Through four starts in spring training, Bartolo Colon has a 2.40 ERA, a .192 BAA, a 0.73 WHIP and 17 strikeouts in 15 innings pitched.
So, why am I arguing against this obvious Cy Young hopeful and godsend to the Yankees pitching staff earning a spot in the starting rotation come Opening Day?
History, for starters.
Colon, who didn't pitch in 2010, had a 14-21 record with a 5.18 ERA and 1.51 WHIP from 2006-2009.
The league average in that span? A 4.41 ERA and 1.39 WHIP—which, keep in mind, includes every pitcher in the MLB for those years.
According to league standards, Colon's pitching numbers haven't even been passable for the last half decade; in fact, with the exception of 2005, Colon has put up subpar numbers every year since his 2002 season.
Colon's horribly inconsistent strikeout rate has also diminished the last few years, dropping to a horrid 3.05 K/9 in 62 innings last season. The oft-injured Colon has also failed to top 100 innings since 2005.
But what about the torrid numbers he's putting up in spring training?
The question is answered right there: It's spring training, which is meaningless.
Colon could put up Cy Young numbers all spring and it'd mean about as much as being the valedictorian of summer school.
Let's look a little deeper into his starts:
February 26: With the exception of Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez, the entire starting Phillies lineup sat out. Colon gave up a run in two innings with no strikeouts.
March 4: Probably Colon's best spring start, which came against a mash-up of the Red Sox's Double-A and Triple-A teams.
March 9: Two runs in four innings against a terrible Pirates lineup.
March 21: Colon's only noteworthy spring start, pitching six strong innings against Tampa Bay.
How can Colon "earn" this spot based off such a small sample size, though, especially considering the quality of his opponents?
Two of the starts were against mostly minor league lineups. Unless an MLB starting pitcher puts up absurdly good numbers against a lineup like that (see Halladay, Roy), you cannot use it to predict MLB success.
So now Colon deserves a starting job because of a mediocre start against the Pirates, who have a minus-27 run differential this spring and a good start against the Rays?
Don't get me wrong, the Yankees' other options for the fifth rotation spot at the moment are almost equally bad.
All I'm saying is that there is absolutely no way that Colon should be handed this spot based off his spring work, and that there is not a single stat that points towards him having even a fraction of success this year.
There are plenty of things to look forward to from New York this year, such as how Phil Hughes will follow up 2010 or how Jesus Montero will look in the major leagues.
A possible resurgence from an aging veteran who hasn't pitched well for five years is not one of them.
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