Tim Lincecum is 5'11", 170 lbs. There were nine teams that passed on this 2008 Cy Young Award winner in the 2006 draft. Six selected bigger pitchers.
Lincecum has been called everything from “The Freak” to “The Franchise”. I like to call him “The Video Game” because his statistics are just so unreal (not to mention he’s the cover boy of MLB 2K9).
Stuff
Lincecum’s fastball (two-seam) consistently hits 95 MPH but he can top 99 MPH. It couples light-speed velocity with some roller-coaster motion. His heater gets over 10 inches of vertical movement or rise.
He lets his curve-ball go from exactly the same release point as his fastball. This forces the hitter to make a quick guess and that guess is usually wrong.
Vertically, his curve-ball has 12-6 movement. Horizontally, his curve has 3-9 movement. It just dives away from right handed hitters, leaving the helpless batter flailing at air.
Lincecum perfected his devastating change-up in the second half of last season. His change-up drops over 10 miles per hour from his fastball. It also has some filthy horizontal movement and its final location is very unpredictable. I mean, this thing has got some serious wiggle. It’s nearly impossible for left-handed hitters to get a bat on.
Hitters have not been able to differentiate the change-up from the fastball and that’s a really scary proposition.
Mentally tough
After watching Lincecum’s dad break down his son’s pitching motion, I am convinced that Lincecum is a very cerebral payer. The Barry Bonds of pitchers, if you will. I am of the opinion that Lincecum learns his opponents. The more he studies the batter, the more dominant he gets.
Lincecum’s two inter-league starts: 12 innings, 9 runs allowed.
Looking forward to divisional play
BAA= Batting average against or opponents batting average
Lincecum vs. NL West in 2008:
LAD: 2-0, 1.64 ERA, .211 BAA
SDG: 3-0, 0.62 ERA, .172 BAA
Ari: 2-1, 2.64 ERA, .241 BAA
Col: 2-2, 4.38 ERA, .257 BAA
Three out of the four Colorado games were pitched in Coors. The ’09 Rockies are without Matt Holliday.
Total NL West innings pitched: 121
Fair and balanced
Lincecum is an equal opportunity dominator. In 2008, hitters from both sides of the plate had the exact same batting average against, .221.
His game is multi-dimensional. In addition to his incredible league leading strikeout total of 265, Lincecum forced 23 double plays.
Putting it together in 2008
BAA pre all-star break: .241
BAA post all-star break: .193
Strikeouts per nine innings, pre all-star: 9.37
Strikeouts per nine innings, post all-star: 12.06
WHIP (walks plus hits per inning), pre all-star: 1.25
WHIP, post all-star: 1.07
Lincecum is capable of being lights out
August ‘08: 4-0, 1.27 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, .144 BAA, 54 K’s/43 innings,
He locks down with runners on base
Lincecum pumps up his fastball with runners on base. He puts in maximum effort when it counts the most (don’t pay attention to spring training stats with this guy).
What he does is comparable to what Kobe Bryant has been doing lately. Kobe has turned into a pass-first superstar until his team needs him to score. In pressure situations, clutch Kobe steps up and knocks down the shot from seemingly anywhere. Likewise, Lincecum puts some extra oomph in his pitches.
Runners on base: .192 BAA
Runners in scoring position: .167 BAA
With the bases loaded: .100 BAA
He's still learning how to pitch deep into games
Sixth inning: .198 BAA
Seventh inning: .197 BAA
Eigth inning: .294 BAA
Ninth inning: .500 BAA
When he starts to feel more comfortable, later in games, his numbers could get even more unbelievable.
Adding a fourth pitch?
Lincecum also rarely throws a slider. When Timmy got his change-up down pat, his K/9 rose by almost three (9 to 12). How disgusting would he be if he gets any success out of a throwing a slider?
Quotes from ‘08
Adrian Gonzalez: "He's got great stuff...you can't look for a change-up with him because he throws 100".
Alfonso Soriano: "You don't know what he's going to throw".
Lance Berkman: "He has three almost unhittable pitches...when he throws those off-speed pitches where he wants, you've got no chance."
What about his stats?
It's anybody's guess what this guy's ceiling is. He is so great and yet there are still ways that he can improve his game. I believe that reaching 300 strikeouts is a possibility.
2008 stats
227 IP, 18-5, 2.62 ERA, 265 K’s, 1.17 WHIP
2009 prediction
240 IP, 19-3, 2.50 ERA, 295 K’s, 1.10 WHIP
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