Dan McCutchen has won the "fifth starter" job for the Pittsburgh Pirates beating out Kevin Hart. The FIRST fifth starter role, that is.
But if history holds, there will be plenty more "fifth starter" chances for people like Hart, and even Jeff Karstens.
Last year, according to FanGraph's Marc Hulet, only two teams, the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs, had five full time starters who all pitched in 24 or more games.
By this definition, the Pirates had only three such starters in 2009: This year's home opening staff, Zach Duke, Ross Ohlendorf, and former ace Paul Maholm. You could say that Ian Snell and Charlie Morton together filled out a "fourth starter" spot, and that Jeff Karstens and Kevin Hart were together their "fifth starter."
There is always the possibility that Dan McCutchen won't "stick" in the majors. But let's say that he does. There is a larger chance that one of the top four starters will be injured, or traded, moving McCutchen up to fourth, and clearing a place for another "fifth" starter.
This is basically what happened last year to Charlie Morton (who originally joined the Pirates as a "fifth" starter), after the trades of Snell and Tom Gorzelanny (the latter for Hart). So you could look at the fifth starter spot as an "auditioning" ground for higher spots.
FanGraphs' Hulet also helpfully described the three types of pitchers that should share the fifth starter role. 1) a veteran long reliever who should be a starter situationally 2) a reasonably promising minor leaguer who has only recently had his first taste of the majors and 3) a "veteran" transitioner who has been back and forth between the majors and the minors.
These three men, on the Pirates' staff, are Jeff Karstens, Dan McCutchen, and Kevin Hart.
Karstens is the most experienced of the three. Atlhough better than the average long reliever, he also apparently lacks the endurance to be more than an occasional starter.
But he seems to pitch well against certain teams, like the Chicago Cubs, particularly in Wrigley Field, and the Houston Astros. If Karstens started in most series against the Cubs and Astros, that would account for eight to 10 starts that would constitute a one-third "starter" workload.
These also happen to be two teams that give Charlie Morton the fits. So Karstens could substitute for Morton outright, against these teams, or at least push him back a game, into the next series.Then another fifth starter could start in the following series.
McCutchen is the greatest unknown. He compiled good numbers in the minors, although that hasn't yet translated into good performance in the majors.
Let's hope that he isn't another John van Benschoten, "lights out" in the minors, couldn't hack it in the majors. But we won't know, one way or another, until he gets the shot at the majors that he has just earned.
Kevin Hart, at least, is a "known" quantity. He is a high-ceiling thrower that doesn't quite have it all together, especially emotionally. The demotion to the minors is the best thing that could have happened to him just now.
But it's unlikely that he'll stay there long once he finds himself. And he is noted for a "good attitude" that has caused managers in both Chicago and Pittsburgh to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Hart WAS on a roll early last year, starting with a 4-2 record in Chicago. But he was also surrounded by veteran pitchers, who may have overawed opposing teams. Hart may also have "picked up" things by osmosis, things that he may have been asked to "unlearn" with the Pirates. These issues have all worked against him in Pittsburgh.
There are plenty of pitchers with promise who also really shouldn't be year-round throwers. But they also need to be worked into the rotation so that they can show what they can do. That's what the fifth starter slot is really for.
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