Imagine a Pirates rotation with the 2007 ("star") versions of pitchers Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny, together with Paul Maholm and Zach Duke at their later (2008-2009) selves.
Imagine that the fifth starter is actually better than fifth starter-caliber.
That's what the Pirates may finally have in 2010.
Old Pirate standbys Maholm and Duke are (slightly) better than league average pitchers (by half a game or so). They don't look that way because they've had less than league average run support.
Ross Ohlendorf and Charlie Morton are probably decidedly better than league average starters. That's not a given, because neither of them has distinguished himself on a full-career basis.
Ohlendorf's case for greatness is best made on a "most recent showing" basis. He's had two months or so of an ERA on either side of 3.00, down sharply from an earlier tally around 4.50.
This, in turn, appears to be tied to adjustments that he made to his delivery last summer. We'll see if this improvement holds up in full or in part (let's say to around 3.50) when the new season begins.
Morton is best analyzed by a "throw out the worst grade" analysis. In his case, that was the 10-run, 90.00 ERA, one-inning start against the Chicago Cubs in Wrigley Field.
It's true that ANYONE's ERA will improve if you throw out their worst outing—but not to the degree of Morton.
Meaning that the ERA from his "median" start is in the low threes, actually lower than most pitchers', while his high "cumulative" number is skewed more than others' by a few outliers.
For the first time, the Pirates even have a choice of fifth starter instead of having to "improvise" with the likes of Matt Morris or Phil Dumatrait. They include Kevin Hart, acquired in the Tom Gorzelanny trade in the summer of 2009, and Dan McCutchen, acquired a year earlier in 2008.
McCutchen's starting from a higher base, but Hart is widely perceived as having the better chance to improve. Brad Lincoln may also come up from the minors to fill the fifth slot.
All this won't be enough to get the Pirates back to even .500 if their hitting continues to be below league average.
At the same time, though, starting pitching no longer figures to be the liability that it has been in years past.
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