Player: Nick Senzel
Position: 3B/SS
DOB: June 29, 1995 (20 years old)
Height/Weight: 6'1", 205 lbs
Bats/Throws: R/R
School: Tennessee
Previously Drafted: Not drafted
Background
Nothing sends a college baseball player's draft stock soaring quicker than a strong showing in the Cape Cod League.
Nick Senzel won MVP honors last summer.
Playing for the Brewster Whitecaps, he led the league in hits (56), doubles (16), RBI (33) and runs scored (34) while hitting .364/.418/.558 with four home runs and 14 stolen bases.
Also, MLB scouts voted him the Outstanding Pro Prospect and, just like that, he was in the conversation to be a top pick in the 2016 draft.
"If he's not the best pure hitter in the draft, he's in the top three," Baseball America editor John Manuel told Dustin Dopirak of the Knoxville News Sentinel. "I think he's perceived as one of the safest picks in the draft... There's really high confidence in the scouting community that he will be at least an average big league hitter if not an above-average big league hitter, and there are not too many guys who inspire that kind of confidence."
That's quite a rise in profile for a player who was not even drafted out of high school.
Despite going undrafted, Senzel started as a true freshman, with most of his playing time coming as the team's designated hitter. He went on to hit .315/.419/.420 with 12 doubles, one home run, 39 RBI and 14 stolen bases to earn Freshman All-American honors.
As a sophomore, he led the Volunteers in batting average (.324), hits (65), doubles (12) and triples (5) while playing alongside eventual first-round pick Christian Stewart.
Tabbed as a consensus preseason All-American this year after his strong summer league performance, Senzel has delivered with a terrific all-around junior campaign.
He's currently batting .352/.456/.595 with 25 doubles, eight home runs, 59 RBI, 57 runs scored and 25 stolen bases in 29 attempts.
Prior to Senzel, the highest-drafted player in University of Tennessee history was Todd Helton, who went No. 8 overall in the 1995 draft. Things turned out pretty well with him.
Pick Analysis
Scouts fell in love with Senzel this summer, and the praise has continued into what will almost certainly be his final season at Tennessee.
He may not have the highest ceiling, but his floor could be the highest among all of the college bats, and there's something to be said for selecting a player who is a safe bet to at least develop into an everyday player.
Baseball America sang his praises while ranking him as their No. 6 overall prospect:
His carrying tool is his right-handed bat. Senzel is a patient hitter with a mature approach and a swing that's geared up for line drives. He makes consistent hard contact in games and in batting practice. Senzel shows the ability to drive the ball with authority to the opposite field or to his pull-side gap. He hits more for doubles than home runs at this point, but he can show raw power in batting practice when he's asked to, leading some evaluators to believe that he will develop more game power as he continues to mature.
This spring, Senzel has shown significantly improved defense in the infield, shifting to shortstop later in the season from third base. He reacts quickly and shows solid first-step quickness. Senzel has average arm strength and projects to stay in the left side of the infield.
He runs well, with average speed down the line, but he has good base-running instincts, allowing his speed to play even better.
There's really nothing negative to take away from that scouting report, and if Senzel does indeed develop more game power than expected, he has a chance to be a star.
Pro Comparison: Anthony Rendon
There's a lot of lines in the above scouting report that sound an awful lot like descriptions of Anthony Rendon: a patient right-handed hitter with doubles power and the potential for more; a solid defender at third base who is capable of playing up the middle; average speed that plays up due to good baserunning instincts.
Rendon was the top college bat in the 2011 draft and a candidate to go No. 1 overall, but injury issues caused him to slip to No. 6 overall, where he was scooped up by the Washington Nationals.
The injury woes have continued in his MLB career, but at his best Rendon was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2014.
That year, he hit .287/.351/.473 with 39 doubles, 21 home runs, 83 RBI, 17 stolen bases and an NL-high 111 runs scored for a 6.6 WAR and a fifth-place finish in MVP voting.
A stat line like that is probably the absolute best-case scenario for Senzel, but he's capable of turning in a slightly watered-down version of that on a yearly basis if he can show all the same tools he has in college at the pro level.
Projection: Starting third baseman who hits for average, 15-plus home runs
Major League ETA: early 2019
Chances of Signing: 95 percent
Senzel lived up to the hype that comes with winning Cape Cod MVP, and his standing as a top-10 pick should put an end to his time in Knoxville.
All college stats courtesy of The Baseball Cube, unless otherwise noted, and current through Wednesday, June 8.
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