The dropping of the crystal ball signaled the start of 2015, officially designating the disastrous season of 2014 as last year's news.
When we discuss the Cincinnati Reds from this juncture, we discuss a new product. The Reds lack the potent starting rotation they once had, but they do offer some offensive prowess that many fans have longed for.
The Reds welcomed the new year by finally adding the coveted left fielder, even if it didn't quite have the luster fans hoped for. Marlon Byrd brings 25 home runs and a .445 slugging to the lineup. Does a lineup featuring Brandon Phillips, Todd Frazier, Joey Votto, Marlon Byrd, Devin Mesoraco and Jay Bruce inspire any more confidence?
The list of resolutions becomes obvious. The Reds don't have any dramatic resolutions like needing to shed 20 pounds or quitting smoking—just eating healthier or volunteering more would suffice. That's because the crux of what the Reds need is just health, especially considering the departure of No. 2 pitcher Mat Latos.
Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto officially account for new year's resolution No. 1. Injuries can happen to everyone, but these four Reds are arguably the most important in uniform. These guys have to stay healthy if the Reds have a chance of competing in 2015. Bailey will be asked to pitch in a spot that, by now, he should be ready for. But he can't deliver from the disabled list.
The second new year's resolution would be a vow to get on base. The Reds finished with the third-worst OBP in baseball. When you consider the absurd amount of one-run games the Reds were in, OBP becomes even more vital. Nori Aoki would have been an immediate fix to this enormous problem, but the Reds opted for a better bat instead.
Votto's presence will undoubtedly help the OBP, but you'd like to see guys such as Billy Hamilton, Phillips and Bruce all get their OBP closer to MLB average. Hamilton and Bruce both finished below .300. A sub-.300 OBP at the top of the lineup is crippling, so Billy Hamilton will have to grow up quick to stay there.
It's not that the Reds weren't making contact. Per Fangraphs.com, the Reds were No.7 in o-swing percentage, meaning balls swung on that were outside of the strike zone. They were No.1 in z-swing percentage, which accounts for balls swung inside of the strike zone. They swung a lot.
It could be a matter of plate discipline. The Reds are a very swing-happy team. Those who professionally cover the Reds often discuss Votto in a negative light, suggesting that his focus on OBP is misguided. What if the majority of Reds hitters were as selective as Votto? While it's unrealistic to assume everyone adopt Votto's tactics, a more selective approach seems needed for a team full of hackers.
Another resolution would be to cross the plate. Per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds led all of baseball with 28 runners thrown out at home. Again, considering the amount of one-run games the Reds played in, improving this is paramount. The removal of Steve Smith and the insertion of Jim Riggleman might be all it takes.
Finally, the bullpen has to be better. The Reds finished the year with the fifth-worst bullpen ERA and the second-most bullpen losses. It's possible that between the acquisition of Raisel Iglesias and the health of Sean Marshall, this might have already been improved from last year.
Jumbo Diaz was a genuine surprise, and Pedro Villarreal may have earned a shot at joining the bullpen in a long-term capacity with a few decent outings before the season ended.
The Reds at least offer a more potent offensive lineup, but this was the No. 3 starting rotation ERA in baseball, which was the reason the Reds competed to the extent that they did last year. The rotation, as of right now, is still a concern, so hopefully something is done to address that prior to Opening Day.
The lineup is better. Byrd's age is irrelevant as long as his production is there. And it is. Byrd is still hitting for power (25 home runs in 2014, 757 OPS). He also brings with him an O-WAR of 2. His overall WAR finished at 2.7.
The Reds lacked pop last season, finishing a mediocre No. 18 in team home runs. They also recorded the second-fewest hits in all of baseball. So between adding Votto and Byrd and the health of Bruce, it's almost absurd to assume the 2015 product will play similar to the previous one. That's a lot of offense the Reds went without.
We can't fool ourselves, though. After Cueto, Bailey and Mike Leake, it's pretty slim on major league-ready talent. This could be a problem if not addressed before Opening Day. Hopefully, the shiny new lineup can mitigate the loss of Latos and Simon.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com
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