All right, the Pittsburgh Pirates began 2010 by winning two out of three at home, then lost two out of three each in two road series, for a tally of 4-5.
At that rate, alternating an extra win at home and an extra loss on the the road, would put them at .500.
And their record, so far, has been compiled against three fairly redoubtable teams, but all outside their division.
The next six games will be played at home, against Cincinnati and Milwaukee. These are teams that are considered slightly less tough than the ones that the Pirates have just played—based on their records against third parties.
But these opponents have in the past actually given the Pirates more trouble than most. And because the games are at home, the onus is for the Pirates to win a majority of them to compensate for their inevitable majority losses on the road.
Both division rivals are also low-budget, which is to say relatively young teams. But their young players seem to be better than ours, head to head, which is to say that they have been the winners in most past contests.
These advantages don't seem to loom so large against third parties, which is to say that they don't necessarily do better than the Pirates against, say, the western teams that the Bucs just played.
Pittsburgh actually won the home series against Milwaukee last year, just barely, by a score of 5-3. They lost the season series by a wide margin, however, because they haven't won any of their last 20 games in Miller Park.
On the other hand, Pittsburgh started last season 4-4 against Cincinnati, then went 1-9 in the final ten games, losing both at home and in Great American Park.
The Pirates are now hitting better than their opponents. But that may not last because they started off the year with an uncharacteristically strong showing at the plate.
The greater danger is Pirates' pitching, which is inconsistent. Even when they are scoring plenty of runs (like so far this year), they give up more than they score.
Meaning that these two teams figure to run up higher tallies against the Bucs than their past records would suggest.
These intradivisional games are more critical than the ones that the Pirates have played for two reasons.
One, the largest number of games are played against division rivals, and two, these games basically count for double, because a Pirates win is automatically a loss for a rival in the division race, and vice-versa.
In order to amount to anything, the Pirates will have to do better against division opponents than they have done in the past. They could start by winning both home series, an easier task than winning on the road.
Here's what the possible outcomes could portend for the year:
In the unlikely event that the Pirates win five or six of these six games, giving them a winning record to date, they will have set back one or both major rivals, and may actually have a chance to make a mark in the National League Central Division this year.
Four wins would be "par for the course," and give the Pirates a chance at approaching a .500 record in 2010.
A three-win result would not be unexpected, but barely being able to maintain .500 at home would suggest a decidedly less than .500 result for the year; maybe a win total in the low 70s.
A result of two or fewer wins on the coming homestand would indicate the same old Pirates, with the question being over or under 63 wins for the season.
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