Paul Maholm may or may not be the best pitcher in the Pirates' rotation. But he is clearly the one to beat for front-runner.
A stalking horse, by definition, is a pretty good racehorse that may or may not be the best, but is certainly good enough to set the pace for the others. In short, his defining characteristic is reliability. That pretty much describes Maholm.
As late as the beginning of 2008, he was a distant third among Pirates' hurlers. But two more obviously talented throwers, Ian Snell, and Tom Gorzelanny, fell by the wayside that year.
Maholm, on the other hand, finished the year with an ERA in the threes, and managed to keep his monthly ERA below 4.00 in all but one month. He "regressed" in 2009, with a 4.44 ERA, but his FIP (sabermetric ERA) actually FELL last year, from 4.15 in 2008 to 3.83 in 2009, after having done so steadily since 2006.
Maholm is the only member of the Pirates' rotation that is clearly above "league average." Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, and Charlie Morton may all be, the latter two possibly by a wider margin than Maholm. but that's not a sure thing.
Early in 2007, when pitching coach Joe Kerrigan was asked who, of the then-existing rotation would become the staff ace, Kerrigan's answer was not the then-stars, Ian Snell or Tom Gorzelanny, but rather Paul Maholm, because of this "tough mindedness."
Ian Snell was actually a very "skillful" pitcher—at his best. What he lacked was mental toughness, to weather the inevitable setbacks, and come back stronger than before.
Toward the end of his tenure with the Pirates, Snell apparently lost the will to compete. He certainly didn't mind winning, but preferred to do so in the minor leagues where there were few batters who could handle a pitcher of his caliber, which is why he was traded.
Gorzelanny's problem, at least in 2008, was his uneveness; some of his games were fine, but every other outing (or so) was "lousy." The reason might have been overwork in 2007 that left him little to spare in 2008. That's management's fault, not his, but that made him a poor fit for Pittsburgh, a "steel city" that prides itself on its physical toughness.
Maholm, on the other hand, was the worst starter of the main four, behind Duke, Gorzelanny, and Snell in 2006, and ahead only of Duke in 2007. But he took the lead by improving steadily, while the others fell behind.
Both physical and mental conditioning helped in this regard, a fact that was not lost by the coaching staff, and other pitchers, who adopted some of his methods.
But the rest of the roster was so depleted by the downward spirals of Snell and Gorzelanny, that the Pirates had to trade Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte for two new starters, Jeff Karstens, and Ross Ohlendorf, as well as a pitching prospect, Dan McCutchen and Jose Tabata, a future replacement for Nady, in the summer of 2008.
Ohlendorf, at least, and possibly Charlie Morton, acquired from the Atlanta Braves in 2009 for Nate McLouth, may have more natural talent than Maholm. But they still have yet to prove themselves, which is to say that Maholm is, for now, still the "dean" of the Pirates pitching staff.
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