Without hyperbole or hesitation, one can reasonably say the Washington Nationals, on paper, have constructed one of the best starting rotations in baseball history.
Washington’s signing of Max Scherzer gives it a rotation that goes six deep, all of them currently qualified or previously capable of sitting at or near the top of it. That group, along with a seemingly hole-less lineup of position players, makes the Nationals World Series favorites right now. And there isn’t a close second.
The Scherzer deal, worth $210 million over seven seasons, also gives the Nationals an obvious surplus of starting pitching. Trading from that is not necessary, but it might be inevitable considering the team has been willing all offseason to move Jordan Zimmermann or Doug Fister, guys who can become free agents after the season.
And now there are reports that the team is willing to explore a deal for Stephen Strasburg, the franchise’s one-time golden child.
Yes, #Nats are willing to trade Stephen Strasburg if they don't get acceptable offer for Zimmermann (in event they land Scherzer).
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) January 18, 2015
Hearing #Nats RHP Stephen Strasburg is very much available and both sides believe it is time to move on. #MLB
— John Perrotto (@JPerrotto) January 19, 2015
With that reported, let’s understand a couple of things: The Nationals do not have to trade anyone, and they especially should not trade Strasburg, who is entering his age-26 season. Not now at least. Keeping him in the rotation gives the team the best chance to win the World Series in 2015.
However, the package of players Strasburg could bring back in a trade? Wow. It could be rich. Considering all three potential trade pieces, neither Zimmermann nor Fister would even approach the return package Strasburg could bring the organization because of his talent, age and controllability. He won’t become a free agent until after the 2017 season, will cost $7.4 million in 2016 and around $20 million over the next two years combined. He also projects to be a more valuable pitcher going forward.
Plus, with top prospects Lucas Giolito and A.J. Cole rising through the system, Strasburg’s absence may not hurt for long.
While we might never see another swindling like the one the Texas Rangers pulled over on the Atlanta Braves for Mark Teixeira, a deal for Strasburg could at least be in the same stratosphere for Washington.
The Nationals also must consider future needs. After 2016, center fielder Denard Span and shortstop Ian Desmond will become free agents. If both leave, the Nats must fill those holes, not to mention they may have a need at second base even with recently acquired Yunel Escobar in the fold through 2017. The haul the team could receive for Strasburg could fill at least two of those future vacancies.
Then again, there is that world famous, ever-true quote.
“You can never have too much starting pitching,” said everyone ever.
Virtually every team that has entered a season with a surplus in its rotation has not had it even by the midway point of the summer. Most recently it was the 2013 Los Angeles Dodgers who had more pitchers than they had rotation spots, yet the grind of a six-month season eventually evaporated a surplus that was nowhere near as talented as Washington’s.
Fister and Gio Gonzalez found the disabled list last season. Zimmermann and Strasburg have undergone Tommy John surgeries. It’s a fragile position. Depth is a necessity. It is not frill.
As a bonus, keeping their current rotation would shuttle Tanner Roark to a thin bullpen, immediately making it better until Roark is undoubtedly needed as a starter. And as a rotation fill-in, maybe no team in baseball will have one as good as Roark.
While the Nationals should not trade Strasburg considering the perch he helps elevate them to, it would not be a stupid or disastrous decision if they did.
In fact, it would be smart business if the Nats did trade Strasburg now. What the team would lose in terms of Strasburg’s value would be at least offset if not bettered by the players they would get in return. And if we are to believe sources for USA Today’s John Perrotto saying Strasburg and the team believe “it is time to move on,” then the Nationals risk losing Strasburg for a far lesser package next offseason or for nothing more than a compensation draft pick the following winter.
But there is also the now to consider. Owner Ted Lerner approved Scherzer’s signing. Lerner is 89 years old. He wants to win now, this season. Keeping Strasburg, along with Zimmermann and Fister, gives him the best chance to bring D.C. its first World Series in 91 years.
If Strasburg is traded, it won’t be a franchise-crippling folly. It will give the team an even brighter future than it already has as well as a cheaper one, though it would make it immediately weaker.
Trading a player who was once the most prized asset in the franchise’s history is not necessary, but it would be a major play toward sustaining future success.
Then again, for Lerner’s Nationals, the future starts in April.
Anthony Witrado covers Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. He spent the previous three seasons as the national baseball columnist at Sporting News, and four years before that as the Brewers beat writer for the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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