Pittsburgh Pirates: Apparent Weakness Due to Strength of Schedule

The Pittsburgh Pirates have started the 2011 season with the losing record going into the last week of April that most observers expected them to have.

And yet, they are a stronger team than other versions who started previous years with winning records in April. That's because Pirate losses so far this year can largely be attributed to "strength of schedule."

The Bucs have won four of the series they've played so far in the season, and lost three. Normally, this should cause them to be better than .500, except most series wins were by narrow margins (2-1 or 3-1) and the losses by wider ones (3-0, 3-1, or 2-0).

But it's WHO the series were against that's important.

The Pirates are leading the season series against three of the four National League Central division opponents they've played. Only Milwaukee, the club's toughest opponent, has a winning 2-0 record against them (with a rain-delayed third game in the series).

The other two series losses were to champions.

Colorado, who took three of four in PNC Park, leads the National League West. Florida, who beat the Bucs 3-0, is only half a game behind Colorado and their own division leader Philadelphia, and is actually the wild card leader.

One can even make the case that Milwaukee should, or will soon be, the leader in the National League Central division. The only reason they are a game out of first is their 0-4 record so far against Cincinnati. Against third parties, the Brewers are 11-7, and the Reds are 8-11. Take away those four games (or hypothesize a 2-2 split), and Milwaukee is in first.

Here's another interesting statistic: Although their overall 10-12 record is unimpressive, the Bucs are (for a change) winners on the road (7-6). Only Philadelphia, Florida, St. Louis, and Colorado—the division and wild card leaders—have better road records. That's because Pittsburgh has played mostly strong teams at home and weaker teams away.

So the Pirates are much like what I thought they were at the beginning of the season, a weak team getting stronger. Still no match for top flight competition, but capable of beating other, weaker teams. The upcoming home series against San Francisco—currently a middling team—will be another test of that hypothesis.

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