Approaching a must-win NLCS Game 3 for the Chicago Cubs, their chances hinge upon solving New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom.
The stats heading in do favor the Cubs.
DeGrom has struggled as he's 0-2 against the Cubs in three career starts, posting a 6.46 ERA in the process, according to Pete Marzano of calltothepen.com.
This season, deGrom has given up eight runs in 10.1 innings against the boys from the north side of Chicago.
And if the the Cubs want to keep that trend and stave off an 0-3 series deficit, their explosive offense will need to do better than their team average of .159/.221/.238, the lowest numbers of all teams in the Championship Series.
Otherwise, the series is over.
But left fielder Kyle Schwarber said the Cubs won't roll over that easily.
"We're not going to lose confidence in ourselves and we're not going to panic," Schwarber told Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. "That's the big thing. It's hard to look at it like we're down two games. We have to focus on just winning the next game. That's our mindset."
Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant echoed his teammate, per Carrie Muskat of MLB.com:
The Cubs will be getting back right fielder Jorge Soler, who was scratched in Game 2. The temperature at first pitch will about 65 degrees Fahrenheit, per AccuWeather.com. Soler, who struggled in the colder New York temps, will get the start and could spark a lineup that has only scored three runs in the NLCS.
The Cubs could use the added pop because they rely on the long ball, leading the postseason with 13 home runs, nine of which came at home.
They'll need to be at full strength to help starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks against the likes of Mets hitters Curtis Granderson and Daniel Murphy, the two hottest hitters in the series.
And the Cubs will need to be at full strength to beat deGrom.
The Mets ace has been automatic this postseason, posting a 2-0 record with a 1.38 ERA and 20 strikeouts in 13 innings. Even during his "shaky" start against the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLDS, he only surrendered two runs and will be the key to the Mets' possibility of a sweep.
And deGrom knows how close his team is to the advancing.
"I think we have a lot of confidence going into this game," deGrom told Phil Rogers of MLB.com. "We matched up well against two great pitchers, and we got a chance to take a 3-0 lead. The guys are putting up runs for us, and our job is just to keep it close and let them do what they've been doing."
Mets pitchers have thrown balls 95 mph and above 41 percent of the time, according to Brian Costa and Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal.
Mets pitchers have thrown heat this postseason, and after Noah Syndergaard, deGrom is New York's hardest thrower.
DeGrom is the worst pitcher the Cubs could have faced this series in a must-win situation, a guy with swing-and-miss stuff for a team that struck out 68 times this postseason.
DeGrom's stuff has been so good, he's 10 strikeouts away from becoming the second player ever to reach 30 strikeouts in his first three postseason starts, according to ESPN Stats & Info:
The Cubs are going to be a great team. They made it to the NLCS a couple of years before we all thought and have the brightest future in the MLB.
But the timing is off. It's not their turn yet. They ran into a juggernaut of a rotation for which they won't find an answer, even with their best lineup for Game 3. Only one team (2004 Boston Red Sox) has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit.
Prediction: Mets 4, Cubs 1
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