arizona ultimately made with Atlanta to pry Miller loose.
After all, the D-Backs have been universally bashed for paying such an exorbitant price for Miller, one that saw them part with a legitimate pitching prospect (Aaron Blair), an underrated outfielder (Ender Inciarte) and a potential franchise player (Dansby Swanson), last season's top overall draft pick.
One executive told Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal that it was the "worst trade I’ve ever seen," while others were still trying to understand exactly what the D-Backs were thinking days after the deal was made.
That said, the D-Backs have pushed the going rate for young, controllable starters higher, and the Rays are certainly going to be looking for something comparable in return.
It's far to say, then, that it's going to take two of a team's best prospects, plus a third, useful (but controllable and relatively inexpensive) piece to even get the Rays interested in discussing a potential deal.
What teams have both the need (and necessary pieces) to make such an offer? Let's take a look.
Potential Trade Packages
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Dodgers Get: RHP Jake McGee and RHP Jake Odorizzi
- Rays Get: C Austin Barnes, RHP Jose De Leon, RHP Frankie Montas, OF Trayce Thompson and a player to be named later
We expand the deal to include veteran reliever Jake McGee, an impact reliever that is quickly becoming an expense the fiscally strapped Rays can't afford. Having missed out on Aroldis Chapman to bolster its bullpen, McGee is a fine consolation prize in LA, one that can thrive as a setup man or closer.
As for Odorizzi, B/R's Danny Knobler recently wrote that adding him would salvage the Dodgers' offseason, and, as usual, he nailed it.
Tampa Bay lands a pair of high-upside pitchers in Jose De Leon and Frankie Montas, the latter potentially becoming a late-inning reliever, another potential Ben Zobrist-type player in the versatile Austin Barnes and an intriguing outfielder, Trayce Thompson, who could develop into a perennial 20/20 threat.
St. Louis Cardinals
- Cardinals Get: 1B James Loney and RHP Jake Odorizzi
- Rays Get: 1B Matt Adams, RHP Jack Flaherty and OF Charlie Tilson
Note: Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Cardinals have reached an agreement with free agent starter Mike Leake, which would appear to take them out of the running for Odorizzi.
Another expanded deal, this time with the Cardinals absorbing the nearly $10 million that first baseman James Loney is due in the final year of his contract to entice the Rays, who would certainly like to get out from under such an expense.
With Lance Lynn out for all of 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and John Lackey having defected to division-rival Chicago as a free agent, St. Louis needs to bolster its rotation. Odorizzi, who grew up roughly 40 minutes away from Busch Stadium in Highland, Illinois, does just that.
In exchange, the Rays get Matt Adams, who comes with three years of team control and is a significant upgrade at first base, a high-upside pitching prospect in Jack Flaherty and Charlie Tilson, a speedy outfielder that projects to be a table-setter atop a team's lineup.
Texas Rangers
- Rangers Get: RHP Jake Odorizzi
- Rays Get: OF Lewis Brinson, OF/IF Ryan Cordell and RHP Luis Ortiz
Texas lands a young, controllable arm to add depth to a rotation that, outside of Cole Hamels, comes with its fair share of injury concerns. Yu Darvish, Derek Holland and Martin Perez have all missed significant time with various ailments, and Darvish doesn't figure to be ready by Opening Day.
The Rays wind up with three intriguing youngsters, including Lewis Brinson, who was arguably baseball's fastest-rising and hottest prospect throughout 2015.
Not only did he open eyes during the regular season but garnered praise for his work in the Arizona Fall League, with MLB.com's Mike Rosenbaum writing he "...was arguably the best player on the field in terms of his athleticism, tools and overall capacity to impact a game."
Luis Ortiz has all the tools necessary to develop into a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm, while the versatile Ryan Cordell, who can handle corner spots in the outfield, shortstop and third base and, like Brinson, has the power/speed combination teams covet.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk the Hot Stove League and all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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