This past offseason saw the San Diego Padres take all their chips and put them on offense. That's where they rolled the dice for 2015, and certainly where they needed to be better than they were in 2014.
Here's guessing that Padres general manager A.J. Preller is out there somewhere pumping his fist in triumph. It's early yet, but his gamble really couldn't be going any better.
The Padres earned their ninth win of the young season Monday night against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, and it was a romp. They collected 17 hits and 14 runs, easily outpacing Colorado's measly total of three runs. In the wake of this romp, guess who's currently leading the National League in runs scored?
Yup. None other than the Padres with 73.
As early as it is, it's hard to ignore the complete 180-degree turn happening before our very eyes. With an average of 5.21 runs per game, the Padres are doing darn near two runs per game better than last year's average of 3.30. That, as you'll recall, was easily the lowest average in MLB.
Of course, that number is what prompted Preller to go to work. He was a man on a mission to completely rebuild a lineup over the winter, and the early returns on his effort say he hit all the right notes.
The three big additions Preller made were to his outfield. He traded for veteran sluggers Matt Kemp and Justin Upton to play the corners, and for 2013 American League Rookie of the Year Wil Myers to man center field.
None of the three has been a disappointment. Though Kemp and Myers have only two home runs combined to Upton's three, FanGraphs can vouch that all three rate as above-average hitters in adjusted offense (meaning wRC+, a stat where anything over 100 denotes above-average hitting):
San Diego's new-look outfield owns a wRC+ of 143, which is millions of miles better than the 92 wRC+ managed by Padres outfielders in 2014. They've also combined for 1.4 wins above replacement, which is currently tied for second-highest for any outfield in the majors.
So that remark Kemp made in February about the Padres having the best outfield in the game? There's a lot of season left, but so far he and his mates are living up to that claim.
Not that it's all about the guys in the outfield, mind you.
New third baseman Will Middlebrooks is raking to the tune of a 120 wRC+ in the early going, which is a huge improvement over the 84 wRC+ the Padres got out of the hot corner in 2014. New catcher Derek Norris, meanwhile, is actually improving on the good production the Padres got out of their catchers last year. They combined for a 109 wRC+, and he's at 120 so far.
There's also a bright spot in San Diego's lineup that's not a new addition. That would be first baseman Yonder Alonso, who's hitting .364 with a .930 OPS. That's increased his wRc+ from a measly 93 to a staggering 167.
Ask him, and he'll tell you the new additions are part of the reason why.
"These guys make you get better," Alonso told Owen Perkins of MLB.com, referring specifically to Kemp and Upton. "They kind of they take it every day and know how you have to work on a daily basis. These guys are the reasons that other guys are doing well. Not only myself, but other guys.
"Those guys are the rock of this offense, the rock of this team, and that's the big reason why the whole team is doing well."
In times like these, with everything going so well, your mind tends to notice the question written on the elephant in the room:
All right, what's the catch?
Well, there is one. As you've probably suspected all along, this Padres offense isn't perfect.
In fact, there are a couple of areas where it's really no better than last year's offense. With a walk rate that's dropped from 7.9 to 6.1 percent, this year's Padres hitters are drawing fewer free passes. And with a strikeout rate that's only fallen from 21.9 percent to 21.1 percent, they aren't putting significantly more balls in play.
Put another way, this offense is in even less of a position to waste balls in play than last year's offense. It's obviously been doing a good job of this so far, but it'll be a tough act to keep up.
But doable? You bet.
Batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and slugging are two areas where this year's Padres offense is drastically outperforming last year's Padres offense. The club's BABIP has risen from .277 to .326, and the club's slugging percentage has risen from .342 to .419.
This speaks to a lot more hard contact being made, and that's not a total mirage.
According to Mark Simon of ESPN Stats and Information, no team made hard contact less frequently than the Padres in 2014. But as of the start of play Monday, Simon had the Padres in the top five in the National League in hard-hit rate:
Will hard hits alone be enough to allow the Padres to last as the elite run-scoring team in the National League? Probably not, as even hard-hit balls are only good for so much when you're striking out your fair share and not drawing walks.
But if nothing else, this hard-hit rate should allow the Padres to continue their dramatic improvement at finding the holes in the defense and picking up extra-base hits. That, certainly, is not a bad way to keep the runs coming.
So, by all means, don't be afraid to tune in to watch the Padres swing the bats.
Thanks to Preller's offseason hyper-activity, we've known for a while now that they were going to look the part of an elite offense on paper. And with the way they're swinging it early on, they could look like that on the field all season long.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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