Now that the Cliff and Andy questions have both been answered and put to rest, the biggest immediate concern across Yankee Universe going into spring training appears to be the two big question marks in the back end of our starting rotation.
How crucial is the back end of the rotation to a successful season for us?
Not as much as some might think. Certainly not as crucial as a kevlar bullpen, which we now have.
Hard as it may be for some to recollect it, the 2009 world champion Yankees wound up running their back end rotation by committee to a great extent, much as this year's team appears about to do.
And it worked beautifully.
Just compare the contributions of the team's pitching staffs over the last two seasons to see exactly where our wins came from—throwing out the games pitched by the rosters' No. 4 and 5 starters—and you may take greater comfort from the moves our Bombers made and didn't make this offseason.
In 2009, a championship season, the Yankees' top three starters—Sabathia, Pettitte and Burnett—combined for 46 wins while our bullpen accounted for 40 wins, the most in MLB.
In 2010, a year the team fell a little short of their objective, the team's top three starters—Sabathia, Hughes and Pettitte—combined for 50 wins while our bullpen, though improving its ERA by nearly a half run, produced just 23 wins.
Since the Yankees led all MLB teams in scoring both years, run support can be safely ruled out as a variable.
So, to summarize, our 2009 front-end arms and bullpen combined for 86 wins without the help of our No. 4 and 5 starters.
Our 2010 front-end arms—with four more victories to their credit—combined with our bullpen to produce just 73.
That's a 13-loss differential year over year right there.
The impact of those 2009 bullpen wins becomes even more pronounced when you consider 2009's championship-winning rotation back-enders Joba Chamberlain and Sergio Mitre combined for a mere 12 wins while last season's backenders AJ Burnett and Javier Vazquez combined for 20.
Those eight additional victories by 2010's No. 4 and 5 starters still didn't make up for the sharp reduction in our bullpen wins.
Put another way, bullpen wins could have easily been the difference between the Yankees winning the AL East or losing it last season—and, consequently, home field advantage in the playoffs.
The point?
Cliff Lee and his maybe 12 to 15 wins would've been helpful, no question. And Andy's return would maybe have provided 11 to 14 wins.
Maybe, that is, if both managed to stay healthy; hardly a lock for either of them.
No, what we truly needed a whole lot more than either of them this winter was to bulk up our bullpen into a bona fide scary no-man's land for opposing hitters.
Mission accomplished.
Consider the Yankees' penchant for long early inning at-bats and late scoring outbreaks, so much so they led MLB in comeback wins last season with 48.
How many more of those late rallies came up just short due to that shaky bridge from the sixth inning to the ninth?
Now, that's a bridge to nowhere for our opponents.
Am I saying back-end starters are a nonfactor? Of course not.
I am saying, however, that they're just not as big a factor as a nasty shutdown door-slamming pen; especially in the case of the Yankees and their present configuration.
By the numbers, at least over the past two seasons, the Yankee bullpen has proved to be a more significant force in putting up W's—and not just saving or holding leads—than our back end starters.
Certainly in 2009 it was the difference between winning a championship and just coming close, and possibly the difference between just coming close and no championship this past season.
Of course, I'd love to see Brian Cashman and the Boss's boys pull off a blockbuster trade for a Type-A starter in the coming weeks and months. And there's no reason to believe they won't.
When they do, it'll be Christmas in July.
In the meantime, though, there are plenty of young and old committee members coming to camp to fill the back end rotation picture out, and plenty to celebrate and anticipate come Opening Day.
You've got to believe the Yankees' front office was thinking about more than just shortening tough outings for a couple of mystery guests in the rotation when they snapped up Rafael Soriano and lefty Pedro Feliciano this offseason.
The way the former's contract is structured with opt-outs, it sure wasn't designed to lock up Big Mo's successor.
These guys aren't consolation prizes. They're key pieces in a proven strategy to win now.
Their additions leverage virtually every member of our relief corps into specific roles in which they can excel, and provide Joe Girardi with multiple options and a path to a win through any lineup, as long as our own lineup keeps scoring like it has.
We may be shy a couple of name brand back-end starters at the moment.
But no serious evaluation of the coming season should allow those relatively minor vacancies to overshadow the direct and major impact this bullpen is going to make in our win column this year with the rotation and lineup we've already got.
The pen is truly mightier.
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