It can't possibly be all bad.
Predictions for the Pirates in 2010 run from bleak (they might only lose 90 games) to abysmal (they probably will lose 120 games) to fanciful (they will win it all).
The truth, as is usually the case, likely lies somewhere in between (and around 75 wins).
As crazy as it sounds, its probably no longer a matter of if the Pirates will turn things around, but more a matter of when .
Bob Nutting certainly loaded his own executioner's gun when he said they were going to start winning "now" at a Piratefest that was more Gestapo interrogation than pleasant bistro chat.
If the team wins more games and starts to rebound, Nutting will look like Nostradamus. If they flop again, he'll be running for his life.
He has about two or three years to figure out which route he'll be taking.
People who think that the Pirates are going to magically return to postseason play this season are likely drinking a little too much of the party punch. But they might not be wrong by that much.
The pieces are finally there. Let's have a look.
Farm System
Where we once saw "top" prospects (cue the laugh track) Bryan Bullington, Bobby Bradley, and J.J. Davis, we now have (okay stop laughing) Pedro Alvarez, Jose Tabata, Brad Lincoln, and others.
The reality when Neal Huntington arrived in 2007 was that the Pirates had a farm system full of highly touted, but totally inept, players. Bullington was allergic to the strike zone and to getting outs, Davis was allergic to hitting, and Bradley was just allergic to baseball.
And those were only some of the biggest failures.
Enter Huntington, who immediately set to work at fixing the farm system, also known as the life blood of a small market franchise hoping to compete in a big market world.
Two years later, the Pirates' system ranks 16th in the majors, which is respectable. I'd say they are probably a few notches better than that, and that they have somewhere between 35 and 45 players who could eventually make some (even small) contribution to the big league club.
Two years ago, they ranked almost dead last and had maybe five players who could have won bench jobs or middle relief spots in the majors.
Yes, it was really that bad.
The Pirates have drafted smart the last two years and haven't skimped on contracts either. As 2010 dawns, the Pirates have a top-10 prospect (Alvarez, No. 8) and another top-100 prospect (Tony Sanchez, No. 79).
They also have three players (Alvarez, Lincoln, and Tabata) who could be on the big league roster by season's end.
The future is, once again, bright.
Veterans
Once again, the Pirates have shed themselves of expensive veterans who were either older (Jack Wilson, Freddy Sanchez), too expensive (Jason Bay), or under-performing (Matt Morris and a lot of others).
Instead, the team has only a handful of veterans, most on one year deals while the club develops more of its younger players.
Where as extending offers to Wilson or Sanchez would have been unwise, as would have been approaching Bay on the open market, offering short deals to Octavio Dotel, Brenden Donnelly, Ryan Church make sense.
As evidenced by the club's roughly $35 million payroll, no one is expensive.
This works effectively in two ways.
There are no bad contracts (anyone remember Jason Kendall?) to move when a younger player is ready to take over. If, for instance, Evan Meek is ready to assume the closer's role, the team will not have trouble moving Dotel. At worst, he walks at the end of the year.
It also gives the team limited liability for failures.
Bobby Crosby is a great case here. Sure, they are paying him $1.5 million, money I won't make in a few decades, but in the baseball spectrum, that's cheap.
If Crosby re-energizes his flagging career, he's either a permanent piece at short, a trade chip at the deadline, or even a potential Type A or B free agent (draft picks) in the winter.
Instead of signing veterans the way the team used to (when Reggie Sanders and Kenny Lofton were supposed to sell tickets for a sub-.500 team), they are being brought in as complimentary pieces, mentors, and placeholders.
Starting Rotation
Paul Maholm, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton, Daniel McCutchen/Kevin Hart
What strikes you most about that list?
Might it be that all six players were on the team at the end of last season?
Might it be that the top three all enjoyed at least reasonable success in 2009?
Might it be that three of those names were here last year at this time?
It doesn't really matter what jumps out most, just that this rotation has potential.
Joe Kerrigan returned the Pirates' rotation to a respectable level last season. The biggest danger this year is that Zach Duke will wear down late again, but the team is dedicated to correcting his workload.
Ohlendorf is not a typical ace, but he will likely lead the staff. He has plus stuff and good zip. He also knows how to get outs. I'd say he's a bet for double digit victory totals in 2010.
Maholm regressed, but he was bothered by injuries and often victimized by a manager who left him on the hill far too long. He should return to form this year and could post a double-digit win total.
Duke was great in the first half, earning his first All-Star nod, but wore down and fell apart down the stretch. Kerrigan says his workload will be monitored closely this season, so its likely that Duke will be able to put together a full, successful year.
Morton was quixotic last season, coming over from the Braves in the Nate McLouth deal. He has great stuff and his minor league numbers are encouraging. Morton should benefit from Kerrigan's guidance and an improved offseason regimen. I'd say he's good for 8-10 wins.
The fifth starter spot will be won by one of two candidates, although Brad Lincoln is pushing hard to be in the rotation and could play his way in by mid-season, particularly if someone struggles. Of the two early favorites, Kevin Hart seems to be the front-runner, although Daniel McCutchen is likely to be a strong challenger.
At this point, I'd say it's Hart's to lose but, that whoever wins, will be on a short leash once the season starts. This team has too much pitching talent to wait around for a struggling starter.
Bullpen
Name the Pirates likely bullpen. And don't cheat.
If you can't, it's probably because this year's 'pen won't look anything at all like last year's incarnation. That's a good thing. Trust me.
Octavio Dotel takes over for Matt Capps at the end of games. Dotel has an injury history, but his stuff and ability is unquestionable. If he's healthy, the team should have a good closer.
Setting him up will be some combination of Evan Meek, Joel Hanrahan, and Brenden Donnelly. Javier Lopez might also play his way into that mix. That's a big improvement, but last year's set up crew wasn't the team's biggest problem.
Middle relief will be better. The pool is wide open here, but it's safe to say that either one of Jeff Karstens, Chris Jakubauskas, or D.J. Carrasco will make it as a long man or spot starter and that one of the many non-roster players will emerge to fill the remaining space.
There aren't really many weak links in the Pirates' bullpen now, and there seems to be plenty of help in the system should they need to change out some of the arms.
Offense
Andrew McCutchen (CF), Lastings Millege (LF), Garrett Jones (RF), Jeff Clement (1B), Akinori Iwamura (2B), Andy LaRoche (3B), Ronny Cedeno (SS), Ryan Doumit (C)
The Pirates will benefit from a full season of McCutchen and the finishes by Jones and Millege are quite promising. If both players can build on that, then the Pirates will have one of the majors' best outfields.
The infield is a bundle of questions. The arrival of Alvarez will dictate what happens there, as will the play of Jeff Clement. As it stands, that's a pretty good group that will only improve with the addition of the powerful Alvarez.
Andy LaRoche is the biggest question. His bat hasn't really played well in the majors, although he recovered toward the end of the season. If he can come out swinging and hit for a better average, he will be hard to sit down when Alvarez comes calling.
That would be a nice problem to have. Iwamura is the highest paid Pirate currently, but could be trade bait if LaRoche hits and Alvarez arrives like McCutchen did last year.
Of the starters (including pitchers) the only major trade candidate is Doumit, and the team for once isn't shopping anyone. They'd make a deal if it was worth it, but won't deal Doumit for peanuts and crackerjacks.
Cedeno could be pushed by Bobby Crosby, but is likely to retain his spot at least initially. His defense is good and he doesn't swing a bad bat, so he's a safe bet to be somewhere on the roster.
Bench
Bobby Crosby, Ryan Church, Jason Jaramillo, Delwyn Young, Ramon Vazquez
This is where it gets hard. There's plenty of competition for these spots.
In this scenario, the team doesn't keep Rule-5 pick John Raynor or last year's starting right fielder Brandon Moss. Also not making the cut would be Neil Walker and Steve Pearce, both former top prospects who are fast falling from favor.
Crosby will almost certainly make the bench if he does not unseat Cedeno at short. Church is also a virtual lock. Both newcomers will be the primary backups at key positions.
Jaramillo makes it again as the backup catcher. His experience and his good work last season while filling in for Ryan Doumit give him the edge over other catchers in camp.
Young and Vazquez round things out, although they are, in my opinion, the two players on this list most likely to be left out if someone has a monster camp.
Is this a good bench? Defensively, I'd say it's one of the best in the majors. As pinch hitters, they leave a good bit to be desired. Young should hit well, as should Church. The others are all extremely streaky.
The comforting thought is that there are a bunch of players waiting to take these spots if anyone struggles.
So there you have it. This is a much better team, regardless of cost, than the one that broke camp in Bradenton last March. They have a chance to gel and finally begin the long journey back to respectability.
It should be fun to watch.
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