Charlie Morton's 2009 ERA of 4.55 shouts "league average." But that's exactly what he is not, because he got there in a funny way.
My father (a retired civil engineering professor at Carnegie Mellon University) used to say that there were two types of "B" students. One type made "straight Bs." The other (rarer) kind made half As and half Cs.
The latter were the ones to watch, because if they brought their Cs up to Bs, they'd have a 3.5 average. And it might actually be easier for them to turn their Cs into As than for straight-B students to turn their grades into As.
On this scale, Charlie Morton's "average" stats might consist of two "As" and one "D." Or even three "As" and one "F." This statistical property is called "skewness." Which is all to the Pirates' benefit (holding ERA constant).
With their light hitting, the Pirates are underdogs any time their starting pitchers turn in even a "B" performance, because opposing starters are likely to make a similar showing. Then hitters decide the game.
Zach Duke is now such a pitcher: very few really bad outings, only a handful of brilliant ones. But he typically gives up a run or two more than the Pirates can score, which is why he is a "losing" pitcher, despite being (barely) above league average.
The Pirates are favorites only when their starter has an "A" outing. Then, it's a question of whether or not their batters can eke out that extra run or so above what the pitchers give up, to put themselves on top.
Morton was "unlucky" in this regard in 2009: three of his "A" outings turned into losses, leaving him with a 5-9 record, instead of the 8-6 he might have had.
On the other hand, while the Pirates are somewhat less likely to win a "C" start than a "B" start, the difference is less than for most other teams. That's because the Pirates win fewer "B" starts than most. By the same token, a "D" or "F" start isn't that much worse for Pittsburgh than a "C" start.
Meaning that a pitcher who pitches a lot of "A" games, then "kitchen sinks" a bunch of ERA-skewing runs into a handful of bad starts is a very useful pitcher for the Pirates. That pitcher is Charlie Morton.
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