The hype machine is out of service.
Disappointment has surpassed hope as the overwhelming emotion.
A scapegoat has already been unfairly blamed because it was the easiest, most predictable target.
As the three-month mark of the season and the All-Star break creeps near, the San Diego Padres are running out of excuses, remedies and time. The offseason makeover that made the Padres a popular pick for the postseason and led star acquisition Matt Kemp to call general manager A.J. Preller “a GM rock star” just seems empty now, a rebuild lacking enough substance to take the club into the realm of sincere contender.
The franchise that had finished third or worse in each of the previous four seasons currently sits in fourth in the National League West, 6.5 games out of first place and six games out of a wild-card spot. Kemp, Justin Upton, James Shields, Wil Myers, Derek Norris and Craig Kimbrel were legitimate reasons for the hype, but through 75 games the Padres are five games below .500.
And a little more than a week ago, manager Bud Black paid the price for the underwhelming first half as Preller fired the longtime, respected skipper. Since then, the Padres are 3-7.
I'm a big Bud Black fan. He's a really good guy and a quality manager. The Padres not living up to offseason hype isn't his fault. Too bad.
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) June 15, 2015
The offense, which was supposed to be dramatically better than it was last season, had a .241/.296/.371 slash line entering Thursday. Those numbers were all below league averages, as was its wOBA (.292) and wRC+ (88), although all these numbers were slightly better than in 2014.
Kemp has been the biggest letdown. After being about the best offensive player in the majors in the second half last season, he is having a brutal 2015 for his new team and was recently moved to the leadoff spot for the first time since 2010 in hopes of igniting his bat.
“Still have a lot of at-bats to go and a lot of things to do,” Kemp told Tyler Kepner of the New York Times this week. “I’m not worried, I’m not panicking.”
The pitching staff, which was supposed to be bolstered in the rotation by Shields and in the bullpen by Kimbrel, has also failed to live up to its billing. The rotation’s ERA, FIP and home run rates are all worse than league average, according to Fangraphs. And the bullpen suffers from all the same afflictions.
The overall defense is about the worst in the majors, and, as expected, the outfield defense is as well, Fangraphs numbers say.
Of the team’s next 15 games, 10 of them come on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and Texas Rangers.
“The Padres a little over a week ago dismissed Bud Black as manager. Last 10 games: 3-7. The managerial change so far has not worked,” analyst Dan Plesac said on MLB Network on Thursday. “This is a team in transition right now, and I think they, along with the [Chicago] White Sox and [Seattle] Mariners, need to get something going prior to the All-Star break, because I think the All-Star break is when you find out if you’re for real or if you’re on the outside looking in.”
Time is still an ally for now. There are still 87 games to play, and the rest of the NL West has failed to drown the Padres in their wake. Injuries to the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have prevented them from fully stepping on the gas, so the Padres are still breathing with more than half the season remaining.
Fan interest also remains. The Padres have drawn nearly 1.1 million fans this season, which is still in the bottom half of the league. But for the franchise, its attendance is up by more than 15 percent from last year, when it drew just over 27,000 fans a game. This season that total is more than 31,000 a game.
Talent-wise, few teams can boast what the Padres can. That is why the offseason was filled with promise. That is why fans are showing up. It is why the team’s record is such a source of news.
“We haven’t gone out there every day with high expectations since 2010, when we had a really good team and you just knew you were going to win every time you went to the ballpark,” Will Venable, the longest-tenured Padre, told Kepner. “We expect that with this group, too. We have some guys with some serious track records and a lot of success in this game.”
The hope is Kemp’s second half this year resembles his second half last year. It is that Andrew Cashner finds a way to start stranding more runners and giving up fewer homers. The hope is that Myers stays healthy enough to be a dynamic offensive player, and that Shields starts striking out hitters again and keeps the ball in the ballpark.
Their shortcomings have cost the Padres a manager. They have made San Diego one of the game’s biggest disappointments, and they have it looking up at three teams in a division in which it was expected to contend.
Time still holds hope for the flawed Padres to rebound. But the grasp is weakening by the day and by the loss.
All quotes, unless otherwise specified, have been acquired first-hand by Anthony Witrado. Follow Anthony on Twitter @awitrado and talk baseball here.
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