Note: All team projections were found using the FEINs projections. An explanation behind projected wins, losses, and other stats can be found here.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks
After April, it looked like a foregone conclusion that Arizona would represent the NL in the World Series. After all, the Diamondbacks were 20-8 and three-and-a-half games over their closest competitor.
But the D-Backs lost seven-and-a-half games in the standings after a 12-17 May and were four games behind the Cubs.
Arizona then went 10-17 in June to fall to .500, and by then they were eight games back of the Cubs. From the beginning of May to the All-Star break, the D-Backs went 27-40 and lost 13.5 games in the NL standings.
Brandon Webb was superb in March and April, posting a 1.98 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 41 innings, allowing just one home run in those two months.
He had a .255 BABIP in those 41 innings, suggesting he was due for a downturn. He was—in his remaining 186 innings, Webb had a 3.59 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, with a more common .306 BABIP.
Webb's forecast calls for slightly worse numbers than his 2008 stats. FEIN projects a 3.35 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and 164 strikeouts in 205 innings, which makes him the No. 8 pitcher and No. 36 overall, a late third-rounder in standard leagues.
Fellow starter Dan Haren once again faded down the stretch last year. In 2008, Haren had a 2.62 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in 148 pre-August innings; In August and September, Haren had a 4.87 ERA and a 1.49 WHIP.
This pattern isn't all that surprising—in the last three years, Haren's pre-August numbers (2.93 ERA and 1.06 WHIP) dwarf his post-August numbers (4.80 ERA and 1.46 WHIP).
Haren is projected to have 186 strikeouts, a 3.46 ERA, and a 1.16 WHIP in 197 innings, which makes him the No. 4 pitcher.
But considering that he'll most likely give you a 2.90 ERA in the first four months and an ERA almost two runs higher in the final two, Haren owners should be ready to sell high after the All-Star break.
Fifth starter Max Scherzer will be the Diamondbacks' X-factor this year. Scherzer had a 3.05 ERA in 56 innings (starting six games and appearing in nine others) in 2008, and he had a 10.6-strikeouts-per-nine rate with 66 strikeouts.
That latter number is no fluke, as he's had a K/9 rate of 11.8 in two years in the minors. Scherzer's projected to have 77 strikeouts and a 3.71 ERA in 74 innings, but if he does put up those rates, he'll certainly pitch more innings than that.
FEIN projects a major breakout season for 21-year-old Justin Upton. Upton set career highs last year with a .250 AVG and a .816 OPS, but he struck out 121 times in 417 PA.
He's projected to have a .287 AVG and a .872 OPS in 317 PA, and in a full season with 600 PA, his projected stat line is 79 runs, 21 homers, 66 RBI, and 142 strikeouts.
The Diamondbacks' nine best pitchers in April had a 16-3 record with a 2.40 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP in 169 innings. In every other month of the season, however, those same pitchers had a 40-41 record with a 4.05 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.
Much of Arizona's late-season demise was due to their lack of pitching in August and September. With their great, young core of hitters, they have a serious shot of winning the division if they can just stay consistent the whole year.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
In any other division, 84 wins is no big deal. In the other five divisions last year, 84 wins would have equaled an average of 11 games back of the division leader. In addition, it would have placed you fourth in the division. But in the NL West, 84 wins puts you on the top of the standings.
The Dodgers were 54-54 when they acquired Manny Ramirez. They went 11-16 in their next 27 games and then 19-8 to close out the season. Ramirez had a .396 AVG, an insane .743 SLG, and a 1.232 OPS in his 53 games with the Dodgers; he had 17 homers and 53 RBI, which prorate to 45 homers and 139 RBI in 600 PA.
Ramirez is projected to decline significantly next year, with a forecasted .287 AVG and .925 OPS. Still, 81 runs, 31 homers, and 95 RBI would make him the No. 13 OF and No. 43 overall.
Matt Kemp had 18 homers, 93 runs, 76 RBI, and 35 steals with a .290 AVG—even though his BABIP was .363—in 2008, his first full season in the majors. FEIN's projection is low, but that's because he's projected to have just 456 PA.
In the 657 PA he had last year, Kemp's projected line is a .292 AVG, 20 homers, 97 runs, 82 RBI, and 32 steals, possibly making him a top-three outfielder in fantasy.
(As a comparison, the top outfielder, Grady Sizemore, is projected to have a .284 AVG, 26 homers, 112 runs, 80 RBI, and 29 steals in 723 PA; Sizemore's projected stats are worse than Kemp's if Sizemore had 657 PA—he would have six points less in AVG, two less homers, four more runs, seven less RBI, and three less steals.)
Catcher Russell Martin has had over 18 steals each of the past two years, and his total of 39 is 27 more than any catcher in that time. In fact, he's the only catcher with more than 12 steals in the last two years. Martin's also averaged 87 runs, 16 homers, and 78 RBI in that time.
Martin's projected to have a .281 AVG, 81 runs, 14 homers, 72 RBI, and 17 steals in 591 PA next year. He's ranked No. 1 overall among catchers.
Staff ace Chad Billingsley had a 3.14 ERA and 201 strikeouts in just under 201 innings in '08, after a 3.31 ERA and 141 strikeouts in 147 innings in '07. FEIN projects a 3.46 ERA, a career-low 1.31 WHIP, and 178 strikeouts in 186 innings. He's ranked No. 19 among starters and No. 78 overall.
In his first season in the majors after 11 in Japan, Hiroki Kuroda made a nice debut, posting a 3.73 ERA in 183 innings. But Kuroda was wildly inconsistent—he allowed one earned run or less in 12 starts (pitching six innings or more in all but one), but allowed four or more runs eight times.
That means he had an ERA less than two or more than six 21 times in 31 starts (he had one start in which he allowed three earned runs in four innings).
In three June starts, he gave up six earned runs in less than three innings twice...and had a complete game, 11-strikeout shutout in the other.
Kuroda's projected to have a 4.00 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP with 99 strikeouts in 145 innings in 2009, which is by no means spectacular, but it's not terrible either.
The Dodgers are forecasted to be two games out of the Wild Card at season's end. But with their powerful lineup, nasty bullpen (their top three relievers are projected to have a 3.32 ERA in 209 innings), and decent rotation, Los Angeles could be the one team no one wants to face in October.
That is, if they make it that far.
3. Colorado Rockies
A year removed from their first World Series appearance and second playoff appearance in franchise history, the Rockies went 74-88 and allowed almost a half a run more than they scored per game.
With Matt Holliday looking to become a free agent next winter, the Rockies looked to trade him in order to start a rebuilding process; in return, the Rockies got Huston Street, Carlos Gonzalez, and Greg Smith.
Street will take over for Brian Fuentes in the closer role, as Fuentes was signed by the Angels this offseason. Street spent his first four years in Oakland, compiling 94 saves with a 2.88 ERA and 1.07 WHIP.
Street's transition from the AL to the NL is somewhat diminished by the fact that he's moving into Coors Field, but it's nevertheless a positive switch.
Street is projected to have a 3.15 ERA and a 1.16 ERA, as well as 79 strikeouts and 34 saves, in 70 innings. He's ranked No. 8 among relievers (though No. 7 if you exclude Carlos Marmol, who was projected to have 34 saves before he lost the closer role), and he's currently being drafted as the No. 24 reliever in ESPN leagues and No. 18 in Yahoo! leagues.
No. 1 starter Ubaldo Jimenez set a career low last year with a 3.99 ERA, and after the All-Star break, he had a 8-3 record with a 3.68 ERA in 86 innings, including a 3.40 ERA after May. FEIN projects a 3.89 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 173 innings, which are very good numbers for his average draft position (No. 228 in ESPN leagues).
Third baseman Garrett Atkins had a down year last year, with a .286 AVG, a .780 OPS, 21 homers, and 99 RBI, all his lowest since 2005. But as Brian Joura points out, Atkins had a .307 AVG and a .823 OPS while playing third base and significantly worse numbers while playing first.
Atkins is projected to have a .299 AVG, a .838 OPS, 21 homers, 99 RBI, and 84 runs. He's ranked No. 4 among third basemen and No. 35 overall, but he's being drafted as the No. 8 third basemen in ESPN and Yahoo! leagues.
It should be noted, however, that at 29 and with just a one-year contract, Atkins may be on the move if the Rockies continue their rebuilding process.
Any move hurts him, of course, as Coors may be the best hitters park in the majors, and especially if he moves to the AL.
Todd Helton had over 620 PA in every year since 1999 before an injury limited him to just 83 games and 361 PA last year, and the aforementioned Atkins had to fill in for him at first base.
Last year was also the first year Helton had an AVG under .300 since 1998 and the first time in his career he had an OPS under .800.
FEIN is projecting a .290 AVG and a .856 OPS, accompanied by 12 homers, 63 runs, and 60 RBI in 504 PA. He's nothing to get excited about next year.
The Rockies' outfield is lead by Brad Hawpe, who had 25 homers and a .879 OPS last year, after 29 and .926 respectively in 2007.
Hawpe is being drafted as the No. 37 outfielder in ESPN leagues and No. 41 in Yahoo! leagues, but FEIN ranks him No. 26 with a projected line of 22 homers, 65 runs, 83 RBI, a .282 AVG, and a .869 OPS in 535 PA.
Whether or not this team finishes strong in 2009 makes no difference for the Rockies—they may even concede 2009 as another rebuilding year and try to trade Atkins, Hawpe, and Helton.
Colorado has secured its young stars—Street, Jimenez, Greg Smith (projected 4.08 ERA and 1.37 ERA), Troy Tulowitzki (.275 AVG and .772 OPS), Ian Stewart (.268 and .790), and Jeff Baker (.262 and .773)—for the future, and though 2009's outlook make be bleak, the Rockies will be back to the top of the division in three years or less.
4. San Francisco Giants
The Giants scored under four runs per game last year for the first time since 1992. Not coincidentally, 1992 was the last time they had been without Barry Bonds, whom they let go after the 2007 season.
Without Bonds, San Francisco's batting struggled mightily. In 2008, the Giants had no regular starter with an OPS over .800 and no one with more than 16 homers (in fact, they had the fewest team home runs since the 1995 Phillies). They had just one player with more than 70 RBI and only two with more than 60 runs.
San Francisco has no player that is projected to have a .800 OPS this year, either. Randy Winn's .754 OPS is the highest among starters on the team.
In his three full years with the Giants, Winn's averaged 12 homers, 80 runs, 17 steals, and a .290 AVG.
Winn's projected to have 13 homers, 77 runs, 16 steals, and a .280 AVG, which ranks him No. 29 among outfielders. He's being drafted outside the top 65 in ESPN leagues.
Meanwhile, the Giants found a gem in Tim Lincecum last year. The 24-year-old had a 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 265 strikeouts in 227 innings, earning him the Cy Young award. Lincecum's performance was worth just under $34 million, according to Fangraphs.
Lincecum should have another spectacular year in 2009. He's projected to have a 3.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 225 strikeouts in 203 innings (just under 10 per nine innings). That 3.08 ERA is second-lowest among starters, behind Rich Harden's 3.00 ERA.
He's ranked No. 3 among pitchers, mostly because he's projected to pitch less innings than the two ahead of him (Johan Santana and CC Sabathia).
Perhaps No. 2 starter Matt Cain is undervalued in fantasy leagues only because of his 15-30 record the last two years, but he shouldn't be.
Cain has had just 3.17 runs of support in his 66 starts, even though the Giants have scored 4.32 runs per game in every other game in those two years.
Cain pitched 200 innings each of the past two years, posting ERAs of 3.65 and 3.76 with over 160 strikeouts in both years. FEIN projects a 3.67 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, 178 strikeouts, and a 13-11 record in 205 innings, which makes him the No. 29 starter.
After two more years in Arizona, Randy Johnson signed a one-year deal with the Giants in an attempt to reach 300 wins (he's at 295). FEIN thinks he'll reach that and have his lowest ERA since 2004.
Johnson is projected to have a 3.72 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP, 156 strikeouts, and a 9-8 record in 154 innings in 2009, which would arguably make him one of the best No. 3 starters in the league.
Johnson ranks him No. 11 among starters and No. 50 overall; he's being drafted outside the top 40 starters in ESPN leagues. Snag him in the 13th round with confidence.
The Giants are forecasted to score 4.36 runs per game, fifth-least in the majors. With their superb pitching—projected to be the best in the league—however, 4.60 runs per game would be all that is needed to win 87 games and the division title. Just one more bat could jump them from fourth in the division to the top of the NL West.
5. San Diego Padres
Though the biggest change from 2007 to 2008 was the loss of Marcus Giles, the Padres went from 89 wins and tied for the Wild Card to 63 wins and 21 games behind the Dodgers. The Padres were remarkably 31-39 and just six-and-a-half games out in mid-June before finishing the year 32-60.
It's certainly never good when your offense is the worst since 2004, scoring just 3.93 runs per game. Or when your second baseman and shortstop combine to hit .221, with a .274 OBP, a .324 SLG, and a .597 OPS in 753 PA. Or when your catchers have a .203/.268/.296 line in 633 PA.
Regardless, the Padres still had a nice rotation, with three starters that had a sub-4.00 ERA: Jake Peavy, Chris Young, and the now-retired Greg Maddux.
Peavy has had an ERA below three in four of the last five years, posting a 2.85 ERA in 174 innings last year. FEIN isn't a fan of his high line drive rates (an average of 18.9 percent the last three years and over 21 percent last year), though, and predicts that his BABIPs of .285 and .286 the last two years will rise to .303 next year.
Accordingly, FEIN thinks his ERA will rise to 3.45 next year, with a 1.21 WHIP and 172 strikeouts in as many innings. Peavy is ranked 10th among starters and No. 48 overall.
Chris Young had a 3.96 ERA last year, his lowest as a Padre, and he only pitched 102 innings after being hit in the face by a line drive in late May. In 2007, Young had a 3.13 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 167 strikeouts in 173 innings.
But Young's had suspiciously-low BABIPs after moving to San Diego (.237, .255, and .266), and he's projected to have a .306 BABIP next year, as well as a 3.91 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP, and 112 strikeouts in 122 innings.
San Diego's bullpen had the sixth-highest ERA last year (4.45), but FEIN forecasts a 3.74 ERA and 1.30 WHIP for the Padres' relievers.
Heath Bell, now their closer with Trevor Hoffman gone, had a 3.58 ERA in 78 innings last year. In 2007, Bell pitched 94 innings in long relief and had a 2.02 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP with 102 strikeouts. FEIN projects a 3.53 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, with 24 saves and 74 strikeouts, in 79 innings. He's ranked No. 16 among relievers.
Three more relievers are projected to have a sub-3.80 ERA for San Diego. Mike Adams—who had a 2.48 ERA in 65 innings in 2008—is projected to pitch 60 innings with a 3.22 ERA and 1.19 WHIP; Justin Hampson—who had a 2.93 ERA in 31 innings last year and a 2.70 ERA in 53 innings in 2007—is projected to have a 3.64 ERA in 45 innings; and Cla Meredith—who's had a 3.09 ERA in 201 innings the last three years—is projected to have a 3.78 ERA in 74 innings.
The Padres' best hitter is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, who was voted to his first All-Star game last year after hitting 36 homers, 103 runs, 119 RBI, and a .879 OPS. Gonzalez also had 30 homers and over 100 runs and RBI the year before.
FEIN projects 25 homers, 79 runs, 85 RBI, and a .282 AVG in 601 PA next year, which prorates to 29, 92, and 99, respectively, in 700 PA. Gonzalez ranks No. 9 among first basemen and No. 93 overall.
The Padres definitely aren't as bad as their 63-99 record last year. Until they can get their offense back to the caliber it was two or three years ago, however, don't expect 80 wins out of San Diego any time soon.
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