Major League Baseball's annual offseason extravaganza known as the winter meetings will begin Monday in Nashville, Tennessee, with all 30 teams seeking to upgrade their roster for 2016 and beyond through trades and/or free-agent signings.
The four-day event is when most of the major free agents will find a new home. David Price got an early start among the marquee players available, signing a record-breaking $217 million deal with the Boston Red Sox on Friday.
Even with Price off the market, this year's free-agent crop is so deep that it won't take any attention away from what happens this week as the unofficial start of baseball in 2016 begins.
The Mets' Game Plan
Of the many dominoes that will fall in Nashville, arguably the most fascinating involves the reigning National League champion New York Mets.
The Mets were vastly improved on offense at the end of last year, leading the NL in runs scored in the second half after calling up Michael Conforto, trading for Yoenis Cespedes and getting David Wright back healthy.
Unfortunately, Cespedes is a free agent who will be too expensive for the Mets, and Wright's health is a three-year concern because he hasn't played in more than 134 games in a season since 2012.
New York's front office has to find at least one hitter this offseason to support what may be the deepest and most dominant pitching staff in baseball.
According to ESPN's Buster Olney, two big names are on the Mets' radar, albeit with one taking precedent over the other:
When choosing between Ben Zobrist and Dexter Fowler, Zobrist is the better player thanks in large part to his ability handle any position on the field except pitcher and catcher.
Fowler isn't a slouch, especially considering he will only turn 30 in March and owns a .363 career on-base percentage, but he will likely have to move to a corner outfield spot. He's been a dreadful defensive center fielder throughout his career, costing his team 56 defensive runs, per FanGraphs.
When Fowler eventually does move to a corner position, his .418 career slugging percentage looks a lot worse.
The Mets reportedly won't go to four years on a deal for Zobrist, according to ESPN's Adam Rubin. That could turn into a problem because Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported the feeling among Zobrist's suitors is he could be looking at a deal worth at least $60 million over four years.
Zobrist would be a perfect addition for the Mets, who also stand to lose playoff hero Daniel Murphy to free agency. Given the team's need, it would be an upset if Zobrist didn't end up playing in Queens.
Prediction: Mets sign Zobrist to a four-year, $64 million deal.
The Chapman Situation
It feels like a matter of when, not if, the Cincinnati Reds trade All-Star closer Aroldis Chapman. The flamethrower has been a hot topic of conversation dating back to July's trade deadline. In mid-November, Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com cited four people saying Chapman would be traded by the "end of the weekend."
Yet here we are—Chapman remains a member of the Reds, and the speculation continues. This is the week when Cincinnati general manager Walt Jocketty is going to deal the Cuban star, if he finally gets a deal to his liking.
The most intriguing match for Chapman and the Reds are the Houston Astros, who have the southpaw atop their wish list, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
The Astros were undone in the American League Division Series against Kansas City because they have a bullpen comprised of strike throwers who don't have overpowering stuff.
Chapman doesn't do anything but miss bats, striking out 15.4 hitters per nine innings in his career with at least 100 strikeouts in each of the last four seasons. It's a perfect marriage of player and team, especially with the Astros' young talent making an impact well ahead of schedule.
There are two problems for Houston in this scenario, however: money and prospects. Because of Chapman's success since arriving in 2010, he's going to be an expensive closer. Tim Dierkes of MLBTradeRumors.com estimates he will get $12.9 million in arbitration next season.
To put Chapman's projected salary in perspective, per Spotrac, Boston's Craig Kimbrel is currently MLB's highest-paid closer with a 2016 salary of $11.25 million.
The upside for Houston is Chapman has just one more season of control, so the team can get out from that salary after next year if it doesn't want to devote so much of its payroll to a pitcher who, as great as he is, will only throw 60-70 innings.
That's also part of Chapman's downside, because the Reds will have a high price tag on him to make a deal. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reported the Red Sox inquired about Chapman before striking a deal with San Diego for Kimbrel.
"The Reds listened to Boston’s pitch for Chapman but required more than the Red Sox offered for Kimbrel, and the Sox weren’t comfortable going the extra mile for a pitcher who can become a free agent after 2016," Cafardo wrote.
No one denies that Chapman is fantastic, but the Reds asking for more than two top-100 prospects and two other low-level talents, which is what San Diego got from Boston, for a reliever with one more year of control is insane.
Jocketty can wait for that kind of deal, but eventually he will have to recognize that it's not going to come. The Astros still have a wealth of talent in their system, with players such as Alex Bregman, Daz Cameron, Kyle Tucker and A.J. Reed, to build a solid package for Chapman.
The Reds have no need for an elite closer since they are in a rebuilding phase, so being able to find one impact talent in a deal will make this a good trade.
Prediction: Reds trade Aroldis Chapman to Astros for Kyle Tucker and Michael Feliz.
Late Free-Agent Additions
One notable development this year was that non-tendered players will come to Nashville as unexpected free agents for teams to sign.
Two of the most interesting names not tendered a contract were Pedro Alvarez and Chris Carter because of their power potential. They don't add value in any other area, but teams will almost always create space for home runs.
Mentioning players with a limited skill set who were essentially released by Pittsburgh (Alvarez) and Houston (Carter) is not normally a big deal.
However, Alvarez and Carter will be valuable assets for teams that are unable to make plays for major free agents and need offensive help, especially in the American League where these two can just keep their gloves at home and DH all year.
Teams such as the Cleveland Indians, Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics would make intriguing landing spots for at least one of these players.
Paul Hoynes of the Plain-Dealer reported the Indians have interest in Alvarez and Carter to serve as their designated hitter for 2016.
Alvarez is limited to being part of a platoon, but he does hit fairly well against right-handed pitching (.794 career OPS).
If a team could have unlimited roster spots, Alvarez and Carter would make good platoon partners because Carter has a .337 career on-base percentage and .440 slugging percentage against left-handed pitching.
Unfortunately, it's impractical to have two designated hitters on a 25-man roster. Carter would be a better option for the Indians, who only had 58 home runs from right-handed hitters last year. They are strong on the left side with Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley (who may have to start 2016 on the DL) and switch-hitters Francisco Lindor and Carlos Santana.
The Indians are not far from being a playoff contender thanks to a strong starting rotation, led by Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, the emergence of Lindor as a budding superstar and the strong, steady presences of Kipnis and Brantley.
Finding a true power hitter, albeit one with severe limitations, can at least bring the Indians closer to Kansas City in the American League Central.
Prediction: Cleveland signs Chris Carter to a one-year deal.
Stats per Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted
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