Never mind the National League East; there was a time not too long ago when the New York Mets seemed to be on top of the world. They were 13-3 through 16 games, the last 11 of which were all W's.
That seems like ancient history by now. The Mets began rolling downhill immediately after their 11-game win streak ended. Thursday, they hit a low point with a resounding "thud."
The Mets dropped an afternoon contest against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field by the final of 6-5, capping off a four-game sweep for the North Siders. It's a game the Mets stood to win after grabbing a 5-1 advantage, but the Cubs rallied for four runs in the fifth and took the lead in the seventh when Dexter Fowler scored on an Anthony Recker passed ball.
That was all too appropriate. Recker had smacked two home runs earlier in the game when the Mets looked like they were on their way. Then came his gaffe, which made those two homers distant memories. Take the 2015 Mets season and put it in a nutshell, and it would look something like that.
At any rate, here are the Mets, looking at a reality check.
They've lost 12 of 19 to fall to 20-15, and what was once a 4.5-game lead in the NL East was only one game when the Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres stepped between the lines late Thursday night.
Surprised? Don't be. As good as the Mets looked a couple of weeks ago, a comedown like this was always in the cards.
For starters, let's get this out of the way: This is baseball. No game has a way of correcting things quite like baseball.
Beyond that, however, it was hard to ignore the elephant-shaped red flag that was in the room when the Mets were good.
As Dave Cameron wrote at FanGraphs:
Among the 16 games they've played this season, we find three against a depleted Nationals team that started the year with a Spring Training roster, six games against a Braves team that projects as one of the NL's weakest squads, four games against a mediocre Marlins team that might be worse than expected, and three against the Phillies, everyone's pick for the worst team in baseball. In addition, 10 of their 16 games have come at home.
In so many words, the Mets couldn't have had it much easier in the super-early portion of their season. Heck, it would have been an upset if they hadn't racked up the W's.
This brings us back to what the Mets have done lately, which not surprisingly has coincided with a much tougher slate of games. Of the last 19 games the Mets have played, 13 have been on the road. To boot, they've also played some tough customers.
They began by dropping two of three against a first-place New York Yankees squad. Then they lost two of three to a Marlins club that had awoken from its early April slumber. Same thing for the Nationals squad that then took three out of four against them. Most recently, of course, they got swept by a Cubs team that has been making good on preseason hype pretty much since Day 1.
The only time the Mets have looked good in the last couple of weeks is when they took four out of five from a depleted Baltimore Orioles team and a lousy Phillies team between May 5 and May 10. That was a continuation of the trend that defined the Mets' early run of dominance: beating up on weak competition.
There is a bright side to be gleaned here, however. Wins against weak competition count just as much in the standings as wins against strong competition, and the Mets have what they need to make sure such wins keep coming.
With a 3.12 team ERA that's tied for the best in MLB, it's no secret by now that the Mets' starting pitching can hang with anyone's. Depending on how well top prospect Noah Syndergaard adapts to the majors while Dillon Gee is on the disabled list, the Mets could soon boast hands-down the majors' top rotation.
Backing up this rotation is a defense that's stronger than it gets credit for. Juan Lagares is an obvious standout in center field, but he's not the lone reason that, according to Baseball Prospectus, the Mets rank in the top 10 in defensive efficiency. As a whole, this Mets defense turns batted balls into outs.
But while starting pitching and defense count for a lot, it takes more for a team to hang with quality competition. And as you've no doubt noticed, the Mets don't have much more to give.
The Mets certainly have problems offensively. They're hitting just .236 with a .657 OPS as a team, and FanGraphs has them ranked in the bottom five in adjusted offense (meaning wRC+). Of their six hitters who have logged more than 100 plate appearances, only two have been notably better than average (100):
By all rights, things should be going better than this. Lagares was a better-than-average hitter in 2014, and Daniel Murphy and and Michael Cuddyer have track records as quality hitters that extend well beyond just 2014. It's no wonder they seem to be frustrating their skipper the most.
"To be honest, that's why some of those big guys are out there," said Terry Collins after Thursday's game, via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. "This is when they need to step up. This is when the Michael Cuddyers and the [Daniel] Murphys...need to step up to where all that leadership we talked about, this is the time we need it most."
Yet the Mets offense might only be so good even if Murphy and Cuddyer do hit better. David Wright will return from injury eventually, but he didn't exactly prove with his well-below-par 2014 season that he knows where the fountain of youth is. Travis d'Arnaud will also be back eventually, but it's not easy for hitters to come back from finger injuries and pick up where they left off.
If the Mets offense never drastically improves, they're going to have a tough time breaking out of the pattern of close games they've fallen into. And thanks to the club's bullpen, coming out on top in close games could continue to be tricky.
Mets relievers started the year off on a strong note but have since fallen on hard times. According to FanGraphs, they rank in the middle of the pack in Wins Above Replacement over the last two weeks. That looks like an accurate depiction of where the Mets bullpen truly belongs, as it's thin on talent without injured hurlers Vic Black and Bobby Parnell and the suspended Jenrry Mejia.
Again, things could be worse. The early hot streak the Mets went on may be a distant memory by now, but it did its part to push the Mets toward October. According to FanGraphs, their odds of making the playoffs are at 40.3 percent, fifth-highest in the National League.
But while they're technically alive, the Mets' playoff hopes might as well be on thin ice. David Lennon of Newsday is right about the Mets already being at a crossroads of sorts:
The Mets will have options if they decide it's in their interest to make a splash. Most notably, they have some solid young arms they could dangle in hopes of making a trade for an impact bat, be it for Troy Tulowitzki (a long shot, to be sure) or somebody else.
If the Mets don't make a splash, however, merely treading water might be the best they can do the rest of the way. And given that the Nationals are already hot on their heels without even being at full strength yet, that would more than likely mean conceding the NL East.
In so many words: We've seen the Mets at their best, but eventually they're going to have to decide how good is good enough for them.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted/linked.
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